1. Teleconnections Current Weather Current Weather Finish ENSO Finish ENSO North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations Pacific Decadal Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation Warm Arctic Cold Continents Pattern Warm Arctic Cold Continents Pattern For Next Class: Read Ch. 9 (pp. 277-287) & Thompson (2000)

4. GEFS Ensemble Plumes http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini /gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini /gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini /gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini /gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html

5. ENSO Impacts in Central Andes El Niño (warm-phase ENSO) is typically associated with warm and sometimes drier conditions, leading to glacier retreat El Niño (warm-phase ENSO) is typically associated with warm and sometimes drier conditions, leading to glacier retreat low albedo bare ice is exposed to intense tropical sun at higher temperatureslow albedo bare ice is exposed to intense tropical sun at higher temperatures La Niña (cold-phase ENSO) is typically associated with cool and sometimes wetter conditions, leading to glacier advance La Niña (cold-phase ENSO) is typically associated with cool and sometimes wetter conditions, leading to glacier advance high albedo fresh snow covers most glacier surfaces, cloud cover is increased, and temperatures are lowerhigh albedo fresh snow covers most glacier surfaces, cloud cover is increased, and temperatures are lower

6. Arctic Oscillation What is the Arctic Oscillation and why is it important? What is the Arctic Oscillation and why is it important?

7. © AMS7 Arctic Oscillation Seesaw variation in air pressure between the North Pole and middle latitudes Seesaw variation in air pressure between the North Pole and middle latitudes Associated changes in the horizontal air pressure gradient alter the speed of the band of winds aloft that blows counterclockwise around the ArcticAssociated changes in the horizontal air pressure gradient alter the speed of the band of winds aloft that blows counterclockwise around the Arctic Impacts middle latitude winter weather and contributes to climate variability Impacts middle latitude winter weather and contributes to climate variability Shifts between negative and positive phasesShifts between negative and positive phases

8. Arctic Oscillation (AO) “An atmospheric circulation pattern in which the atmospheric pressure over the polar regions varies in opposition with that over middle latitudes (about 45 degrees North) on time scales ranging from weeks to decades.” (NSIDC) “An atmospheric circulation pattern in which the atmospheric pressure over the polar regions varies in opposition with that over middle latitudes (about 45 degrees North) on time scales ranging from weeks to decades.” (NSIDC) Also largely synonymous with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)Also largely synonymous with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Negative AO = colder air over mid-latitudes Negative AO = colder air over mid-latitudes Positive AO = warmer air over mid-latitudes Positive AO = warmer air over mid-latitudes

9. © AMS9 North Atlantic Oscillation NAO Index varies significantly from one year to the next and from decade to decade NAO Index varies significantly from one year to the next and from decade to decade Record of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during winter through 2007-2008

11. Arctic Oscillation (AO) NCDC 2010

12. Accuweather 2004

13. Arctic Oscillation Links http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip /CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip /CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip /CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip /CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate- weather/arctic-oscillation https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate- weather/arctic-oscillation https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate- weather/arctic-oscillation https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate- weather/arctic-oscillation

14. NOAA 2011

16. Source: Watauga County Schools

17. Monthly Snowfall and AO/ENSO Indices Arctic Oscillation Index Multivariate ENSO Index

18. NCDC 2010 Warm-Phase ENSO (El Niño) and Negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) = Moist and Cold 18 Dec 2009

20. Dec 2009 to Feb 2010 temperature ranked much below normal and precipitation above to much above normal across the southern Appalachian Mountains. 850 hPa Temperature Anomaly

21. Two highly anomalous periods from 1-13 Jan 2010 and 11-19 Feb 2010 were particularly important in producing upslope snowfall in the higher elevations and allowing existing snow cover to persist at lower elevations. 1-13 Jan 201011-19 Feb 2010

22. Numerous stations set new records for days of snow cover. Boone NC: 71 days (mean: 26 days) Mt. LeConte, TN: 115 days (mean: 64 days) 66 days!

23. Pacific Decadal Oscillation “The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability” (Univ. of Washington 2011) “The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability” (Univ. of Washington 2011) Decadal variations in Pacific SSTs and sea level pressureDecadal variations in Pacific SSTs and sea level pressure Warm PhaseCool Phase

24. © AMS24 Pacific Decadal Oscillation Variations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Index between warm phases (positive values) and cool phases (negative values), 1900-2014

25. Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Large-scale coupling between atmospheric circulation and tropical deep convection Large-scale coupling between atmospheric circulation and tropical deep convection

26. MJO Links https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo- and-why-do-we-care https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo- and-why-do-we-care https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo- and-why-do-we-care https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo- and-why-do-we-care http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ Composites/Temperature/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ Composites/Temperature/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ Composites/Temperature/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ Composites/Temperature/ http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/phasediag s.html http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/phasediag s.html http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/phasediag s.html http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/phasediag s.html

27. Warm Arctic Cold Continents Pattern NSF 2010

29. “Decadal variations in teleconnections considerably complicate the interpretation of climate change. Since the TAR, it has become clear that a small number of teleconnection patterns account for much of the seasonal to interannual variability in the extratropics” (Trenberth et al. 2007, Chapter 3 of IPCC Physical Science Basis) El Niño-Southern Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation North Atlantic Oscillation Late 1970s Climate Shift

30. Antizana Glacier 15 , Ecuador Chacaltaya Glacier, Bolivia Glacier Recession in Cord. Vilcanota, Peru Seimon et al. (2007) Francou et al. (2003) Warm-phase of ENSO (El Niño) has accelerated tropical Andean glacier retreat since the late 1970s 1997-98 Warm-phase ENSO

31. Recession of the plateau glaciers on Mt. Kilimanjaro in East Africa has been primarily a result of less precipitation and more sunshine in association with changes in atmospheric circulation. Kaser et al. (2010) http://www.mountkenyaexpeditions.com/images/mountkilimanjarofromAmboseli.jpg