Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Convective-scale diagnostics Rob Rogers NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division.

Published by Modified over 8 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Convective-scale diagnostics Rob Rogers NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division."— Presentation transcript:

1 Convective-scale diagnostics Rob Rogers NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division

2 Advances in forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, and rapid intensity change (RI) in particular, lag advances in TC track forecasts Multiscale nature of these processes major reason for this environmental - O(1000 km) - troughs, shear vortex - O(1-100 km) - symmetric/asymmetric dynamics, VRWs convective – O(1 km) – convective bursts, vortical hot towers turbulent – O(1-100 m) - surface fluxes, entrainment/detrainment microscale – O(1mm) -- hydrometeor production, latent heat release Large-scale fields generally explain about 35% of skill in RI forecasts (e.g., RI index). How much can smaller-scale processes explain? Numerical model forecasts of rapid intensity change (RI) should improve as resolution increases For some cases it does, in others it does not – why? Robust diagnostic techniques for isolating impacts of physical processes of various scales on RI important for improved physical understanding, model evaluation and improvement Motivation

3 Kaplan et al. 2009 35% of skill explained by Rapid Intensification Index (RII) Motivation

4 Summary of diagnostics Vortex-scale diagnostics test of initial vortex structure, environment-vortex-convective interactions, resolution symmetric structure of tangential, radial, vertical wind radial distribution vertical structure time evolution Convective-scale diagnostics test of physical parameterizations (microphysical, convective), resolution statistics of vertical motion, mass flux time-height vertical profiles vertical structure of distributions time evolution of distributions masking with 0.1 g/kg hydrometeor concentration used to approximate Doppler sensitivity and facilitate comparison with observations

5 8/27 00Z8/27 06Z8/27 12Z8/27 18Z 8/28 00Z8/28 06Z8/28 12Z8/28 18Z 8/29 00Z8/29 06Z8/29 12Z 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Peak wind (kt) RI BT RI 9:3 km RI 27:9 km Hurricane Katrina (2005) Underwent RI from Cat 3 to Cat 5 as it traversed Gulf of Mexico Both resolutions produced RI, but both delayed Good observational coverage (multiple P-3 flights with Doppler) Example

6 00Z Aug 27 12Z Aug 27 00Z Aug 28 12Z Aug 28 00Z Aug 29 12Z Aug 29 50100150200 00Z Aug 27 12Z Aug 27 00Z Aug 28 12Z Aug 28 00Z Aug 29 12Z Aug 29 50100150200 00Z Aug 27 12Z Aug 27 00Z Aug 28 12Z Aug 28 00Z Aug 29 12Z Aug 29 50100150200 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 radius (km) RI Time-radius Hovmoller of axisymmetric 10-m wind from H*Wind and HWRF-x Vortex-scale diagnostics: Wind field size & structure H*Wind HWRF-x 27:9 km HWRF-x 9:3 km

7 IKE 8/27 00Z8/27 06Z8/27 12Z8/27 18Z 8/28 00Z8/28 06Z8/28 12Z8/28 18Z 8/29 00Z8/29 06Z8/29 12Z8/27 00Z8/27 06Z8/27 12Z8/27 18Z 8/28 00Z8/28 06Z8/28 12Z8/28 18Z 8/29 00Z8/29 06Z8/29 12Z 0 50 100 150 200 250 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 IKE (TJ) obs 9:3 km obs 9:3 km27:9 km Time series of integrated kinetic energy (IKE) for 10-m winds thresholded by tropical storm and hurricane force winds from H*Wind and HWRF-x Vortex-scale diagnostics: Wind field size & structure IKE thresholded by tropical storm-force windsIKE thresholded by hurricane-force winds

8 255075100 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 height (km) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 255075100255075100 255075 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 height (km) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 255075100255075100 radius (km) Axisymmetric tangential (shaded, m s -1 ) and radial wind (contour, m s -1 ) for Doppler and HWRF-x 20:08Z 8/27 19:23Z 8/28 00Z 8/28 03Z 8/29 00Z 8/28 03Z 8/29 27:9 km9:3 kmDoppler 27:9 km9:3 kmDoppler Vortex-scale diagnostics: Vertical structure of axisymmetric vortex

