1. Perspectives on terrorism threats against nuclear industry sector Magnus Normark InfowarCon 16 Nashville, USA

2. Increased concern in Europe Alleged Terrorist’s Strange Surveillance Video Has Authorities Thinking Nuclear Reactors Are Next Drones over nuclear facilities

3. A study of the terrorism threat…  Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM)  Quantitative and qualitative analysis methods of past events –Using GTD, NFAD and EIAD  Workshop – ”The evolution of the terrorist threat to nuclear industry in Europe” –Experts from USA, Norway, Great Britain and Sweden  Report (in swedish)

4.  Increasing terrorist attacks  Increased number of fatalities  Religiously inspired (jihadist) groups and cells  Dominating TTP – traditional and conventional The terrorist threat backdrop – 2000-2015

5. Trends of attacks against the energy sector  Increased number of attacks – Oil, gas and electricity infrastructure  Concentration to geografical areas – Iraq, Colombia, Pakistan and transit-hubs  Vast majority of attacks classified as successful – A vulnerable sector Energy Infrastructure Attack DB

6. Incidents and attacks against nuclear facilities Armed assaults Post Cold- War Thefts Security Breaches

7. The Swedish resistance movement – ”M”  “M” attempted five attacks on the Swedish nuclear industry during 1976-1978  In two of three attacks with explosives, the charge malfunctioned  After three years of inactivity the two men behind “M” gave themselves up in 1981

9. Contemporary challenges…

10. Targeted Facility Type  Nuclear Power Plant38%  Military base/facility22%  Nuclear industrial Facility16%  Weapons material production/storage13%  Nuclear research Facility 6%  Waste Storage Site 3%  Unknown 3% Y-12 US National Security Complex Oak Ridge, Tennessee

11. Type of Incident  Theft 41%  Armed assault34%  Breach16%  Sabotage 9%

12. Perpetrator Ideology/Motivation 1. Criminal (opportunistic economic drivers) 2. Unknown 3. Environmentalists 4. Anti-Nuclear 5. Ethno-nationalist 6. Jihadist/Religious Extremist 7. Personal 8. Left-wing and Right-wing Extremist

13. Terrorist threat trends  Nuclear industry has not been a target prioritized by terrorists  Increased links between Europe and Islamic State / al-Qaida affiliates  From de-centralized, low-scale to directed, networked more complex attacks  FTF returnees - more often engaged in large scale attacks  Increased challenge to identify and track individuals within networks/cells

14. Threat perspective  Increased number of plots in Europe through networked cell structure  Continued reliance on conventional weapons  Targeting can quickly change through centrally directed propaganda and rethoric  Changed target logic may become a driver to changed or new tactics and procedures  Indicators of emerging jihadist threat against the nuclear sector…!