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Chicago TREND Chicago Community Trust May 26, 2015.

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Presentation on theme: "Chicago TREND Chicago Community Trust May 26, 2015."— Presentation transcript:

1 Chicago TREND Chicago Community Trust May 26, 2015

2 Origins

3 The TREND Concept: Using Retail “Plus” to Drive Neighborhood Development The Sweet Spot: Where Retail Accelerates Neighborhood Transformation RetailRetail Neighborhood Trajectories Current Neighborhood Status 3

4 RETAIL DEVELOPER AND BROKER ENGAGEMENT 1. Tom Bernier, Bucksbaum Retail Properties; 2. David Doig, CNI; 3. James Matanky, Matanky Realty Group; 4. Paul Stewart, Capri Capital; 5. Leon Walker, DL3 Realty; 6. Rich Warren and Randy Ross, Community Development Strategies; 7. Ken Gold, Skilken; 8. Michael Marchese, Harlem Irving Companies; 9. Edmund Woodbury, McCaffery Interests; 10. Richard Tucker, Tucker Development; 11. David Baum, Baum Realty; 12. Todd Cabanban, Cabanban, Rubin, & Mayberry; 13. Lauren Lowry, Finders Plus, 14. Mike Mallon, DKMallon Local Field Work Completed Developer Broker Meeting Held on May 12, 2014 Meetings with Representatives of LISC, MPC, WBC, DPD, Illinois Restaurant Association, Bronzeville Retail Initiative, Chatham Business Association, Cook County Land Bank, etc.

5 RETAIL DEVELOPER AND BROKER ENGAGEMENT 1.Big Boxes – Target, Walmart, Petco, Marshalls, Meijers 2.Specialty – Starbucks, Chipotle, Studio Movie Grill, Kumon, UPS Store 3.Restaurants – Panera Bread, Buffalo Wild Wings, Famous Daves, Macoroni Grill, Del Taco, Culvers, Moes Southwest Grill, Jimmy Johns, Bloomin Brands 4.Others – Save a Lot, Sears, Walgreens, CVS National Field Work Completed Attended ICSC Convention May, 2014 and 15 (met with 34 retailers and introduced Chicago TREND to the ICSC National Underserved Markets Initiative Committee)

6 Strategy

7 How Retail+ Can Lead: Getting to Strategic, Viable, Scale  Market Research, Analytics and Products  Leadership and Coordination; “Master Deal Broker”  Retailer Attraction Focused Financial Tools THE TREND TOOLBOX

8 Shopper Survey Completed  Survey firm (6,000 surveys)  The Chicago Rehab Network (1,200 surveys)  20 community/neighborhood organizations and community colleges (800 surveys)  50 local blogs  Traditional media outreach campaign  New survey to be conducted in 2015 8 Online Survey

9 Survey coverage – race distribution

10 Shopping destinations outside neighborhood

11 DNT taxonomy – updated  DNT taxonomy/typology reapplied to Chicago neighborhoods using updated 2010 data, to examine how neighborhoods changed from 2000-2010  23 input variables contributing to this classification: PeopleHousing & Land UseBusiness Median household income% single family detached# unique business types Income Diversity% vacant housing units # social capital (normalized by population) Age Structure (% 0-18, % 19- 34, % 35-64, % 65 plus) % owner occupied housing units % retail businesses with more than 20 employees % single parent households Median age of housing structures # retail establishments normalized by land area % foreign born% residential parcels # services normalized by land area % households moved in less than 5 years % industrial parcels # entertainment normalized by land area % households moved in over 10 years % vacant parcels

12 lower incomehigher income URBAN TAPESTRY Taxonomy Structure

13 DNT taxonomy – transition 2000-2010 13 Transition Matrix – Chicago, 2000 to 2010 Count in 2010 5871679717671429218 Types in 2010 Types in 2000 123456789 Count in 2000 123.0853.8515.380.007.690.00 13 21.1249.4430.340.0015.731.12 0.0089 30.7316.7977.370.001.460.003.650.00 137 40.002.260.7557.1436.090.75 2.260.00133 50.005.30 11.3661.360.766.069.090.76132 60.00 10.5326.325.2610.5347.370.0019 70.00 10.600.669.270.0078.810.000.66151 80.003.307.693.308.792.20 68.134.4091 90.00 3.850.0011.543.8515.3819.2346.1526 Truly Disadvantaged Transient Underdeveloped Stable Low Income Port of Entry Urban Tapestry Coming Attractions No Place Like Home Close, Cool and Commercial Fortune 100 Truly Disadvantaged Transient Underdvpd Stable Low Income Port of EntryUrban Tapestry Coming Attractions No Place Like Home Close, Cool, CommercialFortune 100

