1. 8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU IMPACTS OF ISTANBUL EMISSIONS ON REGIONAL AIR QUALITY: QUANTIFICATION USING MODELS-3 FRAMEWORK AND TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS Huseyin Ozdemir a, Ulas Im b, Markakis Kostandinos c, Tugba Agacayak d, Alper Unal d, Tayfun Kindap d, Maudood Khan e a Bahcesehir University, Environmental Engineering Department, Istanbul, TURKEY b Bogazici University, Institute of Environmental Sciences, Istanbul, TURKEY c Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Physics, Thessaloniki, GREECE d Istanbul Technical University, Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul, TURKEY e Universities Space Research Association NASA Marshall Square Flight Center, Huntsville AL., USA

2. 8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU Outline  Introduction  Episode selection  Trajectory analysis  Emissions modeling  Air quality modeling results  Discussions and conclusions

3. 8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU Istanbul

4. 8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU Research Objectives  Identify the reasons for high PM levels in Istanbul  Quantify effect of Istanbul emissions on regional air quality  Method:  Comprehensive high resolution anthropogenic emission inventory  Models-3 modeling framework

5. 8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU Observations

6. 8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU Episode January 13-17, 2008

7. 8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU Trajectory Analysis Autumn Spring SummerWinter Forward trajectory method by Pettersen (1956)

8. 8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU Modeling Domain

9. 8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU Emission Inventory  92 x 57 km area with 2 km grid spacing  Temporal resolution on monthly, weekly and diurnal processing  Compiling the emission inventory (bottom-up methodology) -Residential and industrial combustion -Energy sector -Maritime sector -Solvents use and coal extraction emissions

10. 8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU Emission Inventory  High quality geographical information (GIS)  Mapbasic 9.0 programming language  Mapinfo 9.0 GIS software  39 chemical species

11. 8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU Schematic diagram of the emission processor (Kostandinos et al., 2009, submitted)

12. 8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU Chemistry and Transport Modeling  The US EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, version 4.6  Three domains (on lambert conformal projection) -Europe in a 163×150 grid system of 30 km res. -Balkan region in a 140×155 grids domain of 10 km res. - Istanbul in a 92×57 grids domain of 2 km res. - 20 vertical layers  The first three days - spin-up period

13. 8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU MODELING RESULTS

14. 8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU MODELING RESULTS MeasuresPM 10 Correlation0.62 Observed Mean (µg/m 3 )81.74 Model Mean / Obs. Mean0.55 Observed STDDEV (µg/m 3 )15.14 Model STDEV / Obs. STDEV1.25 BIAS (µg/m 3 )-47.73 ABSE (µg/m 3 )47.73 RMSE (µg/m 3 )49.77 IOA0.38

15. 8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU Obs. Mean (µg/m 3 ) Model Mean/Obs Mean BIAS (µg/m 3 ) ABSE (µg/m 3 ) RMSE (µg/m 3 ) Alibeyköy92.71.653.973.585.3 Beşiktaş105.50.5-49.453.162.9 Saraçhane88.51.436.480.196 Sarıyer95.20.6-36.136.144.7 Yenibosna126.10.7-38.460.887.1 Esenler202.20.7-64.765.689.3 Kartal116.80.4-67.867.873.9 Ümraniye92.70.3-62.862.865.7 Üsküdar103.20.7-34.744.654.8 MODELING RESULTS

16. 8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU Summary  The PM 10 levels calculated by the model underestimated the observations with an average of 30%.  Uncertainties between model results and observations  Lacking of temporal profiles  Meteorology may introduce large uncertainties  Static boundary conditions may introduce high uncertainties  Performance evaluation for meteorology model results are underway  For future work we are planning to improve emissions data

17. 8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU Thank you.