2. AP7
Quantification of the impacts of future floods and low-flows on the economy in the transnational Meuse basin

3. Structure Definition of the terms in economic losses
Evaluation Questionnaires
German perspective of assessment in flood losses
Drought losses
Literature review
PAWN (NL)
EPIC Grid model (W)
MIKE Basin
Open Questions
Discussion

4. Type of damages Direct flood losses:
by inundation direct induced damages.
direct flood losses postulate direct contact with water, e.g. buildings, inventory, traffic areas and agricultural areas
direct flood losses are subdivided in immobile and mobile damages.
Indirect flood losses:
indirect damages are not generated by direct contact with water. indirect damages are caused by detraction of economic activities. e.g.
Immediate asset value losses; a short term consequence of inundation of business e.g. loss of production, disruption of economic activities
Induced asset value losses; affected companies are suppliers of not affected companies (chain reaction)
Prosperity damages, a long term consequence in a flood affected area due to lost of confidence in safety, absence of tourism, reduction of investments in the affected area.

5. Evaluation of direct flood losses
Qualitative/Quantitative?
Qualitative
Quantitativ
Qualitative assessment of flood damage by damage risk maps
A risk classification in e.g. negligible, low, medium, high vulnerability hazard
Monetary assessment by damage functions corresponding to aggregated land use categories
damage functions yield damage in proportion to water level h or partially, to the intensity of flow (e.g. velocity/ times/ depths of flow)
The proportion of the damage is multiplied by an asset value

6. Evaluation of direct flood losses
Methodology of Quantitative monetary assessment
Land use category
Inundation area; -depht
Stage damage function corresponding to land use
Relative damage
Asset value for land use category [€m-2]
Damage per land use category [€]
rel. damage [%]
Waterdepht [m]
Bachmann et. al. 2009

7. Evaluation of direct flood losses
Methodology of Qualitative assessment
=> damage risk map: Expressing the potential damage of vulnerable
elements. Based on flood hazard and vulnerability

8. Evaluation of direct flood losses
Region
Qualitative
Quantitative
Scale
Micro
(local)
Meso
(regional)
Macro
(global)
Wallonia
(ULG – GxABT) X
(ULG - HACH)
France (EPAMA)
Flanders (FHR)
Netherlands
(RWS)
Germany (IWW)

9. Evaluation of direct flood losses
Region
Damage functions / Vulnerability indicators h
vflow t
vrise
Wallonia
(GxABT) -
(HACH) X
France (EPAMA)
Flanders (FHR)
Netherlands
(Deltares)
Germany (IWW)

10. Evaluation of direct flood losses
Region
Damage functions / Vulnerability indicators
Wallonia
(ULG – GxABT)
The damage risk map (restricted access), expressing the potential damage of vulnerable elements located in areas subject to flood hazard by overflowing rivers.
The risk of damage is determined by the combination of two factors: the flood hazard and vulnerability. The risk of damage may be negligible, low, medium or high.
(ULG - HACH)
relative damage functions; loss model: FLEMO; damage ratio of the asset value; land registry income as an indicator for assessing the asset value; vulnerability based on combination of water depth, velocity, duration, water rising and social indicators recorded in the INS database
France (EPAMA)
The used damage functions yield damage in proportion to water level h or partially, to the flow velocity if v> 0.5m/s. A damage function is defined for each land use category .
Flanders (FHR)
relationship between a given water depth and the dependent damage factor for different land use category's
Netherlands
(RWS)
Stage damage functions (SDFs) are used to calculate the proportion of the maximum damage which actually occurs under given flood depths.
Germany (IWW)
Based on indirect damage functions. The used damage functions yield damage in proportion to water level h or partially, to the intensity of flow (e.g. velocity/ times/ depths of flow).

11. Land use data Region Available data Wallonia(GxABT) Wallonia (HACH)
COSW
Wallonia (HACH)
PICC Database
IGN Database
INS
Land registry database
France (EPAMA)
CORINE Land Cover
IGN maps
Non-digital Information
Flanders (FHR)
Small Scale Land Use Map Flanders
KADVEC
Industrial Zones
Top50vGIS
Multinet
Transmitting
Water Collection Plants
Water Surface
Netherlands
(RWS)
CORINE
CLUE
Landuse Scanner
Germany (IWW)
CORINE data
ATKIS data

12. Land use categories Region Category groups (CORINE) Wallonia (GxABT)
Artificial Surfaces
Agricultural Areas
Forest and semi natural areas
Wet-lands
Water bodies
others
Wallonia
(GxABT)
housing
road
rail and waterways
network X -
Communities
facilities &
public
utilities
Economic
activities
(HACH)
Flanders (FHR)
Roads and
Railways
Point elements
Residential
buildings
Urban area
Industrial
Industrial area
Infrastructure
Airport
Crop-
land
Pasture
Nature
Forests
- Recreation

