1. Climate Risk Management: Science, Institutions and Society Asian Disaster Preparedness Center

2. Presentation Outline Climate and Society Interaction- current status
Climate Change- Emerging trends
Socio-Economic Systems-Emerging trends
Climate Risk Management- CCA and DRR Integration framework
Take Home Points
Exercise

3. Monsoon Aberration 2002- India
Drought 2002
Monsoon Aberration India

4. Prayers for Rain

5. Though Seasonal total is almost same ,1973 was a Drought year- India
(Semi-arid zone)
Prediction of dry and wet
spells of in the scale of
20-25 days could assist
Critical operational planning
In agriculture

6. Monsoon - Inter-seasonal Variability

7. Long-Term Decadal Climate Variability

8. Climate Effects of El Nino

9. El Niño impact on rice production, Philippines
El Nino

10. National Rice Production
El Niño impact on rice production, Indonesia
Banned using 57 pesticides
Release of HY var., increase of rice price
Withdraw subsidy for pesticide
El-Nino
Release of HY var. and extensification of planting area to plantation areas
Improve technology and extensification
Withdraw subsidy, political crisis
Crash program for irrigation, increase of rice price, upland rice
Import (Million Tonnes)
Rice Production (Million Tonnes)
National Rice Production

11. Climate and society

12. Drought Shocks and Policy Response- India
Drought Events
1877
1965
1972
1979
1987
2002
Major Policy Interventions
Famine Codes
Green
Revolution
and FCI
Scarcity
Relief
Employ
ment
Generation
Programmes
Drought
Relief
Contingency
Crop
Plan
Drought
Management
? ? ? ?
Watershed
Approach
Water
Management
Each round represent
death of one million people
Each round represent around fifty million people affected

13. Drought Impacts on Agricultural Production – India
In India, national level resilience increased, however house hold vulnerability remains

15. The long-term context for contemporary warming

16. 2003 European heat wave may have killed 20,000
Timely and accurate forecast
Poor emergency preparedness

17. Climate Change, Variability and extremes
Source: WMO

19. Number of flood events by continent and decade since 1950

20. Debate on cyclic effect or global warming ?
Change in the number and percentage of hurricanes in categories 4 and 5 for the 15-year periods 1975–1989 and 1990–2004 for the different ocean basins
Sources: P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, H.-R. Chang, (2005) Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment, Science.

22. Developing Countries are Hit the Hardest…
(Source: CRED)

23. A Growing population……
The world population reaches 6.66 billions (2008)
+80 millions /year,
(equ. to the population of an additional country the size of Germany or Vietnam)
In 2050 we will be at least 9 billions

24. Homo Sapiens: an urban species
Urban world population
Sources: UNEP/GEO 2004
Urban population (%)
Sources: UNEP/GEO 2004
NASA, DSMP
31.6% of urban population is living in slums

25. Changes in Cropping Pattern-Increasing Exposure to weather risks
Climate Forecasting Applications - Bangladesh
Changes in Cropping Pattern-Increasing Exposure to weather risks
Crop Zones
1960’s
1990’s

26. Crop intensification exposes the system to multiple hazards Eg
Crop intensification exposes the system to multiple hazards Eg. Hazard calendar for Bangladesh

27. Food demand and hunger:
The World Food Summit (WFS) estimated that approximately 840 million people in developing countries subsisted on diets that are deficient in calories
96% of these food insecure people suffer from chronic deficiencies; more than 25% of children under age 5 in developing countries are malnourished
Significant population experience temporary energy shortfalls caused by natural disasters of hydro-meteorological origin
Reducing the undernourished people to halve by the year 2015 is a challenge

28. Emerging food insecurity- Rice crisis in 2008
India withholding rice stocks
Drought reduction in wheat production in Australia Snow storm in China reduction in grain production
Vietnam withholding rice
stocks
International market price shoots up to 40%
Rice price in Thailand shoots up in response to global demand leading to prison riots and theft of rice in farms

29. Decreasing availability of freshwater for Human Use
Year
Population (millions)
Average annual renewable global water resources (km3)
Potential water availability (m3/yr)
1960
3039.7
44800
17532
1980
4454.3
10058
2000
6079.0
7370
2025
7835.9
5717
(Source: Marios, 2004)

30. Understanding Climate Variability and Change
Recent Advancement in Prediction and Monitoring Science
Generation of skill-full, reliable and location specific seasonal climate forecasts through statistical and dynamical schemes
Development of real-time monitoring systems to track the nature of causes and impacts (eg. Satellite meteorology and remote sensing techniques)
Development of climate change scenarios through Global Circulation Models (GCMs)

31. Advancement in Risk Management Technologies
New generation system analysis tools for climate risk analysis, impact assessment and tailoring alternate management/adaptation practices (eg. models for crops and eco-system dynamics)
Economic models and decision analysis tools to guide in managing risks (eg. models for resource optimization)
Development of communication and extension technologies (eg. communicating probabilistic climate information)

