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© OECD/IEA 2012 World Energy Outlook 2012 Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director, IEA Warszawa, 14 December 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012 The context Foundations of global energy system shifting Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries Retreat from nuclear in some others Signs of increasing policy focus on energy efficiency All-time high oil prices acting as brake on global economy Divergence in natural gas prices affecting Europe (with prices 5-times US levels) and Asia (8-times) Symptoms of an unsustainable energy system persist Fossil fuel subsidies up almost 30% to $523 billion in 2011, led by MENA CO 2 emissions at record high, while renewables industry under strain Despite new international efforts, 1.3 billion people still lack electricity
© OECD/IEA 2012 Emerging economies steer energy markets Share of global energy demand Global energy demand rises by over one-third in the period to 2035, underpinned by rising living standards in China, India & the Middle East 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 197520102035 Middle East India China OECD Non-OECDRest of non-OECD 6 030 Mtoe12 380 Mtoe16 730 Mtoe
© OECD/IEA 2012 A US oil & gas transformation United States oil and gas production The surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implications well beyond the United States Unconventional gas Conventional gas Unconventional oil Conventional oil mboe/d 5 10 15 20 25 1980199020002010202020302035
© OECD/IEA 2012 Iraq oil poised for a major expansion Iraq oil poised for a major expansion Iraq oil production Iraq accounts for 45% of the growth in global production to 2035; by the 2030s it becomes the second-largest global oil exporter, overtaking Russia 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 201220202035 mb/d North Centre South Iraq oil exports 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 201220202035 mb/d Other Asia
© OECD/IEA 2012 Middle East oil to Asia: a new silk road Middle East oil export, by destination By 2035, almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports go to Asia; North Americas emergence as a net exporter accelerates the eastward shift in trade 7 United StatesKorea & JapanEuropeChinaIndia mb/d 2000 2011 2035 1 2 3 4 5 6
© OECD/IEA 2012 Natural gas: towards a globalised market Major global gas trade flows, 2010 Rising supplies of unconventional gas & LNG help to diversify trade flows, putting pressure on conventional gas suppliers & oil-linked pricing mechanisms Major global gas trade flows, 2035
© OECD/IEA 2012 Different trends in oil & gas import dependency While dependence on imported oil & gas rises in many countries, Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 20%40%60%80%100% Oil imports Gas Imports United States China India European Union Korea & Japan 2010 2035 20% Gas Exports the United States swims against the tide
© OECD/IEA 2012 3 0004 0005 0006 000 TWh 2 000 A power shift to emerging economies The need for electricity in emerging economies drives a 70% increase in worldwide demand, with renewables accounting for half of new global capacity Change in power generation, 2010-2035 -1 00001 000 Japan European Union India China TWh CoalGasNuclearRenewables Russia
© OECD/IEA 2012 The multiple benefits of renewables come at a cost Renewable subsidies were $88 billion in 2011; over half the subsidies required to 2035 has been committed to existing projects or is needed to meet 2020 targets Global renewable energy subsidies of $4.8 trillion, 2011-2035 Electricity $3.6 trillion Biofuels $1.2 trillion Committed to existing projects $1.0 trillion Required to meet targets 2012-2020 $1.6 trillion
© OECD/IEA 2012 Wide variations in the price of power Electricity prices are set to increase with the highest prices persisting in the European Union & Japan, well above those in China, Russia & the United States Average household electricity prices, 2035 5 10 15 20 25cents/kWh 2011 Non-OECD average 2011 OECD average 0 ChinaRussiaUnited States European Union Japan 2035
© OECD/IEA 2012 Energy efficiency: a huge opportunity going unrealised 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% IndustryTransportPower generation Buildings Unrealised energy efficiency potential Realised energy efficiency potential Two-thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiency remains untapped in the period to 2035 Energy efficiency potential used by sector in the New Policies Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2012 The Efficient World Scenario: a blueprint for an efficient world Economically viable efficiency measures can halve energy demand growth to 2035 Total primary energy demand by scenario 12 000 13 000 14 000 15 000 16 000 17 000 18 000 201020152020202520302035 Mtoe New Policies Scenario Efficient World Scenario Reduction in 2035 Coal1350Mtce Oil12.7mb/d Gas680bcm Others250Mtoe
© OECD/IEA 2012 Power generation Industry Transport Other Room to manoeuvre The Efficient World Scenario delays carbon lock-in Energy efficiency can delay lock-in of CO 2 emissions permitted under a 2 °C trajectory – which is set to happen in 2017 – until 2022, buying five extra years 5 10 15 20 25 30 201120152020202520302035 Gt 2 °C trajectory Lock-in of existing infrastructure 2017 Lock-in of infrastructure in New Policies Scenario in 2017 2022 35 Lock-in of infrastructure in Efficient World Scenario in 2022
© OECD/IEA 2012 Foundations of energy system shifting: implications for Poland With Polands robust economy & ageing energy infrastructure, government & industry face critical policy & investment choices Energy efficiency as well as nuclear, renewables & natural gas can help Poland address both energy security & climate change Unconventional natural gas resources in Poland, if cost-effective & developed in a sustainable manner, can have profound implications for the nation itself, as well as the EU as a whole Polands energy sector should foster developments of crucial new energy technologies, including CCS, & remain responsive to the ever-changing global energy landscape
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