1. Climate Change and Biodiversity Robert T
Climate Change and Biodiversity Robert T. Watson MA Board Co-chair Informal Joint Meeting of the CBD SBSTTA and UNFCCC SBSTA, Montreal November 30, 2005
This set of slides was prepared by Walt Reid (borrowing several slides prepared by others involved in the MA). The slides focus on the findings of the MA synthesis report (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (W. Reid, H. Mooney, A. Cropper et. al.), 2005: Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis. Island Press, Washington D.C.
The slides were prepared with MS PowerPoint 2003 (SP2). Some of the animation may not run on earlier versions of Powerpoint.
The slides include references in the ‘notes’ section to the relevant figures in that report or in other MA reports and text from the MA synthesis report relevant to the issues illustrated in the figures. Several figures in this slide set do not appear in the MA but are included to illustrate points commonly made in presenting the MA findings. The source of those non-MA figures is noted.

2. Key design features of the MA
Political legitimacy
Authorized by four conventions and UN
Scientific credibility 
Follows IPCC procedures
Utility 
Focus strongly shaped by audience
Strong sub-global features
FCCC
Ramsar
CCD
CBD
CMS
SBSTA
STRP
CST
SBSTTA SC
IPCC MA
Research, UN Data, National and International Assessments

3. MA Facts
Number of Working Groups (Condition, Scenarios, Responses, Sub-global): 4
Number of chapters: 81
Number of pages (all publications): ~3,000
Number of experts preparing the assessment: 1,360 (including 50 young fellows)
Number of countries with experts involved: 95
Number of Review Editors: 80
Reviews solicited from: 185 countries through 600 national focal points
Reviews solicited from: 2,516 experts
Number of individual review comments received (and responded to): 20,745
Most individual comments on one chapter: 850 comments (66 pages) on Biodiversity responses chapter.
Amount raised: $17 million
Annual cost as percent of US Global Climate Change Research Budget: 0.2%
Estimated total cost (including in-kind contributions of experts): $25 million
US Global Climate Research Program Budget: $1.7 billion U.S. Global Climate Research Program (USGCRP). Average annual budget for MA: $4.25 million per year.

4. MA Conceptual Framework
Human Well-being and
Poverty Reduction
Basic material for a good life
Health
Good Social Relations
Security
Freedom of choice and action
Indirect Drivers of Change
Demographic
Economic (globalization, trade, market and policy framework)
Sociopolitical (governance and institutional framework)
Science and Technology
Cultural and Religious
Direct
Drivers
Indirect
Ecosystem
Services
Human
Well-being
Life on Earth:
Biodiversity
Direct Drivers of Change
Changes in land use
Species introduction or removal
Technology adaptation and use
External inputs (e.g., irrigation)
Resource consumption
Climate change
Natural physical and biological drivers (e.g., volcanoes)
The conceptual framework for the MA posits that people are integral parts of ecosystems and that a dynamic interaction
exists between them and other parts of ecosystems, with the changing human condition driving, both directly
and indirectly, changes in ecosystems and thereby causing changes in human well-being. (See Figure B.) At the same
time, social, economic, and cultural factors unrelated to ecosystems alter the human condition, and many natural
forces influence ecosystems. Although the MA emphasizes the linkages between ecosystems and human well-being, it
recognizes that the actions people take that influence ecosystems result not just from concern about human well-being
but also from considerations of the intrinsic value of species and ecosystems. Intrinsic value is the value of something
in and for itself, irrespective of its utility for someone else.
Changes in drivers that indirectly affect biodiversity, such as population, technology, and lifestyle (upper right corner of Figure), can lead to changes
in drivers directly affecting biodiversity, such as the catch of fish or the application of fertilizers (lower right corner). These result in changes to
ecosystems and the services they provide (lower left corner), thereby affecting human well-being. These interactions can take place at more than
one scale and can cross scales. For example, an international demand for timber may lead to a regional loss of forest cover, which increases
flood magnitude along a local stretch of a river. Similarly, the interactions can take place across different time scales. Different strategies and
interventions can be applied at many points in this framework to enhance human well-being and conserve ecosystems.

