1. TRANSPORT RESEARCH CENTER UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID COST 355 - WATCH "Changing behaviour towards a more sustainable transport system" 355 “FREIGHT TRANSPORT ENERGY USE AND EMISSION TRENDS IN SPAIN Pedro José Pérez-Martínez

2. CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN DEL TRANSPORTE - ETSI CAMINOS, CANALES Y PUERTOS UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID GHG: Spain's freight transportation 8.9% (total) and 35% (transportation sector) Spain trading country 56% GDP exports and imports Shift towards processed and manufactured products Reviews energy use and emission trends 1990-2012 Decomposition analyses and scenarios techniques Factors and measures decrease energy use and emissions INTRODUCTION

3. CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN DEL TRANSPORTE - ETSI CAMINOS, CANALES Y PUERTOS UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID Energy use by transport mode (J) Freight activity (t, tkm, vkm) Energy consumption by fuel/energy type (J) CO 2 emissions by transport mode (ktCO 2 eq.) Economy (GDP 1995 M€) and demography (popullation) MATERIAL AND METHODS National transport, energy and environment statistics, E f energy mode j and fuel f, E t total energy and, w 1 and w 2 weightings, A i,j activity, I i,j intensity and S i,j share

4. CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN DEL TRANSPORTE - ETSI CAMINOS, CANALES Y PUERTOS UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID Decomposition analyses (Schipper et al. 1997 and Steenhof et al. 2006) MATERIAL AND METHODS, C i,j emissions and F i,f carbon rate fuel, ∆C 0,i emiss. change activity, ∆C 0,i emissions change share, ∆C 0,i emissions change intensity, ∆C 0,i residual term

5. CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN DEL TRANSPORTE - ETSI CAMINOS, CANALES Y PUERTOS UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID Freight transport demand and GDP in Spain Source: Pérez-Martínez and Monzón de Cáceres (2006).

6. CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN DEL TRANSPORTE - ETSI CAMINOS, CANALES Y PUERTOS UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID Transportation services 6,5% GDP (2004), increasing share manuf. prod. Manufactured products (2004): 31,9% (tkm), 12,3% (t), 10,6% (operations) Trends freight transport follow economy Share of freight (2004): road (84%), marine (10%), rail (3%) Energy freight transport (2004): 546 PJ (63% diesel, 56% increment 1990) Energy transport (2004): 26,8% primary energy, 21% freight (8,9% p.e. ) THE SPANISH FREIGHT SECTOR

7. CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN DEL TRANSPORTE - ETSI CAMINOS, CANALES Y PUERTOS UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID Activity, intensity and emissions of freight transport in Spain (1990-2004) Source: Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, Inventario Nacional de Emisiones (2006), Ministerio de Fomento, Informe Anual Transporte y Servicios Postales (2006) and self preparation Road improved efficiency not significantly Efficiency gains resulted increasing size ships Change activity explained change emissions Road hegemony, rail decline Increased trade man. goods “Just in time deliveries”

8. CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN DEL TRANSPORTE - ETSI CAMINOS, CANALES Y PUERTOS UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID Results of decomposition of freight carbon emissions, 1990-2004 Emissions increased 56% (2004), explanatory factor change activity (9% more emissions), improvement fuel efficiency slightly curtailed rise emissions

9. CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN DEL TRANSPORTE - ETSI CAMINOS, CANALES Y PUERTOS UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID Business as usual (BAU): trends activity, energy intensity, fuel and modal shares continue to 2012 – Energy intensities fall Development Spanish Freight Railway (DSFR): increases share railway (18%, 2012) and improved energy efficiency Road Efficiency and Biodiesel (REB): efficiency gains diesel engines (30%) and penetration biodiesel engines (10% road energy) Scenarios same estimates future transport levels (27% increment 2004-2012), different mode shares and vehicle technology levels SCENARIOS FOR 2012

10. CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN DEL TRANSPORTE - ETSI CAMINOS, CANALES Y PUERTOS UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the freight sector 1990, 2004 and in the scenarios for 2012* BAU emissions over 47 MtCO 2 eq. (∆26% 2004, ∆96% 1990) DSFR (∆10% 2004, -6 MtCO 2 eq./year BAU), road (∆10%), rail (∆429% ) REB (∆-6,5% 2004, -61 MtCO 2 eq. BAU 2008-2012), road (∆-8,3%), rail (∆-4,6%), marine (∆-4,9%), pipe (∆103%), air (∆35%) 27,9 MtCO 2 eq. (∆15% 1990, 2008-2012) emissions lower REB no increase activity 43,1 MtCO 2 eq. (-4,5 Mt BAU, 2012) *Possibilities using bigger or high performance vehicles not examined in scenarios

11. CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN DEL TRANSPORTE - ETSI CAMINOS, CANALES Y PUERTOS UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID Energy and fuel costs* impacts under freight sector scenarios, road only (2012) Note: fuel prices constant at 2004 levels: diesel 0,75 €/l, gasoline 0,89 €/l, biodiesel 0,82 €/l; 1 MJ is equal to the energy content of: 0,025 liters of diesel, 0,028 liters of gasoline and 0,029 liters of biodiesel at lower heating value; Information is based on Ministerio de Industria, Turismo y Comercio (2004) and Johansson (1995) *Annual net savings from BAU, include exclusively fuel cost REB savings 158 PJ/year (7,9% energy used transport Spain) DSFR savings 112 PJ/year, 2310 M€/year (-29% and -25% REB)

12. CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN DEL TRANSPORTE - ETSI CAMINOS, CANALES Y PUERTOS UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID CO 2 emissions per GDP by major end use in Spain, 1990-2004 Source: Pérez-Martínez (2005) Note: CO 2 emissions of different economic sectors includes all the SNAP groups. Industry includes groups 1, 3, 4, 5 and 6. Transport includes groups 7 and 8. Agriculture and environment includes groups 10 and 11. Others includes groups 2 and 9. GDP related increasing activity, emissions transport (tCO 2 eq. per GDP), ∆15% 1990-2004, Agriculture and environment, -∆19% Industry, ∆2% Waste treatment, disposal and non industrial plants, ∆13%

13. CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN DEL TRANSPORTE - ETSI CAMINOS, CANALES Y PUERTOS UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID Road freight energy consumption and fuel price in Spain, 1990-2004. Diesel (78%) and gasoline prices (22%) weighted by consumption. Source: Pérez-Martínez (2006) Note: In Spain, gasoline is only important to fueling a share of light duty vehicles. Heavy duty vehicles use mostly diesel. Weak inverse relation fuel price and energy Low diesel price relative gasoline Weight regulations/Tolls/Wages/ affect operating costs more than fuel (is only one factor)

14. CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN DEL TRANSPORTE - ETSI CAMINOS, CANALES Y PUERTOS UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID GDP related increasing activity despite decrease energy intensity Fuel price slightly affected changes road freight activity and energy consumption – weak inverse relation fuel price and intensity Carbon emissions restrained: reducing activity, changing modal share, improving utilization and technology (propulsion, fuel mix); activity accounts 10% total costs and 15% total energy Trend towards road on expenses of rail due to inherent differences: geography, distance and transport policies; fuel changes could influence share towards lower energy costs and higher efficiencies Energy efficiency influenced by: technology, optimization strategies and policy measures; increment intermodal combinations could increase load factors and decrease energy intensities Reduce carbon emissions through switching to fuels with lower carbon emissions per unit of energy; use of alternative fuels constrained by high prices DISCUSSION

15. CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN DEL TRANSPORTE - ETSI CAMINOS, CANALES Y PUERTOS UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID Freight transport energy use and corresponding CO 2 emissions increased faster than other sectors in Spain (56%, 41% above Kyoto Protocol) Analysis of growth trends: increased activity, maintenance modal shares, little changes fuel efficiency, continual changes energy use and CO 2 emissions Scenarios asset: CO 2 emissions reduced by 6,5% by 2012 (REB) if road diesel vehicles experiment 30% increase in efficiency; road fuel 158 PJ and cost savings 3099 M€ Freight growth coupled with economical growth; share of manufactured products increased together with distances travelled and environmental problems CONCLUSIONS

16. CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN DEL TRANSPORTE - ETSI CAMINOS, CANALES Y PUERTOS UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID THANKS ! Pedro José Pérez-Martínez Transport Research Center – TRANSyT, UPM E-mail: pjperez@caminos.upm.es Homepage: http://www.transyt.upm.eshttp://www.transyt.upm.es