9 8/27 00Z8/27 06Z8/27 12Z8/27 18Z 8/28 00Z8/28 06Z8/28 12Z8/28 18Z 8/29 00Z8/29 06Z8/29 12Z 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 radius (km) obs 9:3 km27:9 km Time series of radius of peak axisymmetric tangential wind at 2 km altitude (km) from Doppler and HWRF-x Vortex-scale diagnostics: Time evolution of vortex size

10 50 100150200 radius (km) 25 75125175 50 100150200 radius (km) 25 75125175 50 100150200 radius (km) 25 75125175 50 100150200 radius (km) 25 75125175 00Z Aug 27 12Z Aug 27 00Z Aug 28 12Z Aug 28 00Z Aug 29 12Z Aug 29 00Z Aug 27 12Z Aug 27 00Z Aug 28 12Z Aug 28 00Z Aug 29 12Z Aug 29 00Z Aug 27 12Z Aug 27 00Z Aug 28 12Z Aug 28 00Z Aug 29 12Z Aug 29 00Z Aug 27 12Z Aug 27 00Z Aug 28 12Z Aug 28 00Z Aug 29 12Z Aug 29 RI Time-radius Hovmoller of axisymmetric tangential wind and vertical velocity at 5.1 km altitude 27:9 km 9:3 km 27:9 km 9:3 km utut utut w w Vortex-scale diagnostics: Time evolution of axisymmetric vortex size

11 50 100150200 radius (km) 25 75125175 50 100150200 radius (km) 25 75125175 50 100150200 radius (km) 25 75125175 50 100150200 radius (km) 25 75125175 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 height (km) 18 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 height (km) 18 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 height (km) 18 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 height (km) 18 Axisymmetric tangential wind (shaded, m s -1 ) and vertical velocity (contour, m s -1 ) 27:9 km 9:3 km 00Z 8/28 03Z 8/29 00Z 8/28 03Z 8/29 Vortex-scale diagnostics: Vertical structure of axisymmetric vortex

12 8/27 00Z8/27 06Z8/27 12Z8/27 18Z 8/28 00Z8/28 06Z8/28 12Z8/28 18Z 8/29 00Z8/29 06Z8/29 12Z -3 -2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Eyewall slope (km/km) obs 9:3 km27:9 km Time series of 2-8 km altitude eyewall slope (km km -1 ) from Doppler and HWRF-x Vortex-scale diagnostics: Time evolution of vortex vertical structure Outward slope with height Inward slope with height

13 Wind speed (m/s) at 2-km altitude Vorticity (shaded, x 10 -3 s -1 ) and w (contour, m/s) at 4- km altitude Doppler 27:9 km HWRF-x 9:3 km HWRF-x 50 100 150050 100 150050 100 1500 50 100 150 0 50 100 150 0 50 100 150 0 50 100 150050 100 1500 50 100 150 0 50 100 150 0 500 0 0 -2 1 3 5 7 2 4 6 35 30 40 50 60 70 45 55 65 distance (km) 2038-2231 UTC 8/280000 UTC 8/29 Vortex- and convective-scale diagnostics: Wind speed, vertical motion, and vorticity

14 Time series of mean updraft/downdraft velocity (m s -1 ) profiles in 4° box with masking 8/27 12Z8/27 18Z 8/28 00Z 8/28 06Z8/28 12Z8/28 18Z 8/29 00Z 8/29 06Z8/29 12Z height (km) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Updraft27:9 km RI 8/27 12Z8/27 18Z 8/28 00Z 8/28 06Z8/28 12Z8/28 18Z 8/29 00Z 8/29 06Z8/29 12Z height (km) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Updraft9:3 km RI 8/28 06Z8/28 12Z8/28 18Z 8/29 00Z 8/29 06Z8/29 12Z 8/27 12Z8/27 18Z 8/28 00Z height (km) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Downdraft27:9 km RI 8/27 12Z8/27 18Z 8/28 00Z 8/28 06Z8/28 12Z8/28 18Z 8/29 00Z 8/29 06Z8/29 12Z height (km) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Downdraft9:3 km RI Convective-scale diagnostics: Time evolution of vertical profiles