5. What was unique? Ecosystem services
Provisioning
Goods produced or provided by ecosystems
Regulating
Benefits obtained from regulation of ecosystem processes
Cultural
Non-material benefits from ecosystems
The assessment focuses on the linkages between ecosystems and human well-being and, in particular, on “ecosystem
services.” An ecosystem is a dynamic complex of plant, animal, and microorganism communities and the nonliving
environment interacting as a functional unit. The MA deals with the full range of ecosystems—from those relatively
undisturbed, such as natural forests, to landscapes with mixed patterns of human use, to ecosystems intensively managed
and modified by humans, such as agricultural land and urban areas. Ecosystem services are the benefits people
obtain from ecosystems. These include provisioning services such as food, water, timber, and fiber; regulating services that
affect climate, floods, disease, wastes, and water quality; cultural services that provide recreational, aesthetic, and spiritual
benefits; and supporting services such as soil formation, photosynthesis, and nutrient cycling. The
human species, while buffered against environmental changes by culture and technology, is fundamentally dependent
on the flow of ecosystem services.
Original version of this slide was prepared by Karen Bennett, WRI.
Photo credits (left to right, top to bottom): Purdue University, WomenAid.org, LSUP, NASA, unknown, CEH Wallingford, unknown, W. Reid, Staffan Widstrand

6. Converting an ecosystem means losing some services and gaining others – e.g., A mangrove ecosystem:
housing
shrimp
A forest into agricultural lands; a wetland into a shopping mall or airport;
Provides nursery and adult habitat ,
Seafood, fuelwood, & timber; traps sediment; detoxifies pollutants;
protects coastline from erosion & disaster
crops

7. Valuation of Ecosystem Services
The total economic value associated with managing ecosystems more sustainably is often higher than the value associated with conversion
Conversion may still occur because private economic benefits are often greater for the converted system

8. Core Questions What is the rate and scale of ecosystem change?
What are the consequences of ecosystem change for the services provided by ecosystems and for human-well being?
How might ecosystems and their services change over the next 50 years?
What options exist to conserve ecosystems and enhance their contributions to human well-being?
Five overarching questions, along with more detailed lists of user needs developed through discussions with stakeholders
or provided by governments through international conventions, guided the issues that were assessed:

9. Environmental Management
MA Scenarios
World Development
Globalization Regionalization
Global Orchestration
Order from Strength
Proactive Reactive
Environmental Management
TechnoGarden
Adapting Mosaic

10. Main Findings
Humans have radically altered ecosystems in last 50 years
2. Changes have brought gains but at growing costs that threaten achievement of development goals
3. Degradation of ecosystems could grow worse but can be reversed.

11. The Balance Sheet – to date
Enhanced
Degraded
Mixed
Crops
Livestock
Aquaculture
Carbon sequestration
Capture fisheries
Wild foods
Wood fuel
Genetic resources
Biochemicals
Fresh Water
Air quality regulation
Regional & local climate regulation
Erosion regulation
Water purification
Pest regulation
Pollination
Natural Hazard regulation
Spiritual & religious
Aesthetic values
Timber
Fiber
Water regulation
Disease regulation
Recreation & ecotourism
MA Synthesis SDM (p. 6): “Approximately 60% (15 out of 24) of the ecosystem services evaluated in this assessment (including 70% of regulating and cultural services) are being degraded or used unsustainably. Ecosystem services that have been degraded over the past 50 years include capture fisheries, water supply, waste treatment and detoxification, water purification, natural hazard protection, regulation of air quality, regulation of regional and local climate, regulation of erosion, spiritual fulfillment, and aesthetic enjoyment. The use of two ecosystem services—capture
fisheries and fresh water—is now well beyond levels that can be sustained even at current demands, much less future ones. At least one quarter of important commercial fish stocks are overharvested (high certainty). (See Figures 5, 6, and 7.) From 5% to possibly 25% of global freshwater use exceeds long-term accessible supplies and is now met either through engineered water transfers or overdraft of groundwater supplies (low to medium certainty). Some 15–35% of irrigation withdrawals exceed supply rates and are therefore unsustainable (low to medium certainty). While 15
services have been degraded, only 4 have been enhanced in the past 50 years, three of which involve food production: crops, livestock, and aquaculture. Terrestrial ecosystems were on average a net source of CO2 emissions during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, but became a net sink around the middle of the last century, and thus in the last 50 years the role of ecosystems in regulating global climate through carbon
sequestration has also been enhanced.”
Bottom Line: 60% of Ecosystem Services are Degraded
Provisioning services are being enhanced at the cost of regulating & cultural services

