1. ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au 1 Energy Change: from local to global Resources and Energy Workshop 20 th November 2015 Professor Ken Baldwin Director, ANU Energy Change Institute

2. ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au 2 Motivating Energy Change: Climate change Energy and security Energy access Energy productivity

3. ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au 3 A wide spectrum of Energy research: –Technologies ►Artificial Photosynthesis ►Biofuels ►Energy Storage and Recovery ►Enhanced Oil and Gas/ CCS ►Fusion Power ►Nuclear Science ►Smart Grid ►Solar PV/ Thermal/ Nano ►Wind Energy –Economics and Policy –Efficiency and Demand Management –Energy and Security –Energy-Water Nexus –Regulation and Governance –Sociology and Risk ANU Energy Change Institute Technology and Policy neutral ~$100 M Energy Research Facilities ~200 Staff and Students

4. ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au 4 Electricity demand and sources carbon tax removed Source: Pitt and Sherry, November 2015 Dr Arif Syed

5. ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au 5 5 National Electricity Market The “electricity death spiral” Social equity implications Renewable energy targets => greater renewable penetration Supply security => intermittency, death spiral, extreme events Exacerbated by continuing government policy uncertainty State Renewable PPAs ACT leads the way: 90% renewables by 2020 (100% 2025) States racing to secure the remaining cheapest renewables Microgrids (e.g. ANU) could be grid independent Electricity trends and key concerns

6. ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au 6 Future w/o carbon tax - 2020

7. ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au 7 Technology learning rate: solar PV Time Source: Fraunhofer Institute 2014 PV Report 1/40th price per module!

8. ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au 8 Future w/o carbon tax - 2020 New AETA needed

9. ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au 9 A massive energy change will be needed to address climate change Coal may be replaced first by gas, then by renewables / nuclear (CCS unlikely) Wind will be joined by large-scale PV after 2020 as the most competitive renewable Nuclear a viable baseload option – but will wind, PV, CSP + storage get there first? What will be the future for the grid? Best guess for the future

10. ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au 10 Extra 35GW by 2025 23% to come from renewables

11. ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au 11 WEO 2015 11 Ian Cronshaw

12. ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au 12 Energy sector investment to 2040 12

13. ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au 13 Ian Cronshaw -WEO 2015 Byron Washom -UC San Diego energy microgrid (92% supply) ECI Energy Update, Dec 8th 13 ANU H.C. Coombs Theatre Tuesday 8 th December, 08.30 – 17.30