Presentation on theme: "European Environment Agency Resilience, Reduction and Responsiveness Some lessons from Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Jacqueline McGlade European Environment."— Presentation transcript:
European Environment Agency Resilience, Reduction and Responsiveness Some lessons from Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Jacqueline McGlade European Environment Agency
Unsustainable consumption & production patterns Globally, environmental pressures are growing in terms of GHG emissions, water and air pollution, land use, resource use and waste In Europe these impacts are still growing across all stages of the production – consumption chain. Without environmental legislation it would have been far worse Social and ecological resilience are now at risk
European Environment Agency EU-25 use of world biocapacity compared to population share Source: EEA/GFN, 2005: Global ecological overshoot
European Environment Agency Natural margins
European Environment Agency Natural assets fodder productiontourist attraction pollination carbon sequestration flood protection water purification slope stability biodiversity recreation beauty fibre production food production stabilising micro-climate recreation shelter for life stockgame reserve
European Environment Agency Capital assets
European Environment Agency World trade is a driving force Source: WTO, 2003: index = value deflated by unit value.
European Environment Agency Unsustoppable
European Environment Agency Unstable
European Environment Agency World economic growth 1990–2001 and links to the use of environmental services (EEA) From empty to full world
European Environment Agency Enlightenment
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Largest assessment ever undertaken of the health of ecosystems ·Prepared by 1360 experts from 95 countries; extensive peer review ·Consensus of the worlds scientists Designed to meet needs of decision- makers among government, business, civil society ·Information requested through 4 international conventions
Secret of successful assessments Political Legitimacy Scientific Credibility Saliency – Focus on User Needs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Direct Drivers Indirect Drivers Ecosystem Services Human Well-being Direct Drivers of Change Changes in land use Species introduction or removal Technology adaptation and use External inputs (e.g., irrigation) Resource consumption Climate change Natural physical and biological drivers (e.g., volcanoes) Indirect Drivers of Change Demographic Economic (globalization, trade, market and policy framework) Sociopolitical (governance and institutional framework) Science and Technology Cultural and Religious Human Well-being and Poverty Reduction Basic material for a good life Health Good Social Relations Security Freedom of choice and action Life on Earth: Biodiversity MA Conceptual Framework
Regulating Benefits obtained from regulation of ecosystem processes Cultural Non-material benefits from ecosystems Provisioning Goods produced or provided by ecosystems Ecosystem services Photo credits (left to right, top to bottom): Purdue University, WomenAid.org, LSUP, NASA, unknown, CEH Wallingford, unknown, W. Reid, Staffan Widstrand Supporting Nutrient cycling Soil formation Primary productivity
Main Questions What is the rate and scale of ecosystem change? What are the consequences of ecosystem change for the services provided by ecosystems and for human- well being? How might ecosystems and their services change over the next 50 years? What options exist to conserve ecosystems and enhance their contributions to human well-being?
Using Multi-Scale Assessments Regional Users Regional Development Banks, etc. National Government Local Community Global Assessment National Local Rationale Characteristic scale of processes Greater resolution at smaller scales Independent validation of conclusions Response options matched to the scale where decision-making takes place Critical elements Research and monitoring Assessments methodologies Signals and Indicators of thresholds and resilience
MA Multi-Scale Assessment
MA Working Groups Scenario Working Group Given plausible changes in primary drivers, what will be the consequences for ecosystems, their services, and human well- being? Responses Working Group What can we do to enhance well-being and conserve ecosystems? Sub-Global Assessment Working Group All of the above… at sub-global scales Condition Working Group What is the current condition and historical trends of ecosystems and their services? What have been the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well- being?
Synthesis ReportsBoard Statement MA Conceptual Framework Technical Assessment Volumes
Main Findings Humans have radically altered ecosystems in last 50 years. Changes have brought gains but at growing costs that threaten achievement of development goals. Degradation of ecosystems could grow worse but can be reversed. Workable solutions will require significant changes in policy
The Balance Sheet Crops Livestock Aquaculture Carbon sequestration Capture fisheries Wild foods Wood fuel Genetic resources Biochemicals Fresh Water Air quality regulation Regional & local climate regulation Erosion regulation Water purification Pest regulation Pollination Natural Hazard regulation Spiritual & religious Aesthetic values Timber Fiber Water regulation Disease regulation Recreation & ecotourism EnhancedDegradedMixed Bottom Line: 60% of Ecosystem Services are Degraded
European Environment Agency Resilience, Reduction & Responsiveness The 3 Rs
MA Scenarios Percent Change by 2050 Food Demand 70-85% Water Withdrawal 30-85% Species Loss 10-15% (low certainty)
Changing the economic incentives Problem cant be solved so long as ecosystem services are treated as free and limitless Agricultural and fisheries production subsidies cause ecosystem service degradation.
Market mechanisms may sometimes be useful (e.g. potential to reduce nutrient releases and carbon emissions) Promising Options Rapid growth of Carbon market Ecosystem Marketplace: Online information on ecosystem service markets and payments for services
European Environment Agency Social cohesion - beyond GDP
Fiber Food Spiritual & religious Freshwater Genetic Resources Climate regulation Water purification Disease regulation Flood/Fire regulation Recreation & tourism Aesthetic Economic Value ($) Economic Valuation Difficult or impossible Easy Private Benefit Capture Difficult Easy ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Many services are public goods
European Environment Agency social & ecological sustainability social & ecological accountability
European Environment Agency Happiness counts The Unhappy Planet FoE/NEF 2006
Need for deliberative decision-making processes Decision-making could be improved with more information concerning the economic values of different ecosystem services (both marketed and non-marketed) But, not all ecosystem services that matter to people can be valued in economic terms (esp. cultural services and considerations of intrinsic value) Moreover, different stakeholders will place different weights on different attributes of ecosystems Deliberative decision-making processes provide a mechanism to enable these different types of value considerations to be articulated.
Business bottom line New Opportunities markets · Carbon market incentives · payments for ecosystem services businesses · ecosystem restoration technologies
Ecosystem Services Audit Undertake an ecosystem services audit What ecosystem services are used or influenced? Evaluate risks to those services Look for cost savings Assess information needs, expertise needed, and management plans Evaluate operating environment Factor into business strategies
1 billion in billion in billion in billion in 2005 World Population (billions) Source: UN Population Division 2004; Lee, 2003; Population Reference Bureau
European Environment Agency Accounting for each other