12. Climate and Biodiversity
Key conclusions regarding the interactions between climate and biodiversity
MA Synthesis SDM p. 18: The scale of interventions that result in these positive outcomes are substantial and include significant investments in environmentally sound technology, active adaptive management, proactive action to address environmental problems before their full consequences are experienced, major investments in public goods (such as education and health), strong action to reduce socioeconomic disparities and eliminate poverty, and expanded capacity of people to manage ecosystems adaptively. However, even in scenarios where one or more categories of ecosystem services improve, biodiversity continues to be lost and thus the long-term sustainability of actions to mitigate degradation of ecosystem services is uncertain.

13. Key Conclusions
There is wide recognition that human-induced climate change is a serious environmental and development issue and in conjunction with other stresses threatens ecological systems and their biodiversity
The Earth is warming, with most of the warming of the last 50 years attributable to human activities; precipitation patterns are changing, and sea level is rising. The global mean surface temperature has increased by about 0.6 degrees Celsius over the last 100 years, and is projected to increase by a further 1.4–5.8 degrees Celsius by The spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation have already changed and are projected to change even more in the future, with an increasing incidence of floods and droughts. Sea levels have already risen 10–25 cm during the last 100 years and are projected to rise an additional 8–88 cm by 2100
Observed changes in climate have already affected ecological, social, and economic systems, and the achievement of sustainable development is threatened by projected changes in climate.
MA Synthesis SDM p. 18: The scale of interventions that result in these positive outcomes are substantial and include significant investments in environmentally sound technology, active adaptive management, proactive action to address environmental problems before their full consequences are experienced, major investments in public goods (such as education and health), strong action to reduce socioeconomic disparities and eliminate poverty, and expanded capacity of people to manage ecosystems adaptively. However, even in scenarios where one or more categories of ecosystem services improve, biodiversity continues to be lost and thus the long-term sustainability of actions to mitigate degradation of ecosystem services is uncertain.

14. Trends in Drivers of Ecosystem Change
Almost all of the key direct drivers of change in biodiversity and ecosystem services are either remaining constant in their impact or growing in impact in all of the MA Systems.
MA Synthesis Figure 4.3. Main Direct Drivers of Change in Biodiversity and Ecosystems (CWG)
The cell color indicates impact of each driver on biodiversity in each type of ecosystem over the past 50–100 years. High impact means that over the
last century the particular driver has significantly altered biodiversity in that biome; low impact indicates that it has had little influence on biodiversity in the biome. The arrows indicate the trend in the driver. Horizontal arrows indicate a continuation of the current level of impact; diagonal and vertical arrows indicate progressively increasing trends in impact. Thus for example, if an ecosystem had experienced a very high impact of a particular driver in the past century (such as the impact of invasive species on islands), a horizontal arrow indicates that this very high impact is likely to continue. This Figure is based on expert opinion consistent with and based on the analysis of drivers of change in the various chapters of the assessment report of the MA Condition and Trends Working Group. The Figure presents global impacts and trends that may be different from those in specific regions.
Trends in Drivers
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

15. Percent of habitat (biome) remaining
Habitat Loss to 2050
under MA Scenarios
Habitat Loss to 1990
Mediterranean Forests
Temperate Grasslands & Woodlands
Temperate Broadleaf Forest
Tropical Dry Forest
Tropical Grasslands
Tropical Coniferous Forest
Adapted from MA Synthesis Figure 3. Conversion of Terrestrial Biomes (Adapted from C4, S10)
It is not possible to estimate accurately the extent of different biomes prior to significant human impact, but it is possible to determine the “potential” area of biomes based on soil and climatic conditions. This Figure shows how much of that potential area is estimated to have been converted by 1950 (medium certainty), how much was converted between 1950 and 1990 (medium certainty), and how much would be converted under the four MA scenarios (low certainty) between 1990 and 2050.
For the scenarios, the midpoint of the scenario values is plotted here
Tropical Moist Forest
Percent of habitat (biome) remaining
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

