1. Recent NASA-NOAA Tropical Cyclone Collaborations CAMEX-3 06 Aug – 23 Sept 1998; Patrick AFB, FL; TC development, tracking, intensification, and landfalling impacts; Hurricane structure, dynamics, and motion; Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, & Georges; CAMEX-4 16 Aug – 24 Sept 2001; Jacksonville NAS, FL; TC develop., tracking, intensification, and landfalling impacts; Study of storms as they approach landfall (Carib., GMex, & U.S. E coast); Chantal, Erin, Humberto;

2. Recent NASA-NOAA Tropical Cyclone Collaborations TCSP July 2005; San Jose, Costa Rica; TC genesis (early life cycle); collect temp., humidity, precip., and wind information related to TCs Dennis, Emily, pre-Eugene, Gert; NAMMA 16 Aug – 24 Sept 2006; Sal, Cape Verde; study the formation and evolution of TCs & AEWs in the E and Centr. Atl; study the composition and structure of the Saharan Air Layer; study how aerosols may affect cloud precipitation and TC development; Debby, Pre-Ernesto, pre-Florence, Helene, 3 AEWs

3. NAMMA TCSP TCSP Domain: Terrain AEWs vs. In Situ NAMMA Domain: Dusts AEWs

4. NOAA’s Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) Program Motivation

5. IFEX (NOAA NHC, EMC, HRD) GOAL 3 Improve our understanding of the physical processes important in intensity change for a TC at all stages of its lifecycle; GOAL 2 Develop and refine measurement technologies that provide improved real-time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment; Goal 1 Collect observations that span the TC lifecycle in a variety of environments;

6. P-3 TC Missions by Lifecycle Stage (1976-2004) Hurricane 68% (n=387) Tropical Storm 24% (n=140) Tropical Disturbance 3% (n=19) Tropical Depression 5% (n=30)

7. NOAA Operational Priorities 1)TC intensity change 2) Early lifecycle, including genesis 3) NOAA Joint Hurricane Testbed Priorities: (TPC-1) Guidance for tropical cyclone intensity change, with highest priority on the onset, duration, and magnitude of rapid intensification events. Similar guidance is also needed on when rapid over-water weakening (such as had been observed in recent Gulf of Mexico hurricanes) will occur; (TPC-2) Improved observational systems in the storm and its environment that provide data for forecaster analysis and model initialization; (TPC-11) Guidance for tropical cyclone genesis that exhibits a high probability of detection and a low false alarm rate, and/or provides probability of genesis; (EMC 1) General model improvements to advance track and intensity forecasts; (EMC 3) Model validation techniques suitable for three dimensional high resolution verification for all phases of the tropical cyclone life cycle;

8. Scientific Needs 1) Multi-scale processes (synoptic, mesoscale, convective, microscale) 2) Multiple platforms needed to cover storm- and synoptic-environments

9. Proposed Science Develop scientific goals that represent a fusion of TCSP & NAMMA science Merging of overlapping goals & available assets to address multi-scale nature of the problem; Genesis/early lifecycle studies;

10. Some Questions to Address 1) What are the precursors for rapid intensification? Synoptic scale: vertical shear, SST, OHC, PI, humidity; Vortex-scale: size of incipient vortex, humidity; 2) What is the impact of variations in the synoptic-scale environment (e.g., dry air, vertical shear, aerosols, wave deformation/accumulation) on developing tropical cyclones? 3) What governs interaction between the synoptic environment and incipient vortex (e.g., size of vortex, “marsupial” hypothesis)? 4) What is the role of deep convection (e.g., convective bursts, VHTs) in TC genesis and intensity change? 5) What are the differences in the precipitation morphology and related microphysical structures at various lifecycle stages?

11. Studying TCs in the EPAC vs Atlantic EPAC well defined SST gradients vertical shear tends to be more uniform main development region tends to have higher moisture content TC “factory”…prime region for genesis studies not an ideal location for current NOAA IFEX interests (e.g. U.S. impact) doesn’t fuse some of NAMMA’s main objectives (SAL & aerosol studies) Atlantic land interactions, fronts (e.g. GMex & U.S. east coast) >atmospheric variability over <distance Saharan Air Layer (dry air, dust, enhanced vertical wind shear) GMex: horizontal heterogeneity in mixed layer depths marginal basin (early lifecycle studies more of a challenge) better overlap with NOAA IFEX interests likelihood of better fusion of TCSP & NAMMA objectives deployment “east”: probably ideal for NOAA (Barb, St. Croix, San Juan?) -reduced chance for conflicts with operational tasking -better chance for life cycle studies (research initiates missions, operations picks up if systems threaten coastline) -accessible to the central Atlantic and Caribbean region

12. 1) Two P-3s (inner core) GPS dropsondes, airborne Doppler radar, microphysics, SFMR, flight-level data; NOAA Aircraft Assets 2) G-IV (environment) GPS dropsondes, airborne Doppler radar (2009), flight- level data; 3) UAV (inner core, environment) Flight-level thermo & winds;

13. Barbados San Juan St. Croix 80W90W100W70W60W 50W40W30W20W 20N 30N 40N 50N 10N MDR NOAA P-3 Orions

14. Barbados San Juan St. Croix 80W90W100W70W60W 50W40W30W20W 20N 30N 40N 50N 10N NOAA G-IV MDR

15. Barbados San Juan St. Croix 80W90W100W70W60W 50W40W30W20W 20N 30N 40N 50N 10N Key West Aerosonde MDR

16. Atlantic/Caribbean Genesis Locations (1944-1999)

17. Rapid Intensification in the EPAC vs Atlantic HRD RI Index (Atlantic) RI threshold: 30 kt in 24 hr RI cases: 185 out of 2504 overall TC cases (10-yr dataset) HRD RI Index (EPAC) RI threshold: 35 kt in 24 hr RI cases: 125 out of 1950 overall TC cases (10-yr dataset) Rapid Intensifiers: EPAC (94 th perc) vs Atlantic (93 rd perc) 75% less skill in the Atlantic (relative to RI climatology)

18. GFDI SHIFOR Official DSHP Spatial Distribution of Intensity Error (2003-2006; tau=48h) Tim Marchok, GFDL

19. Spatial Distribution of Intensity Skill (2003-2006; tau=48h) GFDI Official DSHP GFDL & SHIPS have trouble in Caribbean & Bahamas region, but still beat SHIFOR SHIFOR is tough to beat in the north central Atlantic region Note: Deeper blues & purples indicate greater skill; deeper oranges a lack of skill. Tim Marchok, GFDL

20. NOAA To Dos Check on updated NOAA Aircraft allocation plans for the 2009-2011 timeframe; Estimate costs (expendables, manpower, etc) for various field program scenarios being discussed; Early discussions between HRD and its other IFEX partners (NHC & EMC)…summer 2007; More formal follow-up discussions between NASA reps and IFEX partners…fall 2007?