1. Population Ecology Part II HUMAN POPULATION DYNAMICS

2. Thomas Malthus “diminishing returns”
He argues that rising wages and improved well-being would lead to excess reproduction among the working class.
A labor surplus would then cause wages to fall below subsistence levels, resulting in starvation, disease and crime.
In his view, land for food production was the limiting factor in both population growth and economic development.

3. Was Malthus Right?

5. The Black Plague Also called the “black death” or Bubonic plague
Deadliest pandemic in human history
1340’s and 1350’s
Thought to have been a bacterial infection carried by fleas
Density dependent

6. Bubonic Plague 30%-75% mortality rate Bulbous swelling in lymph nodes
Turned black

7. Pneumatic Plague Caused a form of pneumonia Same bacterium
90%-95% mortality
Victims died before reaching other places

8. Septicemic Plague
100% mortality
High fever
Skin turned purple

9. The Catholic Church Lost prestige and spiritual authority
Promised cures and treatments
Said it was God’s will
Could not explain so many deaths
People abandoned the church

10. Effect on Europe

11. Why has the human population been able to continue exponential growth when other populations would have leveled off by now?

12. Humans Have Been Able To Overcome Environmental Resistance (Limiting Factors) to Sustain Growth

13. Arable Land Land that can be used for growing crops
21% of earth’s surface is arable

15. Reasons for World Hunger Issues
Unequal distribution of available food
Loss of arable land
Increasing population growth rate
Increasing poverty in developing countries

16. Arable Land Assume no arable land is being lost for the next 33 years.
2006, there was 1.15 acres of arable land per person, world-wide
(i.e billion acres / 6.68 billion people).

17. Arable Land
2039, there may be only 0.59 acres of arable land per person, world-wide
i.e billion acres / 13 billion people
arable land is being lost at the alarming rate of over24.7 million acres per year.
  2039, there may be only 0.53 acres of arable land per person, world-wide

19. Reasons for Loss of Arable Land
Deforestation
Over exploitation for fuel wood
Overgrazing
Over farming (deplete nutrients)
Industrialization
No rich sediment replacement due to flooding – controlled by dams

20. How have we still managed to grow enough food to feed the world
How have we still managed to grow enough food to feed the world? Who grows most of the food? What affect could global warming have on this scenario?

24. Ways to Increase Crop Production
Modern farm equipment
Return nutrients to soil (fertilizers)
Irrigation
New genetically modified crops
Hydroponics

25. Strategies for ensuring adequate nutrition for a growing population:
Increase the number of new food crops from a diversity of plant species
Distribute food more equitably
Increase land are that is dedicated to grain production rather than meat production
Assist developing countries in efficient crop irrigation systems.

26. How many people can the earth feed on our arable land
How many people can the earth feed on our arable land? What about over-fishing our oceans? What is the earth’s carrying capacity?

27. Factors Affecting Human Population Size

28. #1 – Birth vs. Death Rates Birth rate - # live births per 1,000 people
Death rate - # of deaths per 1,000 people
Top 5 most populated countries: China, India, U.S., Indonesia, Brazil

29. Annual Rate of Natural Population Change (%)=
Birth rate – Death rate
1,000 people x 100

30. #2 - Fertility Rate # children born to a woman in her lifetime
Replacement-level fertility rate = # children a couple must have to replace themselves (2.1 to 2.5)
Total fertility rate = average # children a woman has during reproductive years (global average is 2.7, developed countries 1.6)

31. #3 – Factors Related to Children
Importance of children to labor force
Cost of raising and educating a child ($250,000 in U.S. to age 18 vs. minimal in developing countries)

32. #4 – Religion and Culture
View of the family
Rights of women
Beliefs concerning birth control
Age at marriage
Sex preference for children

33. #5 - Pension System
If retirement plans are available and adequate – less children
No retirement – more children, particularly males to support them in old age

34. #6 - Urbanization Better access to family planning services
More job opportunities
Higher standard of living
All generally promote smaller families

35. #7 – Opportunities for Women
Education
Family Planning options
Job opportunities
Best way to reduce fertility rates

36. #8 – Infant Mortality Rate
Better medicine and health care = lower infant mortality
The more likely infants are to survive, the more fertility rates drop

37. #9 – Average Age at Marriage
Developing countries = 14 or 15
Developed countries = 25

38. #10 – Life Expectancy
Rapid rise in world population in last 100 years is due to increased life expectancy
Modern medicine means infants do not die and people live to much older ages
67 years globally, 78 years in U.S.
Poorest countries with HIV = 49 years

39. What factors affect death rates?
Increased food supplies and distribution
Better nutrition
Improvements in medical & public health technology (ex. immunizations and antibiotics)
Improvements in sanitation & personal hygiene
Safer water supplies to stop spread of infectious disease

40. #11– Net Migration Immigration vs. Emigration
Countries like the U.S. continue to grow due to Immigration
Countries like Russia are decreasing due to emigration

41. #12 – Age Structure

42. Growth Rate- includes birth rate, death rate, immigration and emigration Gross National Product- The most commonly used measure of the economic growth of a country.