16. Temperature Change (oC) from 1990
Figure 3.20 in MA Biodiversity Synthesis report
Source: IPCC 2001

17. Hot Spots of Biodiversity
Climate change challenges the concept of small isolated protected areas

18. Change in Species Diversity
Number per Thousand Species
100 to 1000-fold increase
MA Synthesis Figure SDM 4 (Extinctions) and Figure 1.7 Homogenization
Figure 4. Species Extinction Rates (Adapted from C4 Fig 4.22) “Distant past” refers to average extinction rates as estimated from the fossil record. “Recent past” refers to extinction rates calculated from known extinctions of species (lower estimate) or known extinctions plus “possibly extinct” species (upper bound). A species is considered to be “possibly extinct” if it is believed by experts to be extinct but extensive surveys have not yet been undertaken to confirm its disappearance. “Future” extinctions are model derived estimates using a variety of techniques, including species-area models, rates at which species are shifting to increasingly more threatened categories, extinction probabilities associated with the IUCN categories of threat, impacts of projected habitat loss on species currently threatened with habitat loss, and correlation of species loss with energy consumption. The time frame and species groups involved differ among the “future” estimates, but in general refer to either future loss of species based on the level of threat that exists today or current and future loss of species as a result of habitat changes taking place over the period of roughly 1970 to Estimates based on the fossil record are low certainty; lower-bound estimates for known extinctions are high certainty and upper-bound estimates are medium certainty; lower-bound estimates for modeled extinctions are low certainty and upper-bound estimates are speculative. The rate of known extinctions of species in the past century is roughly 50–500 times greater than the extinction rate calculated from the fossil record of 0.1–1 extinctions per 1,000 species per 1,000 years. The rate is up to 1,000 times higher than the background extinction rates if possibly extinct species are included.
Figure 1.7. Growth in Number of Marine Species Introductions (C11). Number of new records of established non-native invertebrate and algae species reported in marine waters of North America, shown by date of first record, and number of new records of non-native marine plant species reported on the European coast, by date of first record.
From text on MA Synthesis SDM p. 4: “Humans are fundamentally, and to a significant extent irreversibly, changing the diversity
of life on Earth, and most of these changes represent a loss of biodiversity.
■ Across a range of taxonomic groups, either the population size or range or both of the majority of species is currently declining.
■ The distribution of species on Earth is becoming more homogenous; in other words, the set of species in any one region of the world
is becoming more similar to the set in other regions primarily as a result of introductions of species, both intentionally and inadvertently in
association with increased travel and shipping.
■ The number of species on the planet is declining. Over the past few hundred years, humans have increased the species extinction
rate by as much as 1,000 times over background rates typical over the planet’s history (medium certainty). (See Figure 4.) Some 10–30% of
mammal, bird, and amphibian species are currently threatened with extinction (medium to high certainty). Freshwater ecosystems tend to
have the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction.
Plotting note for PowerPoint slide: To plot correctly, upper bound of fossil changed from 1 to .9 and upper bound of Future changed from to 9000
Extinctions
(per thousand years)
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

19. Climate impacts on cereal production capacity,
ECHAM4 2080s, Rain-fed multiple cropping
BRAZIL
INDIA
RUSSIA
CHINA

20. Recent Findings (post MA)
Compared to the IPCC TAR, there is greater clarity and reduced uncertainty about the impacts of climate change
A number of increased concerns have arisen:
Increased oceanic acidity likely to reduce the oceans capacity to absorb carbon dioxide and effect the entire marine food chain
An increase in ocean surface temperature of 1oC is likely to lead to extensive coral bleaching
Reversal of the land carbon sink – possible by the end of the Century
A regional increase of 2.7oC above present (associated with a temperature rise of about 1.5oC above today or 2oC above pre-industrial level) could trigger a melting of the Greenland ice-cap – impacting all coastal ecosystems and human settlements
Possible destabilization of the Antarctic ice sheets becomes more likely above 3oC – the Larson B ice shelve is showing signs of instability
The North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation may slow down or even shut down: one study suggested that there is a 2 in 3 chance of a collapse within 200 years, while another study suggested a 30% chance of a shut down within 100 years

