1. UNESCO Desire – Net project E-learning course Energy and sustainable development: The global energy framework Giovanna Anselmi Enea – UDA Advisor ganselmi@sede.enea.itUNESCO Rome, 2006 19 th June

2. OUTLINE Energy Needs of world population Energy Demand & Supply Fossil Fuels & RES Share Main Problems

3. 2050: 10 Billion people in the world Energy Needs (Total Fuel Consumption)  2002: 7000 Mtoe/year = 9.3 TW  2050: > 15000Mtoe/year = > 20 TW  Electricity 2002: 1.8 TW, of wich 0.3 nuclear  Transport 2002: 2.5 TW (Nuclear 2050 10 TW: one reactor every second day) Energy Needs of world population

4. The global energy framework The global energy frameworkDemand - Global energy needs are likely to continue to grow for at least the next two - and - half decades, absent new policies two - and - half decades, absent new policies - The world’s energy needs would be more than 50% higher in 2030 than today today - Over 60% of the increase would be in the form of oil and gas - RES share is growing about 1,8 per year since 1990 -These global trends would raise several serious concerns:  The energy resources are far from evenly distributed geografically  The energy resources are far from evenly distributed geografically  Almost all the increase in en. prod. will occur in non-OECD countries  Almost all the increase in en. prod. will occur in non-OECD countries  Energy export to OECD countries will increase substantially  Energy export to OECD countries will increase substantially

5. The global energy framework The global energy framework Primary Energy Supply - World Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) in 2003 was 10 579 Mtoe, of wich: wich:  13.3% (1404 Mtoe) from RES  34.4% from oil  24.4% from coal  21.2% was the share of natural gas  6.5% the share of nuclear energy

9. ASIA exclude China

11. The global energy framework Trends in Energy Consumption by end use sector Graph 1: Residential Sector Energy Consumption By Region 2002 - 2025

12. The global energy framework Trends in Energy Consumption by end use sector Graph 2: Commercial Sector Energy Consumption By Region 2002 - 2025

13. The global energy framework Trends in Energy Consumption by end use sector Graph 3 : Industrial Sector Energy Consumption By Region 2002 - 2025

14. The global energy framework Trends in Energy Consumption by end use sector Graph 4: Transportation Sect. Energy Consumption By Region 2002-2025

15. The global energy framework Trends in Energy Consumption

17. Energy Consuption Trends going up, what kind of Problems and Solutions are foreseeable?

18. MAIN PROBLEMS  Increasing energy demand  Limited reserves of Energy  Volatility of OIL Price  Vulnerability to supply shocks  Pollution emission  Availability of RES Technologies at low costs

19. Increasing energy demand Increasing energy demand requests more and more availability of resources: without them there is a limit for a sustainable development : it means investments for new sources exploitation it means investments for new sources exploitationand funding for new technologies to push the RES development and diffusion funding for new technologies to push the RES development and diffusion funding to improve energy efficiency and energy saving funding to improve energy efficiency and energy saving funding to decrease pollution emission funding to decrease pollution emission

20. Limited reserves of Energy Natural gas suffer * of supply shocks too. Coal of pollution Nuclear is expected **to be ready for a safe use in many decades Hydro sources *** Hydro sources *** are about completely exploited RES are expected **** RES are expected **** to play a limited role Proven oil reserves are sufficent to meet world demand at current level for 40 years, but unforeseable demand growth and foreseable supply shocks suggest to build up new storages: It remain very expensive both for developed and emerging countries Leading Countries for Proven oil reserves

21. Volatility of OIL Price  Unforeseeable peaks of demand  Allmost null spare production capacity  Geopolitical crises  New Investments for new sources exploitation and lift

22. Vulnerability to supply shocks   Inter-regional oil and gas trade is vulnerable to interruption and the threat must be assessed and evaluated   Most of the oil and gas exported by Middle Eastern countries flows through just three channels, all of which are susceptible to sudden closure as a result of accidents, piracy, terrorist attacks or war

23. Pollution emission World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel Type, 1970-2025

24. Availability of RES Technologies 1.Cooperation with EU in developing the energy technology assessment to choose the best RES Technology in relation to the country’s geo-economic and environmental conditions. 2.Development of an istitutional environment to deepening scientific, industrial and commercial relations with countries owners of the approppriate RES technologies in order to:  a technology transfer  a know how transfer  a development of a permanent technological & commercial cooperation 3. Development of in loco manifactures to produce the tecnologies usefull for RES exploitation RES exploitation 4. Development of a network for commercialization of RES technologies 5. Establishing institutional and environmental high level of FDI attractivity with:  incentives for Investors  low level of taxation for import/exports  availability for traning of work force  availability of infrastructures (for transports, education, health etc…)

25. Possible Solutions - Diversify the energy mix - Improve the efficiency in energy use through technological change and research and research - Establish Favourable Inner Institutional and Economic Environment for Investors Investors - Deepen External Relations - Build up RES network between homogeneous regions to reduce the production costs production costs -Cooperate at different levels ( -Cooperate at different levels (technological know how transfer; technological ) with Countries owners of RES Technologies assistence; etc.. ) with Countries owners of RES Technologies

26. CONCLUSION From economic data emerge a strong incentive : To technological change and innovationTo technological change and innovation To a wide cooperation among people and countriesTo a wide cooperation among people and countries To a better and more efficient use of the energy sourcesTo a better and more efficient use of the energy sources From the energy data the recommendations are: From the energy data the recommendations are: Decrease the oil dependenceDecrease the oil dependence Diversify the energy mixDiversify the energy mix Increase the RES use and improve the related technologiesIncrease the RES use and improve the related technologies

27. ADDITIONAL DATA WEO 2005. Volume of Oil Stocks Needed to Ensure 90 Days of Net Imports in OECD Regions in the Reference Scenario