43. Population Change Growth Rate
Population change = (Crude birth rate + Immigration) – (Crude death rate + Emigration)
If a population of 10,000 experiences 100 births, 40 deaths, 10 immigrants and 30 emigrants in a year, what is the net annual percentage growth rate?

44. Answer
( ) – ( ) = 40
40/10,000 X 100 = 0.4%

46. Zero Population Growth- When the number of births, equals the number of deaths. No growth in the population. .

47. Rule of 70’s – Doubling Time
Doubling time - # years it takes a population to double
70/ growth rate = doubling time (daily)
72/ growth rate = doubling time (years)
If a population of a country grows at a rate of 5% a year, the number of years required for the pop to double is what?

48. Demographics of Countries

49. Developing Countries-
China is the largest but has taken drastic population control methods.
By 2050, India is predicted to pass it. Pakistan is projected to become 3rd with Iran and Ethiopia following.
However, Russia is losing 600,000 people a year, after being the 4th largest country in This is because of environmental pollution, hyperinflation, crime, corruption, disease and despair.

50. Developed countries
Usually don’t have such population problems. It can be linked to poverty level even in developed countries.

51. Demographic Transition As countries becomes industrialized their birth rates decline.

52. Pre-industrial
Harsh living conditions lead to a high birth rate and high death rate. Thus, there is little population growth.

53. Transitional
As industrialization begins, food production rises and health care improves.
Death rates drop and birth rates remain high
The population grows rapidly

54. Industrial Industrialization is wide spread
Birth rate drops and eventually approaches the death rate.
This is because of:
better access to birth control
decline in the infant mortality rate
increased job opportunities for women
the high cost of raising children who don’t enter the work force until after high school or college.

55. The Industrial Revolution Modern Medicine
Reasons human population growth has been so dramatic in the last century
The Industrial Revolution
Modern Medicine

56. Postindustrial
The birth rate declines even further, equaling the death rate and thus reaching zero population growth.
Then, the birth rate falls below the death rate and the total population size slowly decreases.
(Cont….)

57. 37 countries have reached this stage. (mainly in W. Europe)
To most population experts, the challenge is to help the remaining 88% of the world to get to this stage.

58. Demographic Transition

59. Demographic Transition in Japan

60. U.S. Statistics
Because of the ‘Baby Boom’ the US has a bulge in the pyramid with people in their 50’s-60’s.
There are also more women than men in the older age group because of differences in longevity between the sexes.
(Cont…)

61. The US has a high % of retired people because of long life expectancy
The US has a high % of retired people because of long life expectancy. This makes us realize the importance of social security, etc.
The US is considered a slow growth population.

62. Some countries, including China, penalize couples who have more than one or two children by:
Raising their taxes
Charging other fees
Eliminating income tax deductions for a couple’s third child
Loss of health-care benefits, food allotments and job options

63. In China couples who pledge to have no more than one child receive
Extra food
Larger pensions
Better housing
Free medical care
Salary bonuses
Free school tuition for their one child
Preferential treatment in employment when their child enters the job market.

64. However, according to some studies, there is a strong preference for male children.
Girls are aborted at a higher rate than boys
Some infant girls are killed
Male children sometimes are fed better than female children.

65. Environmental Impact Equation (Paul Ehrlich Formula)
Population X affluence X technology = Environmental impact

66. Developed Countries High rates of resource use
Result in high levels of pollution and environmental degradation per person
These are believed to be the key factors determining overall environmental impact.
(Cont….)

67. It is estimated that a US citizen consumes 35 X’s as much as the average citizen of India and 100 X’s as much as the average person in the world’s poorest countries.
(Cont…)

68. Thus, poor parents in a developing country would need kids to have the same lifetime environmental impact as 2 typical US kids.

69. Urbanization
Urban areas must import food, water, energy, minerals, & other resources.
They produce enormous quantities of wastes that can pollute the air, water & land.
44% of the world’s people live in urban areas that occupy only 5% of the world’s land & they consume 75% of the world’s resources.

70. 1994 Global Summit on Population & Development
Cairo, Egypt
Encouraged action to stabilized the world’s population at 7.8 billion by 2050, instead of the projected billion.

71. The major goals are to:
Provide universal access to family-planning services.
Improve the health care of infants, children & pregnant women
Encourage development of national population policies
Improving the status of women by expanding education & job opportunities

72. Major goals continued:
Increase access to education for girls
Increase men’s involvement in child-rearing responsibility & family planning
Take steps to eradicate poverty
Reduce & eliminate unsustainable patterns of production & consumption.