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A System Dynamics Approach to Global Warming A System Dynamics Approach to Global Warming (Noah) Junho Kang
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Introduction Global Warming Debate “Greenhouse” gases Why should we worry?
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Purpose/Goals Create a convincing model of global warming scenario “Complicated enough to explain the whole scenario to a reasonable extent, but simple enough to be understood easily and applied”
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Scope of the Project Estimate, to a certain degree, the effects that increasing amount of Carbon Dioxide gas will have on the Earth's atmosphere over a fixed period of time. The "effects" currently include, but is not limited to, global temperatures, frequency of hurricanes, methane release, and other consequences that will arise from increasing global temperature.
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Background Daisyworld Parallel Computing-based Climate Simulations System Dynamics Modeling and Agent- based Modeling Netlogo’s System Dynamics Modeler
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System Dynamics Model (Carbon Cycle) OceanAtmosphereFossil Fuel SoilLand Biota Out/In (Negligible)
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Explanation of Variables Used Fossil Fuel: Amount of Carbon present in Fossil Fuel Atmosphere: Amount of Carbon inside Atmosphere, directly affects Global Temperature Land Biota: Amount of Carbon present in Land organisms, like plants. Help control the amount of carbon by Photosynthesis/Respiration
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Explanation of Variables Used Soil: Amount of Carbon present in Soil, controls the amount of Carbon Dioxide in Atmosphere by respiration (and slowly recovers the amount of Fossil Fuel). Ocean: Amount of Carbon present in Ocean, mostly in the form of Carbon Dioxide and Methane dissolved in water. Potentially very important, helps control amount of carbon by dissolving it.
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System Dynamics Model (Secondary) Global Temperature IceHurricanes Albedo Ocean Temperature Methane
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Explanation of Variables Used Global Temperature Amount of Ice: Directly affects albedo of earth Albedo: Reflectance of earth, ranging from 0-1 Ocean Temperature Methane Hurricanes
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Other Factors Great ocean conveyer belt shut-down Changes in sunlight intensity Polar ice caps melt resulting in sudden salinity changes ?
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Netlogo Model Secondary Model Variables Used
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Results
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Results Temperature increase of about 1-5 degrees globally? Even if carbon output was to completely shut down now, temperature will keep on increasing for a while Results hint at a possibility of accelerating temperature increase, aided by melting of ice caps and release of methane gas
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