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Vulnerability of Complex Infrastructure Systems Torbjörn Thedéen Safety Research, KTH

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HAZARDS Nature-Acts of God: Earthquakes, Extreme floods, Thunder storms... Failures of material... Human lapses Organizational errors Hackers Terrorism War

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Info Stairs Many data Classical statistical analysis Few data Logical model Reliability methods PRA Subjective Probabilities Bayesian methods Precursors, Incidents

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Research Areas Terrorist Groups Motivation Religious, political, social, economic studiesConditional Power+possibilities Conditional Vulnerability Consequences given ´attacks´: Dams, transportation, power grids...

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Vulnerability USA October 07 Vulnerability of Road Transportation Systems (Erik Jenelius KTH)

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Conditional Vulnerability Road systems modelled as a connected graph Conditioned of one link is out, the consequences are estimated: The increased total traffic time The unsatisfied demand The most ´important´ or one link at random is taken out

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Example Northern Sweden The average traffic is known The traffic for a disturbed net can be calculated

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Figur 6

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Figur 2

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Figur 5

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Vulnerability of Power Net Power Generation Power Transmission Power Distribution and Consumption

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Power Generation Dam Safety and Security Safety analysis OK, but security antagonistic threats?? Nuclear Power Plants. PRA safety OK, Defense passive?

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Power Nets - Vulnerability (Statistical Analysis of Collapses) Too few! Vulnerability analysis of empirical graph model – partly classisfied! Vulnerability analysis of idealized graph model (coupled branching processes)

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Power law of large consequences, power grid

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Power Net – Graph Model Power stations Transformers 400 kV 110 kV 220 V Consumers …………

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Power generation Consumers Branching Process

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Limiting result One link is removed at random. The proportion of unserved consumers has in the limit a distribution with a right tail of power type exponent – 1.

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Vulnerability and Terrorism

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Terrorism Motivation Terrorist groups Basis Common goal Cause fear, chaos and deaths!

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TERRORISM AND DEFENSE Enemy infrastructure Critical infrastructure ? Partly knownKnown

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Fighting Terrorism Knowledge or qualified guesses about probable terrorist groups, their goals and actions constitutes: Basis for our defence of infrastructures... Basis for our actions against terrorist groups

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Fight Between Two Networks Our critical infrastructures: power, transportation, data, finance, water... KNOWN TO THE ENEMY! Enemy infrastructure: terrorist groups ALMOST UNKNOWN TO US!

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Terrorist Network Known links and nodes Unknown links and nodes

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Sampling Procedures Random sampling of nodes/links In time or in time periods Markov sampling Markov sampling with side conditions

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Estimates – random sampling Link distribution Shortest path Sampling in many time periods – (N, p): ML estimates of p and N (Size of the terrorist population)

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