1. The McCain Nomination in 2008 The Effect of the Winner-Take-All Rule

2. Comparison of Super Tuesday 2008 & 2012

3. Republican Delegate Count to Date Needed to Nominate: 1144

4. Obama Polling Match-Ups Obama (48.6%) - Mitt Romney (45.0%) Obama (49.6%) - Rick Santorum (43.6%) Obama (51.8%) - Newt Gingrich (40.0%) Obama (49.5%) - Ron Paul (43.0%) Sourced from Real Clear Politics average of five polls (Rasmussen, NBC/Wall Street Journal, Politico/George Washington University, USA Today/Gallup and Associated Press/Roper) taken between 16th February–10th March)

5. Electoral Vote in 2004 & 2008 270 Electoral Votes Required to Win 2004 George W. Bush 286 John Kerry 251(-19) 2008 John McCain 173 Barack Obama 365 (+95)

6. The Kerry-Plus States Colorado Florida Indiana Iowa Nevada New Mexico North Carolina Ohio Virginia

7. The Kerry-Plus States (with 2008 Electoral Vote) Colorado9 Florida27 Indiana11 Iowa7 Nevada5 New Mexico5 North Carolina15 Ohio20 Virginia13 _____________________ Total 112

8. The Kerry-Plus States (with 2008 and 2012 Electoral Vote) 2008 2012 Colorado99 Florida2729 (+2) Indiana1111 Iowa76(-1) Nevada56(+1) New Mexico55 North Carolina1515 Ohio2018(-2) Virginia1313 _______________________________ Total 112112

9. Net Effect of Electoral College Redistribution States Won By Obama in 2008-6 States Won By McCain in 2008+6 When applied to 2008 Electoral Vote …… Obama 359 McCain 179

10. The Kerry-Plus States (with 2008 Margin of Victory and 2012 Electoral Vote) EVs Margin Share of Vote Colorado98.9%54.5% Florida29 2.8% 51.4%* Indiana111.3%50.5%* Iowa69.5%54.9%* Nevada612.5%56.4% New Mexico515.3%57.6% North Carolina150.3%50.2%* Ohio184.6%52.3%* Virginia136.3%53.2%* _____________________________________________________ Total 112 *Potential loss = 92 EVs

11. Obama – The Electoral College Maths 1.Needed to Win - 270 Electoral Votes 2. Total in 2008 – 365 Electoral Votes (95 in excess of 270) 3.Already lost 6 Electoral Votes from 2010 House of Representatives reapportionment. 4.Losses from six asterisked “Kerry-Plus” States = 92 Electoral Votes 365 – 6 – 92 = 267 Electoral Votes