15 Time series of aggregate updraft/downdraft vertical mass flux (x 10 10 kg s -1 ) profiles in 4° box with masking 8/27 12Z8/27 18Z 8/28 00Z 8/28 06Z8/28 12Z8/28 18Z 8/29 00Z 8/29 06Z8/29 12Z height (km) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Downdraft9:3 km 8/27 12Z8/27 18Z 8/28 00Z 8/28 06Z8/28 12Z8/28 18Z 8/29 00Z 8/29 06Z8/29 12Z height (km) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Updraft27:9 km RI 8/27 12Z8/27 18Z 8/28 00Z 8/28 06Z8/28 12Z8/28 18Z 8/29 00Z 8/29 06Z8/29 12Z height (km) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Downdraft27:9 km RI 8/27 12Z8/27 18Z 8/28 00Z 8/28 06Z8/28 12Z8/28 18Z 8/29 00Z 8/29 06Z8/29 12Z height (km) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Updraft9:3 km RI Convective-scale diagnostics: Time evolution of vertical profiles

16 height (km) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 -6 -4 -2 0 2 46 8 10 vertical velocity (m/s) 12 1 km -2 0 1 23 4 5 vertical velocity (m/s) 6 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 percentage 14 km -2 0 1 23 4 5 6 vertical velocity (m/s) 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 percentage vertical velocity Convective-scale diagnostics: Contoured frequency by altitude diagram (CFAD)

17 height (km) 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 -6 -4 -2 0 2 46 8 10 12 vertical velocity (m/s) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 -6 -4 -2 0 2 46 8 10 12 vertical velocity (m/s) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 -6 -4 -2 0 2 46 8 10 12 vertical velocity (m/s) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 -6 -4 -2 0 2 46 8 10 vertical velocity (m/s) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 -6 -4 -2 0 2 46 8 10 12 vertical velocity (m/s) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 -6 -4 -2 0 2 46 8 10 12 vertical velocity (m/s) Vertical velocity CFADs for Doppler radar and HWRF-x with masking 20:08Z 8/27 22:31Z 8/28 12Z 8/27 12Z 8/28 12Z 8/27 12Z 8/28 27:9 km 9:3 km Doppler Convective-scale diagnostics: Contoured frequency by altitude diagram (CFAD)

18 00Z Aug 27 12Z Aug 27 00Z Aug 28 12Z Aug 28 00Z Aug 29 12Z Aug 29 00Z Aug 30 00Z Aug 27 12Z Aug 27 00Z Aug 28 12Z Aug 28 00Z Aug 29 12Z Aug 29 00Z Aug 30 00Z Aug 27 12Z Aug 27 00Z Aug 28 12Z Aug 28 00Z Aug 29 12Z Aug 29 00Z Aug 30 00Z Aug 27 12Z Aug 27 00Z Aug 28 12Z Aug 28 00Z Aug 29 12Z Aug 29 00Z Aug 30 -6 -4 -2 0 2 46 8 10 12 -6 -4 -2 0 2 46 8 10 12 -6 -4 -2 0 2 46 8 10 12 -6 -4 -2 0 2 46 8 10 12 vertical velocity (m/s) 14 km alt27:9 km 5 km alt27:9 km 14 km alt9:3 km 5 km alt9:3 km Time series of vertical velocity distribution (%) at 5- and 14-km altitudes with masking RI Convective-scale diagnostics: Time evolution of distributions