14 Services

15 Discussion Draft Services: Identifying Opportunity, Facilitating and Expediting Development Bring “Big Data” to Neighborhood Retail Development  Identify neighborhood trajectories, high-impact and market-viable retail Master Broker and Expediter  Nexus of information and networks, connecting developers, retailers, community organizations  Leverage synergies between retail opportunities and non-retail private and public investments (“Retail Plus”)  Work with City departments to expedite strategic deals Retail Coalition of the Willing  Organize and nurture retailers interested in locating in urban neighborhoods, similar to a trade organization  Develop and implement co-tenancy and clustering strategies to reduce risk 15

16 Trend Tool Concepts Tenant Attraction Program

17 Facilitating Retail Development Typical Retail Development Process in Chicago for Projects More Than 150,000 SF StepTypical Time RequiredCan Trend Help? Market Analysis1-3 MonthsYES Site(s) Identification, Due Diligence & Final Selection2-6 MonthsYES Preliminary Financial Feasibility Analysis & Financial1-2 MonthsYES Site Control2-10 MonthsYES Preliminary Design & Cost Estimates2-4 Months Secure Pre Development Financing2-4 MonthsYES Anchor Tenant Letters of Interest (40-50% SF)3-6 MonthsYES Approvals, Entitlement Process4-8 MonthsYES Securing Tenants Leases3-12 MonthsYES Design, Construction Bids1-3 Months Final Financial Feasibility Analysis1-2 Months Obtain Firm Financial Commitments2-3 MonthsYES Securing Permits2-6 MonthsYES Close on Property & Financing1-4 MonthsYES Construction and Construction Management12-18 Months Marketing, Final Leasing3-5 MonthsYES Opening: Total Time from Initial Market Assessment42-96 MonthsYES

18 Coalition of the Willing – The Big Guys  Anchor Attraction  Credit Tenants  25,000+ SF Trend Tool Concepts

19 Coalition of the Willing – Special Second Store Expansion  Well Run Local Favorites  Add Interest to Mix  Support Entrepreneurial Growth Trend Tool Concepts

20 Coalition of the Willing - Sit-down National Restaurant Franchises  Now Spending Leaves City  Operator Identification and Training  Liquidity and Net Worth Trend Tool Concepts

21 Coalition of the Willing - Alternative Tenants  Non-retail tenants to round out mix  Service Oriented Establishments Trend Tool Concepts

22 Gap Financing Program  Subordinate Loans for Retail Development  Flexible to Secure Key Retailer  Patient (20 year term) but Higher Return (5%)  $1M Maximum Per Project Trend Tool Concepts Provided to developers for pre- development costs, construction costs, tenant improvements. Could cover development of outlots or tenant improvements.

23 Tenant Attraction Program  $2M Recoverable Grant Program  Rent Subsidy to Attract Desired “Key” Tenants  Up to $500,000 per tenant lease over five year term The maximum annual rent subsidy will be based on a five year declining scale of $5-$4-$3-$2-$1. (For example – for a 5,000 sq. ft. retail space the incentive would be $25,000; $20,000; $15,000; $10,000; $5,000 for a total of $75,000)  Provided to developers or landlords to pass on to tenants to subsidize costs during first five years. Funds can be used for tenant improvements or to cover for low sales. Trend Tool Concepts

24 Neighborhood Retail Equity Fund  $50M Fund; $10M invested by Chicago TREND  Established Real Estate Equity Fund to be GP Partner; Chicago TREND to be LPs.  Initiate Projects with Refined Market Data and Predictive Analytics (Master Deal Broker)  Attract Developers and Retailers on the Leading Edge  Higher Risk and Higher Equity Return Trend Tool Concepts

