1. MED-Impact Decision-support instrument to promote renewable energy investments in the Mediterranean www.med-impact.com

2. MED-ImpactPage 2 Project’s background Institutional background Funded by the FGEF (French Global Environmental Facility) Support from AFD, French DG-Treasury and French DG-Energy & Climate Implemented by ADETEF – Assistance Technique France Context French contribution to the Mediterranean Solar Plan (MSP) Project’s vision Development of the MED-IMPACT tool: a generic comparative methodology for MED countries to evaluate the costs and benefits between renewable energies and conventional energies

3. MED-ImpactPage 3 Objectives and approach A decision-making tool for public and private decision makers Objectives: Highlight externalities (costs and benefits) induced by the development of RE on: -the power system (production & transmission) -macro- and socio-economic parameters -financial leverages allowing a better competitiveness of RE projects Approach: Bottom-up approach: « Portfolio of RE projects by 2020 » as main input Taking into account 4 technologies : Wind, PV, CSP and CPV Developed for 4 countries : Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan Location of Projects’ sites on a map

4. MED-ImpactPage 4 3 Work packages Work package 1 - Impacts of RE integration on the power system Work package 2 - Impacts of RE on socio- and macro-economic parameters Work package 3 - Financial structuring + integration of RE externalities

5. MED-ImpactPage 5 WP 1 - impacts on the power system Production system  Evaluate the substitution of conventional capacity units by RE  Impact on production capacity  Impact on fuel consumption (base units and back-up/peak units) Transportation system  Evaluate the connection costs for RE and conventional units  Estimated costs of grid reinforcement according to the RE integration rate

6. MED-ImpactPage 6 WP 2 - Macro and socio impacts Impacts on Hydrocarbon trade balance Evaluate the value created : -by an increase of hydrocarbon trade balance -by a better hedging on oil price uncertainty Socio economic impacts & taxes Socio economic impacts & taxes :  Employment & Job creation Value chain analysis by technologies  Value Added & GDP  Impact of equipments imports on the trade balance and fiscal revenues

7. MED-ImpactPage 7 WP 3 - Financial structure of RE projects financial leverages Impacts of financial leverages on economic and financial indicators for each RE projects  Analysis of RE project financing (debt/equity, ROE, etc.)  Define the Power Purchase Agreement (Local-PPA) Business Plan based on : -Income statement -Cash flow statement

8. MED-ImpactPage 8 The 5 strong points of the tool Meets the expectations of the MED-countries Easy to use (Excel 2007) Understandable by all type of users Database (easy to configure) Default value Limited number of parameters in 1st use Possibility of a « fine setting » 1 tool = « 3 models » 1 2 3 4 5

9. MED-ImpactPage 9 1 model = « 3 tools » Detailed view of impacts related to a specific RE project, allowing projects’ developers to better defined their bidding documents: Beneficiaries : Administrations, state companies & agencies in charge of RE development, investors, etc. MED-Impact Global overview of externalities of a national RE policy, to improve decision making process: Beneficiaries : Administrations / Governments 1 3 Detailed view of impacts of a national RE policy, on (i) power system, (ii) socioeconomic, or (iii) financial issues: Beneficiaries : Ministries of energy, ministries of finances, environmental agencies, electricity utilities, etc.. 2

10. MED-ImpactPage 10 Thank you for your attention Visit our website : www.med-impact.com Contact: Charles Hullot – Project manager charles.hullot@adetef.finances.gouv.fr contact.med-impact@adetef.finances.gouv.fr

11. MED-ImpactPage 11 Back-up

12. MED-ImpactPage 12 Outputs – the case of Egypt R S S Simulated scenario R OME reference scenario – no evolution from 2010 onwards 8,2 In 2020, MED- Impact quantifies the effect coming from the introduction of 8.2 GW of additional renewable capacities Comparison between two scenarios for EGYPT [GW, 20012-2020]:

13. MED-ImpactPage 13 Outputs – the case of Egypt Impact of the integration rate on the back-up needs For the same capacity and generated energy, the back-up needs increase with the integration rate

14. MED-ImpactPage 14 Outputs – the case of Egypt Simulated scenario 2020 OME Reference Scenario Mtoe Comparison of Hydrocarbon exports depending on OME Scenario (Mtoe, 2008-2020) TOTALValue of the uncertainty on hydrocarbons prices 71 5 Hydrocarbons impact on the balance of trade 58517 Value in EURm Evaluation of “hydrocarbons” externalities in 2020 (EUR/MWh) +45%

15. MED-ImpactPage 15 Outputs – the case of Egypt