1. The Role of Theory in the Discipline of Politics by Renske Doorenspleet

2. 2 of 24 Contents of this lecture (A) What is a theory? (B) What is a hypothesis? (C) What is a concept and a variable? (D) What are good theories? (E) Finally…

3. 3 of 24 (A) What is a theory? ESSENTIAL part of research process Theory Research Questions Concepts New theory Data analysis Data collection Case Selection

4. 4 of 24 (A) What is a theory? A theory is like a kaleidoscope: A tube, a number of lenses and fragments of coloured glass. When you turn the tube, the shapes and colours change. Different lenses come into play and the combinations of colour and shape shift from one pattern to another. (from O’Brien 1993)

5. 5 of 24 (A) What is a theory? Kaleidoscope? → maybe more a paradigm: an overall framework for looking at the reality (see Silverman 2005: Ch. 7; Babbie 2006 Ch 2) Positivism Structural functionalism, Feminism Etc.

6. 6 of 24 (A) What is a theory? A theory is a systematic explanation for observations that relate to a particular aspect of life (Babbie 2006: Ch. 2) A theory is a set of concepts used to define and/or explain some phenomenon (Silverman 2005: Ch. 7) Examples: theories of revolutions, poverty, war, terrorism, social class, political leadership, voting behaviour

7. 7 of 24 (A) What is a theory? Functions of theories: Framework Guide Explanation of empirical observations Systematize New ideas Debate, exchange of knowledge

8. 8 of 24 (A) What is a theory? Types of theories Normative theories: theories about how the world should be. Focused on thinking about ideal world. Empirical theories: theories about how the world actually is. Focused on describing and explaining political processes and events

9. 9 of 24 (A) What is a theory?

10. 10 of 24 (A) What is a theory? Theoretical idea: Only in a wealthy society can a situation exist in which ‘the mass of the population could intelligently participate in politics and could develop the self-restraint necessary to avoid succumbing to the appeals of irresponsible demagogues. A society divided between a large impoverished mass and a small favored elite would result either in oligarchy (...) or in tyranny’ (Lipset 1959: 75). A concrete example: Lipset’s explanation for democracy Lipset’s research question: Why are some countries democratic and other countries not?

11. 11 of 24 Several explanations for democracy Modernization theories (Lerner 1958; Lipset 1959) Dependency theories (Frank 1967; Amin 1976; Cardoso 1973) World-system theories (Wallerstein 1979) Historical structural theories (Moore 1966; Rueschemeyer et al. 1992) Actor-oriented approaches (Rustow 1970; O'Donnell et al. 1986; Przeworski 1991) (A) What is a theory?

12. 12 of 24 World System Role Transition to Democracy Economic Dependency Civil Society Development Class Structure Democratic Diffusion (Inter)Actions Political Elites (A) What is a theory?

13. 13 of 24 (B) What is a hypothesis? A testable proposition (Silverman 2005: Table 7.2) A statement that can be tested in research (Babbie 2006: 47) Hypothesis testing is designed to detect: significant differences between two or more variables: differences that did not occur by random chance significant relationships between two or more variables: relationships that did not occur by random chance

14. 14 of 24 (B) What is a hypothesis? Good examples on basis of Lipset’s 1959 article: ‘The more economic development, the more democracy in a country’ ‘Economic development is postively related to democracy, with more developed countries being more democratic than less developed countries’

15. 15 of 24 (B) What is a hypothesis? Bad examples on basis of Lipset’s 1959 article: ‘Poor countries are not democratic’ ‘Rich countries are democratic’ Not hypotheses, but more statements!

16. 16 of 24 (B) What is a hypothesis? Good examples from other research: ‘Gender is related to income, with men having a higher income than women’ ‘Men are more likely to earn a high income than are women’ (See also Babbie 2006: 47)

17. 17 of 24 (B) What is a hypothesis? Bad examples from other research: ‘Gender is positively related to income’ ‘Men are positively related to income’ (See also Babbie 2006: 47)

18. 18 of 24 (C) What is a concept and variable? A concept is an idea deriving from a given model (Silverman 2005: Ch. 7) Examples: Economic development Democracy Income Revolution Poverty War See also week 7 of this module

19. 19 of 24 (C) What is a concept and variable? Variables are traits that can change values from case to case Examples: Level of economic development(gnp per capita) Democracy (yes/no) Level of income (gnp per capita) Type of revolution (elite/mass) Age(0 ↔120?) Gender(m/f) Race(white, Asian, African, other) Social class (lower, middle, upper)

20. 20 of 24 (C) What is a concept and variable? Concepts on basis of Lipset’s 1959 article: Democracy Economic development Dependency and world-system role Class structure Actors Democratic diffusion Civil society

21. 21 of 24 (C) What is a concept and variable? Variables on basis of Lipset’s 1959 article: Level of democracy Level of economic development Level of dependency Type of class structure Level of democratic diffusion Size of civil society

22. 22 of 24 Ludwig Wittgenstein (1889-1951) One must start out with error and convert it into truth. That is, one must reveal the source of error, otherwise hearing the truth won’t do any good. The truth cannot force its way in when something else is occupying its place. To convince someone of the truth, it is not enough to state it, but rather one must find the path from error to truth. (D) What are good theories?

23. 23 of 24 Karl Popper (1902-1994) Scientific theories are falsifiable No 'verification', but 'falsification‘ Kuhn (1962) Paradigms Scientific revolutions Special position of Social Sciences (D) What are good theories?

24. 24 of 24 (E) FINALLY… inductive and deductive logic see Babbie 2006: 46-55 (p. 50, Figure 2.3!) next week: data collection Translation of Dutch cartoon: Fokke and Sukke know what it is all about in science. Fokke: ‘Very impressive, colleague, but does it also work in theory?’