13. Land use categories Category groups (CORINE) Region Netherlands (RWS)
Artificial Surfaces
Agricul-tural Areas
Forest and semi natural areas
Wet-lands
Water bodies
others
Netherlands
(RWS)
- Residential – high density
- Residential – low density
- Commercial
Port areas
Infrastructure
Construction/ mines
arable
land
pasture X -
- Recreation
France (EPAMA)
town centre's
houses out of
town
industrial or
commercial areas
transport network
- equipments
- other
Germany (IWW)
private housing/ household
contents
industry/manufacturing
sector
commerce/service sector
mixed use
state/public sector
Cars,
mobile
transport
assets
leisure

14. Evaluation of indirect losses
Region
Qualitative
Quantitative
Scale
Micro
Meso
Macro
Wallonia
(ULG - GXABT) -
(ULG - HACH)
France (EPAMA) X
Flanders (FHR)
Netherlands
(RWS)
Germany (IWW)

15. Indirect losses Region Categories / economic sectors Data basis
Wallonia (GxABT) -
Wallonia
(HACH)
France (EPAMA)
Vulnerability of:
- crisis management and emergency services
- services and activities required for recovery
- activities potentially creating more damage (SEVESO,
fuel, waste storage)
- major networks (power stations, drinking water stations)
- SIRENE
PPRi
ICPE
Flanders (FHR)
Agriculture (pastures and croplands)
Industry
Houses
Netherlands
(RWS)
Germany (IWW)
Trade, Commerce
Financial sector
Public and private service
Geomarketing
Data (infas)

16. Uncertainty Region Direct flood losses Method Indirect Flood Losses
Wallonia (GxABT) -
Wallonia (HACH) X
Flood frequency uncertainty
France (EPAMA)
Evaluated by experts
Flanders (FHR)
Netherlands
(RWS)
Inundation depth
probability of flooding
stage-damage functions
(SDFs)
maximum damage per
land use type
- land use
Germany (IWW)
Input variables

17. German perspective General Approach
Land use category
Inundation area; -depth
Stage damage function corresponding to land use
Relative damage
Asset value for land use category [€m-2]
Damage per land use category [€]
rel. damage [%]
Waterdepht [m]

18. German perspective Damage Categories
Spatial Information : ATKIS Data (Vector data 1:25.000)
Aggregation of the ATKIS object groups
to damage categories for meso-scale economic damage
potential analysis
Allocation of damage functions and asset values to corresponding
damage categories

19. German perspective Example: Damage Category Aggregation
Objektart ATKIS
Characterisation
Characterisation Land use category
Index Category (mobil)
Index Category (immobil)
5101
Stream, River, Rivulet
Not relevant in damage assessment
5102
chnnel
5112
Inland lake, artificial lake
2111
general residential building area
Private housing 1
101
2121
Mining Company
Industry and
Commerce 2
102
2122
Disposal site
2129
Waste Water Treatment Plant
2112

20. German perspective Damage functions of categories
1. Large number of damage
functions in literature
2. Representation of this variety
by stochastic interpretation
=> Probability Density Function
for each water level
=> Population Mean
=> damage function for economic
assessment
(Kutschera, 2008)

21. German perspective Damage function (industry immobile)
- including uncertainty
=> Quantile

22. German perspective
Specific Asset Values (stochastically evaluated)

23. German perspective Example Wupper (BMBF REISE)
Land use data (ATKIS-Basis-DLM):
Raster data: Resolution 25m x 25m per grid cell
=> Considered catchment area 282km2 ( Elements)

24. 0. national / partially common/ common approach
Open Questions
0. national / partially common/ common approach
Monetary-/ Qualitative Assessment
Separate consideration flood losses/drought losses
Direct flood losses mobile/immobile
Land use data
Determination of Land use categories
Flood damage functions/which hydraulic input variables (t/h/v…)
Assessment of direct/indirect losses

25. Open Questions 1. Separate consideration flood losses/drought losses
- Existing damage functions in flood damage assessment

26. Open Questions 2. Land use data? - Suggestion CORINE data Advantage
Disadvantage:
- Available Europe wide
- Free download maps/data#c5=all&c0=5&b_start=0&c11=landuse
- Aggregation of damage
categories
- Only 5 category groups
(Artificial Surfaces, Agricultural Areas, Forest and semi natural areas, wetlands, water bodies)
- Resolution (100m x 100m)
=> more inaccurate than
ATKIS Data (German
Approach)

27. CORINE categories

28. Open Questions 3. Aggregation of Land use data to Categories
=> CORINE Land use groups?
Artificial Surfaces
Agricultural Areas
Forest and semi natural areas
Wet-lands
Water bodies
others

29. Open Questions 4. Indirect flood losses? - Partially approaches exist
but not tested
- Data availability?
- Time frame / Budget?

