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© OECD/IEA 2014 World Energy Outlook Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Brussels, 29 April 2014
© OECD/IEA 2014 The world energy scene today Some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten Countries are switching roles: importers are becoming exporters… … and exporters are among the major sources of growing demand New supply options reshape ideas about distribution of resources But long-term solutions to global challenges remain scarce Renewed focus on energy efficiency, but CO 2 emissions continue to rise Fossil-fuel subsidies increased to $544 billion in 2012 1.3 billion people still lack electricity – in Africa and South Asia Energy prices add to the pressure on policymakers Sustained period of high oil prices without parallel in market history Large, persistent regional price differences for gas & electricity
© OECD/IEA 2014 Growth in US shale gas output since 2005 is equivalent to the total production of Qatar, Kuwait, UAE and Iraq combined; while shale oil output is equal to that of Iraq Unconventional oil and gas has made a major contribution to global production 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Gas bcm 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Oil mb/d US shale gas and shale oil production increases: 2005-2014 while shale oil output is equal to that of Iraq
© OECD/IEA 2014 Who has flooded the markets? Incremental steam coal exports The US accounted for only 7% of the increase in global steam coal exports since 2007 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 20092010201120122013 Mt Indonesia United States Australia
© OECD/IEA 2014 The slowdown in Chinese demand caught the industry off-guard Coal demand in China: real demand vs historical trend China’s move away from coal will be a far greater determinant of the direction of the coal markets than the shale gas revolution in the US 3000 3200 3400 3600 3800 4000 4200 4400 2010201120122013 Mt Real consumption Historical trend Curbing in China ≈ 20 times US exports increase in 2012
© OECD/IEA 2014 A mix that is slow to change Growth in total primary energy demand Today's share of fossil fuels in the global mix, at 82%, is the same as it was 25 years ago; the strong rise of renewables only reduces this to around 75% in 2035 5001 0001 5002 0002 5003 000 Nuclear Oil Renewables Coal Gas Mtoe 1987-2011 2011-2035
© OECD/IEA 2014 US emissions on a downward trend Energy-related CO 2 emissions in the United States CO 2 emissions fell sharply since the shale gas revolution, but rebounded last year on the back of a partial gas-coal switch and increased industrial activity 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 199019952000200720122013 Gt CO 2
© OECD/IEA 2014 Non-OECD OECD Emissions off track in the run-up to the 2015 climate summit in France Cumulative energy-related CO 2 emissions Non-OECD countries account for a rising share of emissions, although 2035 per capita levels are only half of OECD 200 400 600 800Gt 1900 -1929 1930 -1959 1960 -1989 1990 -2012 2013 -2035 OECD Non-OECD Total emissions 1900-2035 51% 49%
© OECD/IEA 2014 3×3× 4×4× 5×5× 2003 Regional differences in natural gas prices narrow from today’s very high levels but remain large through to 2035; electricity price differentials also persist electricity price differentials also persist 20132035 Reduction from 2013 Who has the energy to compete? Ratio of industrial energy prices relative to the United States United States 2×2× JapanEuropean Union China ElectricityNatural gas 2003 JapanEuropean Union China
© OECD/IEA 2014 Energy-intensive industries need to count their costs Share of energy in total production costs for selected industries Energy-intensive sectors worldwide account for around one-fifth of industrial value added, one-quarter of industrial employment and 70% of industrial energy use. 10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90% Glass Pulp & paper Iron & steel Cement Aluminium Fertilisers Petrochemicals
© OECD/IEA 2014 An energy boost to the economy? Share of global export market for energy-intensive goods The US, together with key emerging economies, increases its export market share for energy-intensive goods, while the EU and Japan see a sharp decline Today 36%10%7% 3%2% European Union United States China India Middle East Japan -3% -10% +3% +2% +1% while the EU & Japan see a sharp decline
© OECD/IEA 2014 LNG from the United States can alleviate strain on the gas markets, but is no silver bullet Indicative economics of LNG export from the US Gulf Coast New LNG supplies accelerate movement towards a more interconnected global market, but high costs of transport between regions mean no single global gas price Average import price Liquefaction, shipping & regasification United States price 3 6 9 12 15 18 To Asia $/MBtu 3 6 9 12 To Europe $/MBtu but high costs of transport between regions mean no single global gas price
© OECD/IEA 2014 A Third Way for Europe: balancing competitiveness & sustainability The high cost of energy in Europe is a structural issue, not a one off Europe’s share of the global export market for energy-intensive goods is set to decline substantially by 2035, directly impacting 30 million jobs Both competitiveness & sustainability are crucial issues for Europe, but it must not be seen as an “either-or” choice improve energy efficiency negotiate more competitive terms for natural gas imports develop renewables, nuclear power & unconventional gas complete the internal energy market 2014 a key year for Europe energy policy, it will shape its long-term prosperity & could provide powerful inspiration for others to follow
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