1. World Energy Outlook 2013 Timur Gül
Directorate of Global Energy Economics, IEA
Geneva, 21 November

2. The world energy scene today
Some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten
Countries are switching roles: importers are becoming exporters…
… and exporters are among the major sources of growing demand
New supply options reshape ideas about distribution of resources
But long-term solutions to global challenges remain scarce
Renewed focus on energy efficiency, but CO2 emissions continue to rise
Fossil-fuel subsidies increased to $544 billion in 2012
1.3 billion people lack electricity, 2.6 billion lack clean cooking facilities
Energy prices add to the pressure on policymakers
Sustained period of high oil prices without parallel in market history
Large, persistent regional price differences for gas & electricity

3. The engine of energy demand growth moves to South Asia
Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe)
Share of global growth
Eurasia
OECD
1 370
Eurasia
Latin America
1 710
Europe
65% 8% 5% 4%
4 060
China 8%
2 240
United States
Africa
440
Japan
1 050
Middle East
10%
Middle East
1 540
India
1 000
Southeast
Asia
480
Brazil
1 030
Africa
Non-OECD Asia
China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade, but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth

4. A mix that is slow to change
Growth in total primary energy demand
Gas
Coal
Renewables
Oil
Nuclear
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
Mtoe
Today's share of fossil fuels in the global mix, at 82%, is the same as it was 25 years ago; the strong rise of renewables only reduces this to around 75% in 2035
the strong rise of renewables only reduces this to around 75% in 2035

5. Emissions off track in the run-up to the 2015 climate summit in France
Cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions
OECD
Non-OECD
Total emissions
51%
49% Gt
800
600
Non-OECD
OECD
400
200
1900
1930
1960
1990
2013
-2035
-1929
-1959
-1989
-2012
Non-OECD countries account for a rising share of emissions, although 2035 per capita levels are only half of OECD

6. Two chapters to the oil production story
Contributions to global oil production growth
Conventional:
Middle East
Brazil
Rest of the world
Unconventional:
Light tight oil
Oil sands, extra-heavy oil, coal/gas-to-liquids, & other -8 -6 -4 -2 2 4 6 8
mb/d
but the Middle East is critical to the longer-term oil outlook
The United States (light tight oil) & Brazil (deepwater) step up until the mid-2020s,

7. A reorientation of Eurasian energy trade
Fossil fuel net import demand (Mtoe)
Asia
1000
1250
1500
Europe
Asia
750
750
500
500
250
250
2011
2035
Oil
Gas
Coal
Oil
Gas
Coal
Demand is pulling Eurasia’s energy exports eastwards, but major investments in the upstream and in infrastructure are required to break into expanding Asian markets

8. LNG from the United States can shake up gas markets
Indicative economics of LNG export from the US Gulf Coast (at current prices)
$/MBtu 18 15
$/MBtu 12 12
Average import price 9 9
Liquefaction, shipping
& regasification 6 6
United States price 3 3
To Asia
To Europe
New LNG supplies accelerate movement towards a more interconnected global market, but high costs of transport between regions mean no single global gas price
but high costs of transport between regions mean no single global gas price

9. Who has the energy to compete?
Ratio of industrial energy prices relative to the United States
Natural gas
Electricity 3× 4× 5×
Reduction from 2013
2003
2035
2013
2003 2×
United States
Japan
European
Union
China
Japan
European
Union
China
Regional differences in natural gas prices narrow from today’s very high levels but remain large through to 2035; electricity price differentials also persist
electricity price differentials also persist

10. Energy-intensive industries need to count their costs
Share of energy in total production costs for selected industries
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Petrochemicals
Fertilisers
Aluminium
Cement
Iron & steel
Pulp & paper
Glass
Energy-intensive sectors worldwide account for around one-fifth of industrial value added, one-quarter of industrial employment and 70% of industrial energy use.

11. An energy boost to the economy?
Share of global export market for energy-intensive goods
European Union
+3%
+1%
+2%
+2%
Japan
Today
36%
10% 7% 7% 3% 2%
China
Middle East
India
United States
-10%
-3%
The US, together with key emerging economies, increases its export market share for energy-intensive goods, while the EU and Japan see a sharp decline
while the EU and Japan see a sharp decline

12. Orientation for a fast-changing energy world
China, then India, drive the growing dominance of Asia in global energy demand & trade, with implications for Eurasian exports
Technology is opening up new oil resources, but the Middle East remains central to the longer-term outlook
Regional price gaps & concerns over competitiveness are here to stay, but there are ways to react – with efficiency first in line
The transition to a more efficient, low-carbon energy sector is more difficult in tough economic times, but no less urgent