Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Technology and policy Demand Growth GDP & pop. growth urbanisation demand mgmt. Security of Supply Environmental Impacts Supply Challenges key drivers.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Technology and policy Demand Growth GDP & pop. growth urbanisation demand mgmt. Security of Supply Environmental Impacts Supply Challenges key drivers."— Presentation transcript:

1 Technology and policy Demand Growth GDP & pop. growth urbanisation demand mgmt. Security of Supply Environmental Impacts Supply Challenges key drivers of the energy future

2 Source: UN and DOE EIA Russia data 1992-2004 only energy use grows with economic development US Australia Russia Brazil China India S. Korea Mexico Ireland Greece France UK Japan Malaysia energy demand and GDP per capita (1980-2004)

3 demographic transformations source: United Nations 6.3 billion 8.9 billion Oceania Africa N-America S-America Europe Asia Oceania Africa N-America S-America Europe Asia

4 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 Notes: 1. OECD refers to North America, W. Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia and NZ 2. Transition Economies refers to FSU and Eastern European nations 3. Developing Countries is all other nations including China, India etc. Global Energy Demand Growth by Region (1971-2030) Energy Demand (Mtoe) Global energy demand is projected to increase by just over one-half between now and 2030 – an average annual rate of 1.6%. Over 70% of this increased demand comes from developing countries

5 annual primary energy demand 1971-2003 Source IEA, 200 (Excludes biomass)

6 Source: IEA WEO 2004 Notes: 1. Power includes heat generated at power plants 2. Other sectors includes residential, agricultural and service Global Energy Demand Growth by Sector (1971-2030) Energy Demand (bnboe) growing energy demand is projected Key:- industry- transport- power- other sectors

7 Demand Growth GDP & pop. growth urbanisation demand mgmt. Security of Supply Environmental Constraints Supply Challenges significant resources non-conventionals key drivers of the energy future Technology and policy

8 US energy supply since 1850 Source: EIA

9 Oil Natural gas Coal Hydro Nuclear global primary energy sources Oil Coal Gas Hydro Nuclear

10 BAU (business as usual) projection of primary energy sources Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 (Reference Case ) 04 – 30 Annual Growth Rate (%) Total 6.5 1.3 2.0 0.7 2.0 1.3 1.8 1.6 Note: Other renewables include geothermal, solar, wind, tide and wave energy for electricity generation

11 substantial global fossil resources R/P Ratio 41 yrs. R/P Ratio 67 yrs. R/P Ratio 164 yrs. Proven Yet to Find Source: World Energy Assessment 2001, HIS, WoodMackenzie, BP Stat Review 2005, BP estimates Unconventional Reserves & Resources (bnboe)

12 Demand Growth GDP & pop. growth urbanisation demand mgmt. Security of Supply dislocation of resources import dependence Environmental Impacts Supply Challenges significant resources non-conventionals key drivers of the energy future Technology and policy

13 Source: BP Data significant hydrocarbon resource potential South America North America OilGasCoal OilGasCoal Resource Potential (bnboe) Africa OilGasCoal Resource Potential (bnboe) FSU OilGasCoal Resource Potential (bnboe) Gas Europe Resource Potential (bnboe) OilGasCoal Middle East OilGasCoal Resource Potential (bnboe) Asia Pacific OilGasCoal Resource Potential (bnboe) Key: - unconventional oil - conventional oil- gas - coal Oil, Gas and Coal Resources by Region (bnboe)

14 dislocation of fossil fuel supply & demand Source: BP Statistical Review 2006

15 Demand Growth GDP & pop. growth urbanisation demand mgmt. Security of Supply dislocation of resources import dependence Environmental Impacts local pollution climate change Supply Challenges significant resources non-conventionals key drivers of the energy future Technology and policy

16 climate change and CO 2 emissions -CO 2 concentration is rising due to fossil fuel use -The global temperature is increasing -other indicators of climate change -There is a plausible causal connection -but ~1% effect in a complex, noisy system -scientific case is complicated by natural variability, ill-understood forcings -Impacts of higher CO 2 are uncertain -~ 2X pre-industrial is a widely discussed stabilization target (550 ppm) -Reached by 2050 under BAU -Precautionary action is warranted -What could the world do? -Will we do it?

17 crucial facts about CO 2 science The earth absorbs anthropogenic CO 2 at a limited rate – Emissions would have to drop to about half of their current value by the end of this century to stabilize atmospheric concentration at 550 ppm – This in the face of a doubling of energy demand in the next 50 years (1.5% per year emissions growth) The lifetime of CO 2 in the atmosphere is ~ 1000 years – The atmosphere will accumulate emissions during the 21 st Century – Near-term emissions growth can be offset by greater long- term reductions – Modest emissions reductions only delay the growth of concentration (20% emissions reduction buys 15 years)

18 some stabilization scenarios Emissions Concentration

19 greenhouse gas emissions in 2000 by source Source: Stern Review, from data drawn from World Resources Institute Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) on-line database version 3.0

20 Concern relating to Threat of Climate Change Concern over Future Availability of Oil and Gas High Low Adv. Biofuels Carbon Free H 2 for Transport CTLGTL Heavy Oil Enhanced Recovery Ultra Deep Water Arctic Capture & Storage CNG Hybrids C&S Vehicle Efficiency (e.g. light weighting) - supply side options - demand side options Key: Dieselisation Conv. Biofuels two key energy considerations – security & climate

21 corn ethanol is sub-optimal Production does not scale to material impact – 20% of US corn production in 2006 (vs. 6% in 2000) was used to make ethanol displacing ~2.5% of petrol use – 17% of US corn production was exported in 2006 The energy and environmental benefits are limited – To make 1 MJ of corn ethanol requires 0.9 MJ of other energy (0.4 MJ coal, 0.3 MJ gas, 0.04 MJ of nuclear/hydro, 0.05 MJ crude) – Net CO 2 emission of corn ethanol ~18% less than petrol Ethanol is not an optimal fuel molecule – Energy density, water, corrosive,… There is tremendous scope to improve (energy, economics, emissions)

22 evaluating power options Concern over Future Availability of Oil and Gas High Low Hydro Nuclear Solar Wind Biomass power sector Coal Gas CCGT Geothermal Hydrogen Power Unconventional Gas - power generation options - supply option Key: Concern relating to Threat of Climate Change


Download ppt "Technology and policy Demand Growth GDP & pop. growth urbanisation demand mgmt. Security of Supply Environmental Impacts Supply Challenges key drivers."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google