30. low flow losses Considered disciplines in AMICE project Navigation
Agriculture
Water supply (drinking water)
Energy
Average discharge of the Meuse: Q = 230 m3/s
Decrease of discharge to Q = 130 m3/s
=> economic problems occur (Woelders, Keizer; 2007)
Decrease of discharge below Q = 1100 m3/s
(water gauge Lobhit) sluices enclosed?

31. Low flow losses X Assessment of low flow situations Region Agriculture
Public Water supply
Navigation
Energy
Wallonia
(GxABT) X
Wallonia (HACH)
France (EPAMA)
Flanders (FHR)
Netherlands
(RWS)
Germany (IWW)

32. Evaluation of low flow losses
Navigation: Information questionnaire
Region
Monetary /
Qualitative
Approach
Wallonia
(ULG-GxABT)
A decree regulates movements of boats and divers on and in the river. It includes minimum flows needed for activities.

33. Evaluation of low flow losses
Energy: Information questionnaire
Region
Monetary/
Qualitative
Approach
Netherlands
(RWS)
monetary
Cost functions using the difference between actual water temperature and optimal or maximum water temperature is used.

34. Evaluation of low flow losses
Literature research examples: Agriculture
Title/Author/
Model
Monetary /
Qualitative
Approach
Palmer Drought
Severity Index
Evaluation of the divergence of normal conditions in respect to precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture on a time scale of month.
Economic drought
Management Index
Cost – benefit ratio about reducing drought risk for different water rates
Aqua Crop
Monetary
Estimation of crop yield. Due to the respective market prices a monetary assessment is possible.
WEAP-Model
=> Important parameter to assess low flow losses in agriculture:
Available Soil moisture content

35. Evaluation of low flow losses
Palmer drought severity index (PDSI):
Widely used in the USA
PDSI is based on a supply-and-demand model of soil moisture
Algorithm based on most readily data: precipitation and temperature
- Qualitative Assessment
- Time scale Month (What do we need?)

36. Evaluation of low flow losses
Palmer drought severity index (PDSI):
Evaluation of variance to
„normal“ conditions
Time scale of months
Zi: value of the moisture anomaly
K: Weighting factor for spatial variability
D: Difference between actual precipitation and CAFEC precipitation
CAFEC (Climatically Appropriate For Existing Conditions) precipitation:
ET: Evapotranspiration
PE: Potential ET
R : Runoff
PR: Potential Runoff
L : Loss
PL. Potential Loss

37. Evaluation of low flow losses
Palmer drought severity index (PDSI):
Advantage: Easy to handle; Data availability
Disadvantage: strongly simplification, Qualitative assessment

38. Evaluation of low flow losses
Aqua Crop:
- AquaCrop is a product of FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations)
- Simulation model to determine the required amount
of water for a specific crop yield
- FAO crop requirements are calculated assuming a demand site
with simplified hydrological agro-hydrological processes such as
precipitation, evapotranspiration and crop growth
- The FAO Agriculture Approach is widely used in other
water management models e.g. WEAP (Water Evaluation
And Planning System)

39. Evaluation of low flow losses
Parameters FAO Approach
Input Parameters
Output Parameters
Area [ha]
Kc [-] Evaporation Coefficient
Effective Precipitation [mm]
Percentage of Precipitation for Evapotranspiration
Runoff from Precipitation [Million cm³]
Precipitation [mm]
Observed Precipitation [mm]
ETRef [mm]
Infiltration/Runoff flow [Million cm³]
Potential Yield [kg/ha]
ETPotential [Million cm³]
Yield Response Factor [-]
ETActual (including irrigation) [Million cm³]
Market Price [€/kg]
ETShortfall [Million cm³]
Irrigated [-]
Total Yield [kg/ha]
Irrigation Fraction [%]
Total Market Value [€]

40. Evaluation of low flow losses
FAO Approach
Advantage
Disadvantage
Available Input Parameters
from hydrologic models
No validated model existing
No Experience

