1. Drought Management CRIDA Y.S. Ramakrishna
Director
Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture Santosh Nagar, Hyderabad –

2. Probability of drought occurrence

3. Probability of occurrence of severe droughts

4. Impacts of drought Environmental Societal Social Economic
Moisture stress
Drinking water shortage
Degradation of resources
Increased pollution
(both air and water)
Malnutrition
Ill-health
Migration
Debts
Economic
Fall in Ag. Production
Reduced income
Loss of livestock
Fall in output
Unemployment
Shortage of essential goods

5. METHODOLOGIES
FOR
ASSESSMENT

6. Aridity Anomaly Index (AI)
Methodologies
Aridity Anomaly Index (AI)
This index is calculated on the basis of Thornthwait’s water balance.
This is the ratio of water deficit (PET-AET) to water need (PET).
The departure of the index from the normal expressed as percentage of the normal is called Aridity Anomaly index.

7. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
Methodologies
Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
This index is based on a two layer water balance model.
He introduced the concept of CAFEC (Climatically Appropriate For Existing Conditions) precipitation which is a normal value for the established human activities of the place.
The anomaly between actual and CAFEC rainfall is used as a drought indicator.
To make this anomaly comparable is space and time, it is multiplied by a weighting factor K which depends on average moisture demand and supply and mean of the absolute values of the anomaly of the place.
He devised a scale which ranged from –4 to +4 on the basis of which droughts were classified.

8. Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI)
Methodologies
Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI)
This index is based on crop specific soil water balance model.
Soil moisture deficit ratio is calculated for a given period based on long term mean soil moisture, maximum and minimum available soil water.
SMDI is calculated following Palmer’s (1965) procedure.
This index can be classified into specific ranges as in the case of PDSI.

9. Standard Precipitation Index (SPI)
Methodologies
Standard Precipitation Index (SPI)
Two parameter incomplete gamma distribution is fitted to the long term rainfall data to normalize the series.
The cumulative probabilities are then transformed into standardized normal variables with mean of zero and standard deviation of one using inverse normal distribution, so the values of the SPI are in standard deviations.
Positive values indicate greater than median precipitation and negative values indicate less than median precipitation.
Being independent of the magnitude of mean rainfall, it is comparable over a range of climatic zones.

10. Comparison of different indices
Methodologies
Comparison of different indices
Index
Input requirements
Remarks
PDSI
Weekly / monthly rainfall &PET, AWC
Requires long series of data AI
Weekly / monthly rainfall & PET, AWC
SMDI
Daily rainfall and PET crop coefficients, AWC
SPI
Weekly / monthly rainfall (can be calculated for multiple time scales)

11. Other drought indices R index R/PE less than 0.40 Z index (R-Rca).w
WRSI (FAO) WD/ TWR *100
SDD Tc-Ta
NDVI (IR-R)/(IR+R)

12. Types of Agricultural Droughts
Early season: Delayed onset, prolonged
dry spells after onset
Mid-season: Inadequate soil moisture
between two rain events
Late season: Early cessation of rains
or insufficient rains

13. Agricultural drought classification AE/PE (%) in Phenophase
Drought intensity
Code
S V R
76 – 100
Nil S0 V0 R0
51 – 75
Mild S1 V1 R1
26 – 50
Moderate S2 V2 R2
25 or less
Severe S3 V3 R3
S = Seedling; V = Vegetative; R = Reproductive
S1V3R2 = A2 (moderate)
S0V1R1 = A1 (mild)
Source: Ramanarao et al, 1981

14. A Case Study from Andhra Pradesh: Approach
Drought Management
A Case Study from Andhra Pradesh: Approach

15. Criteria for identification of drought affected areas
Methodologies
Criteria for identification of drought affected areas
Various states have been following different norms for the declaration of drought.
For example:
In A.P. following criteria has been used
Deficiency of rainfall
Deficiency of rainfall of 25% and above in Mandals where the annual rainfall is more than 1000 mm.
20% and above, where the annual rainfall is 750 mm – 1000 mm.
15% and above where the annual rainfall is less than 750 mm.

16. Any two of the remaining norms
Methodologies
Any two of the remaining norms
Compression / reduction in the cropped area of 50% and above under all principal crops.
Normal reduction in crop yields of 50% and above in comparison with average yields of preceding 5 years.
Dry spell and its impact on crops.

