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Background Air Quality in the United States Under Current and Future Emissions Scenarios Zachariah Adelman, Meridith Fry, J. Jason West Department of Environmental.

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Presentation on theme: "Background Air Quality in the United States Under Current and Future Emissions Scenarios Zachariah Adelman, Meridith Fry, J. Jason West Department of Environmental."— Presentation transcript:

1 Background Air Quality in the United States Under Current and Future Emissions Scenarios Zachariah Adelman, Meridith Fry, J. Jason West Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering University of North Carolina Pat Dolwick, Carey Jang Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards United States Environmental Protection Agency Presented at the 10 th Annual CMAS Conference October 24-26, 2011 Chapel Hill, NC

2 10th Annual CMAS Conference 1 Chapel Hill, NC Motivation and Objectives Will U.S. background air pollutant concentrations increase in the future? Objectives: –Gather and process latest IPCC inventories for current and future year emissions estimates –Use MOZART-4 to simulate future air quality resulting from climate change mitigation emissions scenarios –Estimate background air quality in the U.S. by “zeroing-out” North American anthropogenic emissions –Downscale global modeling results to produce boundary conditions for regional modeling

3 Methods and Data Chemistry-Transport Model: MOZART-4 Meteorology: 2005 GEOS-5 1.9°x2.5° Emissions Inventory: 2005 and 2030 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) –RCP8.5 – Business as usual emissions –RCP4.5 – Best estimate emissions reduction –RCP2.6 – Maximum emissions reduction Zero-out North America (ZONA): –U.S., Canada, Mexico anthropogenic emissions set to zero Includes near-shore (< 50km) shipping, aircraft < 3km, and fertilizer 10th Annual CMAS Conference 2 Chapel Hill, NC

4 Methods and Data Emissions processing with custom IDL and NCL scripts –Speciate with RCP to MOZART-4 conversion factors –Temporalize with RETRO monthly profiles –Regrid to GEOS-5 grid –Merge natural and anthropogenic sectors and create MOZART-ready files 10th Annual CMAS Conference 3 Chapel Hill, NC Speciate Temporalize Regrid Merge

5 10th Annual CMAS Conference 4 Chapel Hill, NC RCP  MOZART-4 Species MOZARTRCP Species CH3OH0.5*alcohols C2H5OH0.5*alcohols CH2Oformaldehyde C2H6ethane C3H8propane BIGALKbutanes+pentanes+hexanes C2H4ethene C3H6propene BIGENEbutane+other_alkenes_and_ alkynes MOZARTRCP Species C2H2ethyne MEK0.5*ketones CH3COCH30.5*ketones HCOOH0.5*acids CH3COOH0.5*acids TOLUENEbenzene+toluene+xylene+ trimethyl_benzene+other_ aromatics C10H16terpenes ISOPisoprene OC1OC CB1BC

6 MOZART-4 Simulations Simulations using meteorology for 2005 July 1 – December 31, 2004 spin-up Fixed methane concentrations 10th Annual CMAS Conference 5 Chapel Hill, NC MOZARTCH4 (ppb) 2005 RCP8.51,783 2030 RCP8.52,132 2030 RCP4.51,830 2030 RCP2.61,600 2005 RCP8.5 ZONA1,783 2030 RCP8.5 ZONA2,132 2030 RCP4.5 ZONA1,830 2030 RCP2.6 ZONA1,600

7 Emissions Summaries 10th Annual CMAS Conference 6 Chapel Hill, NC NOx NMVOC Global US

8 Emissions Summaries 10th Annual CMAS Conference 7 Chapel Hill, NC BC OC Global US

9 Base Annual Max 8-hr O3 Results 10th Annual CMAS Conference 8 Chapel Hill, NC RCP 8.5 2005 RCP 8.5 2030 RCP 4.5 2030 RCP 2.6 2030

10 ZONA Annual Max 8-hr O3 Results 10th Annual CMAS Conference 9 Chapel Hill, NC RCP 8.5 2005 RCP 8.5 2030 RCP 4.5 2030 RCP 2.6 2030

11 10th Annual CMAS Conference 10 Chapel Hill, NC 8-hr O3 Results Annual Mean 8-hr O3Annual Max 8-hr O3 GlobalUSGlobalUS RCP8.5 2005 28.842.4178.1170.4 RCP8.5 2030 30.243.1166.1118.9 RCP4.5 2030 29.040.8142.4133.8 RCP2.6 2030 27.339.3156.1138.1 RCP8.5 2005 ZONA 26.930.1177.750.1 RCP8.5 2030 ZONA 28.031.6165.252.8 RCP4.5 2030 ZONA 27.430.9164.951.6 RCP2.6 2030 ZONA 25.529.1156.049.3