41. Evaluation of low flow losses
Public Water supply: Literature Research
Titel/Author
Monetary/
Qualitative
Approach
Antonino
Canvcelliere,
Vincenzo Nicolosi,
Giuseppe Rossi
Assessment of the water supply system via the factors.
Temporal Reliability:
Volumetric reliability:
Average shortage period length:
ns: Intervals, demand is fully met
N: total number of intervals
(Ratio between the total volume released
and the total demand volume)
ns: Intervals, demand is fully met
N: total number of intervals
NP: number of sequent periods with deficits
=> Water availability – demand approach is required

42. Evaluation of low flow losses
Public Water supply: Literature Research
Titel/Author
Monetary/
Qualitative
Approach
KENJI JINNO, XU ZONGXUE, AKIRA KAWAMURA & KANAME TAJIRI
Risk Assessment of a Water Supply System during Drought
Assessment of the water supply system via the factors.
Reliability α:
Resiliency β:
Vulnerability γ:
Drought Risk Index (DRI):
NS: days of period
I state variable
VE: water deficit
VD: water demand during
deficit
DRI = 1 => high drought risk
DRI = 0 => no drought risk
- HEC-PRN
- Aquatool
- MODSIM
- STELLA
=> Water Balance Models proposed

43. Evaluation of low flow losses
Navigation: Literature Research
Titel/Author
Monetary /
Qualitative
Approach
Effects of low water
levels on the river
Rhine on the inland
waterway transport
sector
Olaf Jonkeren;
Jos van Ommeren;
Piet Rietveld;
Monetary
Relationship between price per ton and the transport capacity due to the water level

44. Evaluation of low flow losses
Energy: Literature Research
Title/Author
Monetary/
Qualitative
Approach
Jack Sieber;
David Purkey
WEAP-Model
monetary
Quantifying Hydropower generation due to produced Energy depending on hydraulic potential.
P = Q*μ*ρ*g*h
Deviation to average (year) power generation of water power plant is calculated.
Absolute monetary assessment by energy price
=> Cooling water demands

45. low flow losses Water Management Models available Region
Available data
Wallonia (GxABT)
EPICGrid model
Wallonia (HACH)
France (EPAMA)
Flanders (FHR)
MIKEBASIN
Netherlands
(RWS)
PAWN-Model
Germany (IWW)

46. Evaluation of low flow losses
Water Management Models used by AMICE partners
Region
Model
Practicability
Input data
Wallonia
(GxABT)
EPIC grid model
Applicable for the agriculture, this model can highlight inland water stress and produce raster maps (resolution 1km²)
Soil, weather,
Agricultural
practices, DTM
(readily availabl
for Wallonia from
1961 to 2005)
Flandern
(FHR)
MIKEBASiN
easy to use in itself, but when management rules are to be implemented, extra programming is needed to send the water where you want it
rainfall, evaporation, withdrawals, discharges, navigation, river/canal discharges, water levels managment rules, economic loss curves (nearly all fluxes in and out the surface water system)

47. Evaluation of low flow losses
Water Management Models used by AMICE partners
Region
Model
Practicability
Input data
Netherlands
(RWS)
PAWN-Model
PAWN toolbox is used. NHI is currently under development. Consists of a hydrological modeling toolbox and effect models. He effect models include AGRICOM for agriculture, DEMNAT for terrestrial nature, BIVAS for shipping and a cooling water model. The shipping model is a cost model that indicates additional costs when water levels go down. The number of ship movements is taken into account for. The cooling water model is used to calculate potential cooling capacity for each power plant in the Netherlands. The capacity is taken as the difference between the maximum allowed temperature and the river water temperature at the location.
Some modules can be
used separately from
The hydrological
toolbox, but do need a
detailed input.
Input:
Time series from
hydrological models
(e.g. SOBEK and
distribution model)

48. Open Questions
Approaches to assess risk due to Low Flow

49. Open Questions 1. Separate consideration flood losses/drought losses
- Available soil water content (agriculture)

50. Suggestion: Task group (LOW FLOW)
1. Navigation
- Rijkswaterstaat (Netherlands)
- De Scheepvart (Belgium)
- IWW (Germany)
2. Agriculture
- FUSAGx (Wallonia)
- FHR
3. Public Water Supply
- IWW
- AWW
4. Energy
- EPAMA (French)
- Wallonia Region

51. Data Collection? (Example)
1. Navigation
- Quantity of ships navigating the Meuse in a defined time scale
- Price per tons
2. Agriculture
- Agriculture areas in the Meuse basin
- Market prices of specific crops
3. Public Water Supply
- Wherefrom is drinking water taken?
4. Energy
- Temperature threshold values for cooling circuits
- Water demand of power plant (e.g. l/kwh)