25 Neighborhood Retail Bank Debt Program  $10M Loan Program for Small Retailer Expansion or Improvement (working capital, tenant fit out, equipment;)  Consortium Banks to invest $8M; $2M invested by Chicago TREND (25% subordinate loan participation)  $250,000 maximum loan amount Trend Tool Concepts

26 Implementation Plan and Goals

27 Discussion Draft Milestones By end of Year 1: Organizational milestones: ●Steering committee organized and meeting ●Fiscal agent and host agent selected and operational ●Investment and operating policies developed and approved ●Staff positions filled ●Contracts and operating procedures finalized with service providers ●Phase I financial tools operational 27

28 Discussion Draft Milestones By end of Year 1: Development milestones: ●8,500 additional Shopper Choice survey responses received and the results incorporated into models and analytic tools ●Complete estimation of shopper and neighborhood choice models and simulation tools to predict impact of investments on shopper choices, neighborhood attributes, and neighborhood trajectory ●Retail Coalition of the Willing operational, albeit informally ●Recommendations delivered to at least two developers about types of retailers to solicit to lease uncommitted space and achieve desired community change ●Provide data and offers of financial assistance that leads to new leases at developments currently underway or infill in priority commercial corridors 28

29 Discussion Draft Milestones By end of Year 2: Organizational milestones: ●Partners identified for Phase II financing tools and formalized by memoranda of agreement ●Strategy, services and priorities re-assessed and recommendations prepared for funders ●Phase II funding secured 29

30 Discussion Draft Milestones By end of Year 2: Development milestones ●Predictive model developed and tested ●Retail Coalition of the Willing formalized and functioning ●Commit or fund approximately $5 million in financing to impact three strategic neighborhood retail developments and directly secure an estimated 13 key retail tenant leases ●Working with City of Chicago and Cook County officials for expediting approvals, licenses, land assembly, etc. 30

31 Organization Structure and Governance

32 Founding Entrepreneur: Lyneir Richardson  Executive Director, Center for Urban Entrepreneurship and Economic Development, Rutgers Business School, Newark, NJ (current)  Chief Executive Officer, Brick City Development Corporation, Newark, NJ (2009-2014)  Vice President-Urban Development, General Growth Properties, Inc., Chicago, IL (2004-2009)  Founder, Lakeshore Development & Construction Company, Chicago, IL (1995-2004)  Vice President, Thrush Construction, Inc., Chicago, IL (1993-1995)  Attorney, First National Bank of Chicago, Chicago, IL (1990-1993)  Entrepreneurial projects include consulting and commercial real estate advisory services for property owners 32

33 Discussion Draft Organizational Structure Steering Committee of 15-20 members representing retailers, developers, brokers, CBOs, investors and banking partners, city, data partners, civic and trade organizations. 33 Steering Committee Executive Director Financial or Banking Data Legal Financial Analyst Data Analyst Admin Assistant Fiscal Sponsor/Agent PartnersStaff Lead Partners: ICSC, Neilsen, LISC, ULI, CCLF,, Econsult, RES, ….

34 Organization and Ecosystem Accelerating Desired Neighborhood Transformation Steering Committee (Investors) Retail and Mixed-Used Developers Retailers (Coalition of the Willing) Retail Brokers CHICAGO TREND (4 people) Data and Financial Tools CHICAGO TREND (4 people) Data and Financial Tools Civic and Community Organizations Public Sector Banks Core Staffing; Distributed Product Delivery; Fiscal Agent

35 Discussion Draft Next Steps / How You Can Help  Identify pilot projects with goal of making first investments in approximately six months  Identify and help secure key retailer engagement (e.g. Walgreens, Chipotle, Starbucks, FedxOffice, Target, TGI Fridays)  Identify potential members and help establish Steering Committee -- senior leadership with credibility, relevant expertise, key partners  Seek lead operating partners to administer financial products in first and second phase  Engage bank, additional foundation, retailer, other investors: secure PRI loan and fund operating grant 35

36 Chicago TREND Chicago Community Trust May 26, 2015


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