17. 2. Coefficient of variation of rainfall
 Parameters considered for prioritization of mandals for taking of drought mitigation activity
1.     Average Rainfall
2.     Coefficient of variation of rainfall
3.     Meteorological drought frequency
4.     Hydrological drought frequency
5.     Agricultural drought frequency
6.     Ground Water Status
7.     Feed and Fodder availability
8.     Percent Irrigated Area (Kharif)
9.     Percent Irrigated Area (Rabi)
10. Rural Water Supply (percent habitations fully covered)
11. Drought Severity (agriculture)
Note: 1. The developmental / relief measures should be given preference as for the priority. The Priority I mandals should get maximum
preference and Priority IV the least.
2. The ranks given to the individual parameters are flexible and the user has the option to change the ranks by using the Ranking
Software.
3. Most of the mandals fall under Priority II and Priority III categories

21. intensified

25. Deviation in vegetation index (NDVI)

26. FOREWARNING

27. Forewarning Software INPUT OUTPUT 1. Rainfall
INPUT
1.    Rainfall
2.  Pan evaporation (mm) maximum and minimum temperature (if pan
evaporation is not available i.e. for calculation of potential
evapotranspiration)
3.    Crop coefficient
4.    Yield response factor
5.    Available water holding capacity (AWC) of the soil
6.    Latitude and longitude of the mandal (if pan evaporation is not available)
7.    Maximum yield of crop
8.    Duration of the crop
OUTPUT
1.      Soil moisture
2.      Runoff
3.      Deep drainage
4.      Moisture adequacy index
5.      Water requirement satisfaction index
6.      Yield compared to normal
7.      Drought signals 

29. Drought Signal If MAI on any day is less than 0.75 it gives ALARM
If number of days with MAI < 0.75 is 10 ↓
Gives signal 1 i.e. mild drought signal
If number of days with MAI < 0.75 is 20
If number of days with MAI <0.5. is 10
Gives signal 2 i.e. moderate drought
If number of days with MAI <0.75 is 30
If number of days with MAI < 0.50 is 20
If number of days with MAI 0.25 is 10
Gives signal 3 i.e. severe drought

31. CROP STRATEGY

32. MITIGATION

33. BLACK GRAM

34. .

35. ALTERNATE LAND USE MODEL : DSS

36. Drought Mitigation Strategies
Policy support at national and state level
Developmental funding to rural development and special assistance during natural calamities
Input supply, access to credit and marketing and price support
Farm advisory services
Non-Government Agencies like:
NGO, CBO, SHG, Philanthropic bodies and aid agencies
Major focus:
Education, building of awareness creation and community institutions and leadership
Supplementing the Government effort in rural development

37. Short-term/Immediate measures
Execution of labour-oriented schemes for employment generation and implementation of relief and development works – National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) programme
Good weather code – encashing production from good rainfall regions and managing low rainfall regions through transport of food grains from high production areas
Establishment of Fodder/Seed/Grain banks
Establishment of Cattle camps near water points

38. Long-term measures
Long-range forecasting of rains (2-4 months in advance)
Regional analysis of rainfall patterns
Crop weather watch programs
Value-added Agro-Advisories
Integrated watershed development
Land use diversification
Water harvesting
In-situ moisture conservation

40. RISK TRANSFER

41. Risk Management and Crop Insurance
Government sponsored National Agricultural Insurance Scheme (NAIS) in operation since Rabi
Farm Income Insurance Scheme (FIIS) implemented on pilot basis in Rabi and Kharif Discontinued w.e.f. rabi
Insurance linked to crop loan
Varsha Bima Yojana (Rainfall Insurance) being implemented by some insurance companies like ICICI- Lombard, IFFCO-Tokio, AIC on Pilot basis.

42. Weather-based Insurance
No state is immune to natural calamities
12 million hectares of land damaged every year by natural calamities
Agricultural Insurance is an important risk management tool
Agricultural Insurance Company of India Ltd. (AIC) formed on January 1, 2006

43. Weather Index Insurance
Constraints:
High spatial and temporal viability in rainfall
Wide variation from village to village
Recording of rainfall at mandal level which is not representative
Mandals or group of mandals are considered as unit
Lack of transparency in recording and exchange of data

44. Weather Index Insurance - Rainfall
Advantages:
Indemnity based on rainfall not on an individual
Applicable to several crops
Speedy settlement and transparency
Weather indices could be deficit or excessive rainfall
Disadvantage:
Recurring droughts would make it more expensive

45. Looking Ahead
Scaling up to states most vulnerable to drought namely Rajasthan, Karnataka, AP and Maharashtra
Inclusion of more partners and consortium approach
Consortium partners could be: CRIDA, CAZRI, SAUs
IIT-Bombay
NRSA, CGWB
State Remote Sensing Centers
Proposed source of funding to be:
NIDM

46. Thank You