12 10th Annual CMAS Conference 11 Chapel Hill, NC Background U.S. mean 8-hr O3 AnnualWinterSpringSummerFall RCP8.5 2005 30.131.532.9 (5.4)26.5 (5.6)29.3 (4.8) RCP8.5 2030 31.633.334.4 (5.7)27.8 (6.0)30.8 (5.2) RCP4.5 2030 30.932.633.8 (5.6)27.1 (5.8)30.2 (5.1) RCP2.6 2030 29.131.031.6 (5.3)25.4 (5.4)28.2 (4.6) AnnualWinterSpringSummerFall RCP8.5 2005 71%89%71%58%70% RCP8.5 2030 73%85%74%63%72% RCP4.5 2030 76%83%77%68%75% RCP2.6 2030 74%83%75%65%73% Background contribution to U.S. mean 8-hr O3

13 U.S. Summer Daily Max 8-hr O3 Frequency Distribution 10th Annual CMAS Conference 12 Chapel Hill, NC

14 Base Annual Max 24-hr non-dust PM2.5* Results 10th Annual CMAS Conference 13 Chapel Hill, NC RCP 8.5 2005 RCP 8.5 2030 RCP 4.5 2030 RCP 2.6 2030 *(SO4, NO3, NH4, SOA, EC, and OC)

15 ZONA Annual Max 24-hr non-dust PM2.5 Results 10th Annual CMAS Conference 14 Chapel Hill, NC RCP 8.5 2005 RCP 8.5 2030 RCP 4.5 2030 RCP 2.6 2030

16 10th Annual CMAS Conference 15 Chapel Hill, NC PM2.5 Results Annual Mean 24-hr PM2.5Annual Max 24-hr PM2.5 GlobalUSGlobalUS RCP8.5 2005 1.22.7375.379.8 RCP8.5 2030 1.11.9320.057.2 RCP4.5 2030 1.11.8238.759.0 RCP2.6 2030 1.12.0453.366.0 RCP8.5 2005 ZONA 1.10.5375.325.7 RCP8.5 2030 ZONA 1.10.5319.925.9 RCP4.5 2030 ZONA 1.10.5319.825.9 RCP2.6 2030 ZONA 1.00.5453.328.2

17 10th Annual CMAS Conference 16 Chapel Hill, NC Speciated U.S. Annual Max PM2.5 SO4NO3NH4SOABCOCTotal RCP8.5 2005 8.421.925.90.24.818.779.88 RCP8.5 2030 6.514.016.60.21.218.757.24 RCP4.5 2030 2.816.817.40.24.117.758.98 RCP2.6 2030 5.014.818.80.25.222.065.95 RCP8.5 2005 ZONA 1.90.73.10.21.218.725.66 RCP8.5 2030 ZONA 2.00.73.10.21.218.725.87 RCP4.5 2030 ZONA 1.90.93.10.21.218.725.92 RCP2.6 2030 ZONA 1.90.73.10.21.420.928.18

18 CONUS36 CMAQ Annual Max 1-hr O3 BCs 10th Annual CMAS Conference 17 Chapel Hill, NC RCP8.5 2005 RCP8.5 2030 RCP4.5 2030 RCP2.6 2030 S N E W S N E W S N E W S N E W

19 CONUS36 CMAQ Annual Max 1-hr PM2.5 BCs 10th Annual CMAS Conference 18 Chapel Hill, NC RCP8.5 2030 RCP4.5 2030 RCP2.6 2030 S N E W S N E W S N E W

20 10th Annual CMAS Conference 19 Chapel Hill, NC Conclusions 1.These results indicate that only the emissions scenario that pursued extremely aggressive climate change mitigation (RCP2.6) lead to reductions in global O 3 burden and U.S. background O 3 and PM 2.5 concentrations. 2.Annual maximum U.S. 8-hr O 3 concentrations and frequency of high (> 70 ppb) 8-hr O 3 events are predicted to decrease in all simulated future emissions cases, likely due to domestic emission controls 3.Contribution of background to total U.S. O 3 concentrations predicted to increase in the future (~2- 5% to annual mean and up to 10% to summer mean): combination of rise in transported O 3 and drop in domestic O 3 production

21 Future Work Probe MOZART process-level output to gain a better understanding of the differences between the RCP results Run CMAQ with the downscaled 2005 and 2030 BCs and recalculate U.S. background concentrations 10th Annual CMAS Conference 20 Chapel Hill, NC

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