32. Potential & Actual Utilization of Climate Information Products
Forecast Users
Forecast Providers
Actual

33. Climate Risk Management- Challenges
Risk Communication
Dealing with uncertainties
Decision research and stakeholder involvement
Integrating climate information into decision making process
ADPC experience in risk communication will be shared

34. Experiences in generating demand driven climate information
Eg. Understanding decision options and lead time requirements of end users (Bangladesh)

35. http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/early_warning_systems 35
Early warning systems. Every year, disasters caused by weather, climate and water-related hazards impact on communities around the world, leading to loss of human life, destruction of social and economic infrastructure and degradation of already fragile ecosystems. Statistics from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) at the university of Leuven, Belgium, reveal that from , about 90% of natural disasters were meteorological or hydrological in origin; the resulting economic losses were estimated at $446bn, or about 65% of all damage caused by natural disasters. 35

36. Type of climate information Level of uncertainty
Part 2
Type of climate information
Level of uncertainty
Past climate information
Climate information monitoring (observed) +
24-48 Hours weather forecast information ++
5-7 day forecast information
+++
Climate forecast information (one month and beyond) (some forecast skill)
++++
Climate change scenario information (distant future)

37. Graduated Response to Disaster Risks
Seasonal Forecast
( 3-6 months)
Strategic
Decisions
20-21 Days Forecasts
Tactical Decision
Planning
5-7 days Forecasts
Applications

38. Climate Forecast Applications
Climate Forecast Applications Process
Project
Initiation
Utilization of Research Products
Research
Obtain climate information
Analysis of variability and predictability
Regional climate modeling
Down-scaling
Experimen-tal uptake
Capacity building for upscaling
CFA
Decision system
Reduced vulnerability to climate risks
Minimize losses
Maximize benefits of good climate
Analysis of institutional landscape, decision and policy models
Partnership development
Selection of demonstra-tion sites
Socio- economic problem formulation, impact analysis
Retrospective analysis on performance of decision system
Formulate policy changes for climate information utilization
Retrospective analysis on adoption of new policies

39. Climate Forecast Applications
The need:
Climate forecast information that:
is localized
timely
in easily understandable language
meets end user needs
The issues:
Capacity to generate the localized information
Experience in communicating probabilistic scientific information for practical use by end users

40. End-to-end climate information and application system
Early Warning Information Products
End-to-end climate information and application system
Providing climate outlook
Interpreting global climate outlook into local outlook
Translating local climate outlook into impact scenarios
Communication on farmers responses/ feedback

41. Institutional mechanism: Indonesia
Climate Forecast Applications
Institutional mechanism: Indonesia
Directorate of Plant Protection
IPB
Provision of climate outlook
BMG
Translation of climate outlook into impact outlook
Indramayu Agriculture Office
Conversion of impact outlook into crop management strategies
Dissemination of information to farmers and evaluation of farmers response

42. Climate Forecast Applications
Institutional mechanism: Philippines

43. Climate Forecast application: Institutional linkages- Bangladesh
Climate, Disasters and Society
Climate Forecast application: Institutional linkages- Bangladesh
Forecast development and Application technology CFAN/ADPC
BMD
ADPC /CEGIS
Climate forecast
IWM
FFWC/BWDB
Discharge translation
Agro met translation
DMB, DAE
CEGIS, ADPC, CARE
communication
CEGIS, ADPC, CARE
End users

44. Practical action for institutionalizing climate change adaptation
Way forward….
Practical action for institutionalizing climate change adaptation
Source: WRI, 2007

45. Adapting Climate Risk Management
Manage current climate extremes as a way forward to manage future climate change
Detect observable climate change trends
Confirm observable trends with climate change models
Downscale and provide locally usable climate information
Establish institutional partnership with climate information providers and users
Community based climate risk management programes grounded by adopting both Top Down and Bottom Up approaches.

46. Take Home Points Climate Risk is a Development issue.
Climate Change- Strong evidences and New challenges.
Climate Risk Management framework- Could be one of the practical Adaptation tools to deal with Uncertainties.
Adaptation projects and programes could be evolved and implemented by adopting Climate Risk Management frameworks. .

47. Exercise

48. What is climate risk?
Climate hazard x Vulnerability
Climate Risk =
Management

49. Climate hazard x Vulnerability Climate Risk =
What is climate risk?
Climate hazard x Vulnerability
Climate Risk =
Management

50. What is climate risk? Climate Risk = Climate hazard x Vulnerability
Management

51. What is climate risk?
Climate hazard x Vulnerability
Climate Risk =
Management

52. Climate and its impacts (Assessment framework)
Climate Extremes
Climate Variability
Climate Change

53. Country
Hazard
Vulnerability
Management
Climate risk
Australia 1 9
0.1
Thailand 2 5
0.8
Vietnam 4
Philippines 3 6
6.5
Cambodia
Bangladesh 7
7.7

54. Group Work (1.5 hours)
Form a group (UN agencies, country groups, NGOs)
Rank the level of risk in your region/country/village
Given the ranking, what kind of risk management options would you recommend? 54