21. The Risks of Climate Change Damages Increase with the Magnitude of Climate Change

22. Key Conclusions
Based on the current understanding of the climate system, and the response of different ecological and socioeconomic systems, if significant global adverse changes to ecosystems are to be avoided, the best guidance that can currently be given suggests that efforts be made to limit the increase in global mean surface temperature to less than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to limit the rate of change to less than 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade.
This will require that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide be limited to about 450 parts per million and the emissions of other greenhouse gases stabilized or reduced
This optimistically assumes that the climate sensitivity factor is in the middle or lower end of the range ( degrees C)
MA Synthesis SDM p. 18: The scale of interventions that result in these positive outcomes are substantial and include significant investments in environmentally sound technology, active adaptive management, proactive action to address environmental problems before their full consequences are experienced, major investments in public goods (such as education and health), strong action to reduce socioeconomic disparities and eliminate poverty, and expanded capacity of people to manage ecosystems adaptively. However, even in scenarios where one or more categories of ecosystem services improve, biodiversity continues to be lost and thus the long-term sustainability of actions to mitigate degradation of ecosystem services is uncertain.

23. Recent Findings (post MA)
Probability analysis suggests that to limit warming to 2oC above pre-industrial levels with a relatively high certainty requires the equivalent concentration of carbon dioxide to stay below 400ppm
Stabilization of the equivalent concentration of carbon dioxide at 450ppm would imply a medium likelihood of staying below 2oC above pre-industrial levels
If the equivalent concentration of carbon dioxide were to rise to 550ppm it is unlikely that warming would stay below 2oC above pre-industrial levels
The World Energy Outlook (2004) predicts that carbon dioxide emissions will increase by 63% over 2002 levels by This means that in the absence of urgent and strenuous actions to reduce GHG emissions in the next 20 years, the world will almost certainly be committed to a warming of between 0.5oC and 2oC relative to today by 2050, i.e., about 1.1oC and 2.6oC above pre-industrial

24. Key Conclusions
If a long-term target were to be established, intermediate targets and an equitable allocation of emissions would be needed
The technologies of today (energy production and use, carbon capture and storage, and biological sequestration) can put us on the right track until about 2050, but significant improvements will be needed after this time, hence the need for an aggressive energy R&D program
Realizing the technical potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will involve the development and implementation of supporting institutions and policies to overcome barriers to the diffusion of these technologies into the marketplace, increased public and private sector funding for research and development, and effective technology transfer
Such a target will send a strong signal to the private sector, governments and the research community that there will be a market for climate-friendly technologies
MA Synthesis SDM p. 18: The scale of interventions that result in these positive outcomes are substantial and include significant investments in environmentally sound technology, active adaptive management, proactive action to address environmental problems before their full consequences are experienced, major investments in public goods (such as education and health), strong action to reduce socioeconomic disparities and eliminate poverty, and expanded capacity of people to manage ecosystems adaptively. However, even in scenarios where one or more categories of ecosystem services improve, biodiversity continues to be lost and thus the long-term sustainability of actions to mitigate degradation of ecosystem services is uncertain.

25. Temperature change relative to 1990 (C)
Warming resulting from different stabilised concentrations of greenhouse gases: pre-industrialized level ppm, current level ppm
Temperature change relative to 1990 (C)
Temperature change relative to 1990 (C ) 9 9 8 8
Temperature change at equilibrium
Temperature change in the year 2100 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1
450
550
650
750
850
950
1000
450
550
650
750
850
950
1000
Eventual CO2 stabilisation level (ppm)
Eventual CO2 stabilisation level (ppm)

26. Key Conclusions: Adaptation
Adverse consequences of climate change can be reduced by adaptation measures, but cannot be completely eliminated
Even with best-practice management it is inevitable that some species will be lost, some ecosystems irreversibly modified, and some environmental goods and services adversely affected
Assess and act upon threats and opportunities that result from both existing and future climate variability, including those deriving from climate change
Adaptation to climate change must be part of the development process and not separated from it – must be integrated into national economic planning
Existing capacities, (national governments to local communities) which are often weak, form the starting point for anticipatory adaptation actions
The capacity to adapt is closely related to how society develops with respect to technological capability, level of income and type of governance

27. Findings and data: MAweb.org & Island Press
Publications
Synthesis Reports
Synthesis
Board Statement
Biodiversity Synthesis
Wetlands Synthesis
Health Synthesis
Desertification Synthesis
Business Synthesis
Technical Volumes and MA Conceptual Framework (Island Press)
Ecosystems and Human Well-being: A Framework for Assessment
State and Trends
Scenarios
Multi-Scale Assessments
Responses

28. MA Conceptual Framework Technical Assessment Volumes
Synthesis Reports
Board Statement
MA Conceptual Framework
Technical Assessment Volumes