1. Presidential Elections The people who cast the votes do not decide an election, the people who count the votes do. -- Joseph Stalin (1879 - 1953)

2. Presidential Elections How are candidates “nominated?” The “Rhythm” of the Race” How are candidates “elected?” The Winning Strategy

3. How Are Candidates Nominated? I don't care who does the electing just so long as I do the nominating. --“Boss” William M. Tweed Tammany Hall, 1858-1871

4. How Are Candidates Nominated? Convention

5. How Are Candidates Nominated? Convention Caucus

6. How Are Candidates Nominated? Convention Caucus Primary

7. McGovern-Fraser Commission Officially known as the Commission on Party Structure and Delegate Selection (1968) Published a report called Mandate for Reform (1970) Recommended delegate selection procedures to be open (i.e. not secret) Recommended proportional representation of underrepresented groups

8. Votes Cast in Presidential Primaries, 1912-2000 "Sources: 1912–1996: Congressional Quarterly’s Presidential Elections 1789–1996, 141; 2000: derived by the editors from Rhodes Cook, Race for the Presidency: Winning the 2000 Nomination, and CQ Weekly, “GOP Convention Guide,” July 29, 2000, 1866 ff., “Democratic Convention Guide,” August 12, 2000, 27 ff."

9. The “Rhythm” of the Race Invisible Primary

10. The “Rhythm” of the Race Invisible Primary Bellwether Primaries

11. The Bellwether Primaries, 2008 January 3:Iowa caucuses January 5:Wyoming (R) caucuses January 8: New Hampshire primary January 15: Michigan primary January 19: Nevada caucuses South Carolina (R) primary January 26: South Carolina (D) primary January 29: Florida primary

12. Bellwether Primaries, 2008 CandidateBellwether PrimariesSuper Tuesday Hillary Clinton New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, Florida Barack Obama Iowa, South Carolina Mike Huckabee Iowa John McCain New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida Mitt Romney Wyoming, Michigan, Nevada, Maine

13. The “Rhythm” of the Race Invisible Primary Bellwether Primaries Battleground Primaries

14. Delegates Chosen by March 15, 1976-2004

15. The Battleground Primaries, 2008 January 3:Iowa caucuses January 5:Wyoming (R) caucuses January 8: New Hampshire primary January 15: Michigan primary January 19: Nevada caucuses South Carolina (R) primary January 26: South Carolina (D) primary January 29: Florida primary February 1: Maine (R) caucuses February 5Alaska caucuses, Alabama primary, Arizona primary, Arkansas primary, California primary, Colorado caucuses, Connecticut primary, Delaware primary, Georgia primary, Idaho (D) caucuses, Illinois primary, Kansas (D) caucuses, Massachusetts primary, Minnesota caucuses, Missouri primary, New Jersey primary, New Mexico (D) caucuses, New York primary, North Dakota caucuses, Oklahoma primary, Tennessee primary, Utah primary February 9: Kansas (R) caucuses, Louisiana primary, Nebraska (D) caucuses February 10: Maine (D) caucuses February 12: District of Columbia primary, Maryland primary, Virginia primary February 19: Hawaii (D) caucuses, Washington primary, Wisconsin primary March 4: Ohio primary, Rhode Island primary, Texas primary, Vermont primary March 8: Wyoming (D) caucuses March 11: Mississippi primary

16. Super Tuesday Primaries, 2008 CandidateBellwether PrimariesSuper Tuesday Hillary Clinton New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, Florida Arkansas, Arizona, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee Barack Obama Iowa, South CarolinaAlabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico*, North Dakota, Utah Mike Huckabee IowaAlabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, West Virginia John McCain New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma Mitt Romney Wyoming, Michigan, Nevada, Maine Alaska, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Utah

17. The Rhythm of the Race Invisible Primary Bellwether Primaries Battleground Primaries Bridge Primaries

18. The Rhythm of the Race Invisible Primary Bellwether Primaries Battleground Primaries Bridge Primaries The Conventions

19. How Are Candidates Elected? Actually chosen by “Electors” Electors allocated in most states using the “Unit Rule”

20. Electoral and Popular Vote, 1828-2000

21. Electoral College Strategy

23. Media Strategy

24. Airwar Strategy