19 8/27 12Z8/27 18Z 8/28 00Z 8/28 06Z 8/28 12Z8/28 18Z 8/29 00Z8/29 06Z8/29 12Z8/27 12Z8/27 18Z 8/28 00Z 8/28 06Z 8/28 12Z8/28 18Z 8/29 00Z8/29 06Z8/29 12Z 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 area (x 10 4 km 2 ) Time series of areal coverage (x 10 4 km 2 ) of threshold values of 3-7 km vertical velocity in 4x4 deg box with masking 27:9 km9:3 km 1 m s -1 2 m s -1 3 m s -1 1 m s -1 2 m s -1 3 m s -1 RI Convective-scale diagnostics: Time evolution of convective coverage

20 Summary convective- and vortex-scale diagnostics can reveal much about inner-core structure and evolution from model and observations RMW, size of wind field at various thresholds, integrated kinetic energy secondary eyewall, outer rainband evolution, eyewall slope vertical velocity and mass flux profiles vertical structure of vertical velocity distributions time evolution of vertical velocity distributions differences between HWRF-x and observations for Katrina case both resolutions produced RI, but both were delayed. 9:3 km was sooner, stronger than 27:9 km vortex-scale RMW broader, outer wind field smaller in model compared to observations both resolutions produced outer updraft maxima, 9:3 km produced hint of contracting secondary eyewall eyewall slope generally less for 9:3 km than 27:9 km, more time evolution convective-scale mean updraft profiles peaked at higher altitude, downdrafts stronger in 9:3 km stronger updraft and downdraft mass flux in 9:3 km stronger updraft/downdraft, vorticity cores in 9:3 km all these quantities readily calculated from HWRF-x, airborne Doppler, and H*Wind analyses

21 Future work include azimuthal asymmetries partition into precipitation structure regimes (eyewall/rainband/stratiform) finer-scale diagnostics (turbulent, microphysical) from model and observations broaden to multi-case diagnostics – normalization issues? ensemble-based diagnostics

Download ppt "Convective-scale diagnostics Rob Rogers NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division."

Similar presentations

AMS Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology Conference Tucson May 9, 2010 Vertical distribution of radar reflectivity in eyewalls observed by TRMM Deanna A.

AMS Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology Conference Tucson May 9, 2010 Vertical distribution of radar reflectivity in eyewalls observed by TRMM Deanna A.
Impact of environmental moisture on intensification of Hurricane Earl (2010) Longtao Wu, Hui Su, and Robert Fovell HS3 Science Meeting 2014 1 May 2014.

Impact of environmental moisture on intensification of Hurricane Earl (2010) Longtao Wu, Hui Su, and Robert Fovell HS3 Science Meeting May 2014.
Rappin et al. (2011) Paper Discussion Patrick Duran 1 of 22 Introduction Asymmetric Env.ConclusionsQuestionsSymmetric Env. The Impact of Outflow Environment.

Rappin et al. (2011) Paper Discussion Patrick Duran 1 of 22 Introduction Asymmetric Env.ConclusionsQuestionsSymmetric Env. The Impact of Outflow Environment.
HEDAS ANALYSIS STATISTICS (2008-2011) by Altug Aksoy (NOAA/AOML/HRD) HEDAS retrospective/real-time analyses have been performed for the years 2008-2011.

HEDAS ANALYSIS STATISTICS ( ) by Altug Aksoy (NOAA/AOML/HRD) HEDAS retrospective/real-time analyses have been performed for the years
To perform statistical analyses of observations from dropsondes, microphysical imaging probes, and coordinated NOAA P-3 and NASA ER-2 Doppler radars To.

To perform statistical analyses of observations from dropsondes, microphysical imaging probes, and coordinated NOAA P-3 and NASA ER-2 Doppler radars To.
Sudden Track Changes of Tropical Cyclones in Monsoon Gyres: Full-Physics, Idealized Numerical Experiments Jia Liang and Liguang Wu Pacific Typhoon Research.

Sudden Track Changes of Tropical Cyclones in Monsoon Gyres: Full-Physics, Idealized Numerical Experiments Jia Liang and Liguang Wu Pacific Typhoon Research.
Sensitivity of High-Resolution Simulations of Hurricane Bob (1991) to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations SCOTT A. BRAUN AND WEI-KUO TAO PRESENTATION.

