1. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crop Outlook Pro Ag Fall 2011 Outlook Seminars Sheldon and Cherokee, Iowa Nov. 8, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

2. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008200920102011 Area Planted(mil. acres)86.086.488.291.9 Yield(bu./acre)153.9164.7152.8148.1 Production(mil. bu.)12,09213,09212,44712,433 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6241,6731,7081,128 Imports(mil. bu.)1482715 Total Supply(mil. bu.)13,72914,77414,18213,576 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)5,1825,1254,8034,700 Ethanol(mil. bu.)3,7094,5915,0205,000 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3161,3701,3951,410 Exports(mil. bu.)1,8491,9801,8351,600 Total Use(mil. bu.)12,05613,06613,05312,710 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6731,7081,128866 Season-Average Price($/bu.)4.063.555.186.70 Source: USDA-WAOB

3. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2008200920102011 Area Planted(mil. acres)75.777.577.475.0 Yield(bu./acre)39.744.043.541.5 Production(mil. bu.)2,9673,3593,3293,060 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)205138151215 Imports(mil. bu.)1315 Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,1853,5123,4953,290 Crush(mil. bu.)1,6621,7521,6481,635 Seed & Residual(mil. bu.)106110132120 Exports(mil. bu.)1,2791,4991,5001,375 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,0473,3613,2803,130 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)138151215160 Season-Average Price($/bu.)9.979.5911.3013.15 Source: USDA-WAOB

4. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Projected Corn Yields Source: USDA-NASS

5. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Projected Soybean Yields Source: USDA-NASS

6. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Harvest Pace Source: USDA-NASS

7. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Harvest Pace Source: USDA-NASS

8. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

9. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

10. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn vs. Wheat Source: CME Group, 11/7/2011

11. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Cattle Crush Margin Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 poundsFeeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head

12. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Hog Crush Margin Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 poundsPig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pigSoybean meal: 150 pounds per pig

13. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

14. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

15. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

16. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

17. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Crop Year Billion Bushels 20114.64 20124.86 20135.07 20145.29

18. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol Source: DOE-EIA

19. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Margins Source: CARD

20. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Blending Advantage

21. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

22. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

23. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

24. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price

25. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

26. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

27. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Principal Crop Area Source: USDA-NASS

28. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics States with Room to Grow Number is the difference in planted acres between 2008 and 2011

29. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Iowa Crop Margins

30. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

32. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond  General economic conditions  Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices  US job recovery, European financial concerns, Chinese inflation  Supply/demand concerns  Smaller than anticipated U.S. crops  Biofuel growth and energy demand  Corn still has the upper hand in the acreage competition  Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?  2011/12:USDA:Corn $6.70; Soy $13.15 Futures (as of 11/7/11):Corn $6.27; Soy $11.69  2012/13: Futures (as of 11/7/11):Corn $5.94; Soy $11.80

33. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/