Sensitivity of High-Resolution Simulations of Hurricane Bob (1991) to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations SCOTT A. BRAUN AND WEI-KUO TAO PRESENTATION.
5/22/201563rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL Experiments of Hurricane Initialization with Airborne Doppler.

5/22/201563rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL Experiments of Hurricane Initialization with Airborne Doppler.
Summary of NOAA's 2010 Hurricane Field Program (IFEX) Robert Rogers – 2010 HFP Field Program Director 1.

Summary of NOAA's 2010 Hurricane Field Program (IFEX) Robert Rogers – 2010 HFP Field Program Director 1.
Summary of NOAA's 2010 Hurricane Field Program (IFEX) Robert Rogers – 2010 HFP Field Program Director 1.

Summary of NOAA's 2010 Hurricane Field Program (IFEX) Robert Rogers – 2010 HFP Field Program Director 1.
February 5th, 20082008 TRMM Conference The 3-D Reflectivity Structure of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes as seen by the TRMM PR Deanna Hence, Robert Houze.

February 5th, TRMM Conference The 3-D Reflectivity Structure of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes as seen by the TRMM PR Deanna Hence, Robert Houze.
Three-Dimensional Precipitation Structure of Tropical Cyclones AMS Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology Conference May 2nd, 2008 Deanna A. Hence and Robert.

Three-Dimensional Precipitation Structure of Tropical Cyclones AMS Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology Conference May 2nd, 2008 Deanna A. Hence and Robert.
Principal Rainband of Hurricane Katrina as observed in RAINEX Anthony C. Didlake, Jr. 28 th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology April 29,

Principal Rainband of Hurricane Katrina as observed in RAINEX Anthony C. Didlake, Jr. 28 th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology April 29,
Some Preliminary Modeling Results on the Upper-Level Outflow of Hurricane Sandy (2012) JungHoon Shin and Da-Lin Zhang Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic.

Some Preliminary Modeling Results on the Upper-Level Outflow of Hurricane Sandy (2012) JungHoon Shin and Da-Lin Zhang Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic.
Vortex Rossby Waves in Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005) Falko Judt and Shuyi S. Chen Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University.

Vortex Rossby Waves in Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005) Falko Judt and Shuyi S. Chen Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University.
Electrified Simulations of Hurricane Rita (2005) with Comparisons to LASA Data Steve Guimond 1,2, Jon Reisner 2, Chris Jeffery 2 and Xuan-Min Shao 2 1.

Electrified Simulations of Hurricane Rita (2005) with Comparisons to LASA Data Steve Guimond 1,2, Jon Reisner 2, Chris Jeffery 2 and Xuan-Min Shao 2 1.
The Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Karl (2010): Insights from New Remote Sensing Measurements Collaborators: Anthony Didlake (NPP/GSFC),Gerry Heymsfield.

The Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Karl (2010): Insights from New Remote Sensing Measurements Collaborators: Anthony Didlake (NPP/GSFC),Gerry Heymsfield.
On the Multi-Intensity Changes of Hurricane Earl (2010) Daniel Nelson, Jung Hoon Shin, and Da-Lin Zhang Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University.

On the Multi-Intensity Changes of Hurricane Earl (2010) Daniel Nelson, Jung Hoon Shin, and Da-Lin Zhang Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University.
By: Michael Kevin Hernandez Key JTWC ET onset JTWC Post ET  Fig. 1: JTWC best track data on TC Sinlaku (2008). ECMWF analysis ET completion ECMWF analysis.

By: Michael Kevin Hernandez Key JTWC ET onset JTWC Post ET  Fig. 1: JTWC best track data on TC Sinlaku (2008). ECMWF analysis ET completion ECMWF analysis.
Remote Sensing and Modeling of Hurricane Intensification Steve Guimond and Jon Reisner Atmospheric Dynamics EES-2 FSU.

Remote Sensing and Modeling of Hurricane Intensification Steve Guimond and Jon Reisner Atmospheric Dynamics EES-2 FSU.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google