1. ESCUELA TÉCNICA SUPERIOR DE INGENIEROS INDUSTRIALES UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID DEPARTAMENTO DE INGENIERIA QUÍMICA INDUSTRIAL Y DEL MEDIO AMBIENTE SPAIN’S EMISSION PROJECTIONS (SEP) PROJECT WORK UNDER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE SPAIN’S ENVIRONMENT MINISTRY AND THE TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF MADRID Thessaloniki, 30th October 2006 MINISTERIO DE MEDIO AMBIENTE. DIRECCIÓN GENERAL DE CALIDAD Y EVALUACIÓN AMBIENTAL Dr. Julio Lumbreras jlumbreras@etsii.upm.es

2. 30th October 2006.2TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. 1.1. Aim of the project 1.2. Activities 1.3 Pollutants 1.4. Projection methodology 1.5. EmiPro 1.6. Update system 2.1. Ex-post evaluation 2.2. RAINS comparison 2.3. National Emission Ceilings achievement 3. CONCLUSIONS OUTLINE 1 - METHODOLOGY 2 - RESULTS

3. 30th October 2006.3TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. To develop a consistent methodology to evaluate Spain’s Emission Projections To obtain the emission projections for the period 2001 – 2020 Objectives Critical aspects - A tool for decision making process - Projection Vs. Prediction - Activity projection vs. sectoral prospective - Integration of sectoral studies and activity projections - Full consistency with the National Atmospheric Emission Inventory (NEI) - Basis for national AQ modelling 1.1.- The aim of the project

4. 30th October 2006.4TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. Every activity under NEI using SNAP-97 nomenclature 1.2.- Activities SNAPDescriptionNumber of SL3 1Combustion in energy and transformation industries17 2Non-industrial combustion plants6 3Combustion in manufacturing industry30 4Production processes62 5 Extraction and distribution of fossil fuels and geothermal energy 14 6Solvent and other product use42 7Road transport15 8Other mobile sources and machinery10 9Waste treatment and disposal14 10Agriculture37 11Other sources and sinks44 TOTAL291

5. 30th October 2006.5TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. Geneva Convention 1.3.- Pollutants Sulphur oxides (SO 2 +SO 3 ), measured as mass of SO 2 Nitrogen oxides (NO+NO 2 ), measured as mass of NO 2 Ammonia (NH 3 ) Volatile organic compounds (except methane) (NMVOC) Carbon monoxide (CO) Particulate Matter (as TSP, PM 10 and PM 2,5 ) Heavy metals: lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd) and mercury (Hg) Kyoto Protocol Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Methane (CH 4 ) Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Sulphur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) As mass of each individual compound In CO 2 equivalent weighted according to its global warming potential

6. 30th October 2006.6TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. 1.4.- Methodology - The projections are developed under EEA and US EPA framework -The usual projection level is national (SNAP activity) and in annual basis. -Projections are specifically calculated for each pollutant included in the activities considered. -Projections are associated to scenarios: Starting considerations: - Technological - Socioeconomic - Statistical - Legislative Hypothesis: - Activity rates - Emission factors - Emission trends = SCENARIO -Macroeconomic variables are exogenous to the model

7. 30th October 2006.7TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. Scenarios CO 2 equivalent Year 1990 2010 2000 Kyoto NO X, SO 2, COVNM, NH 3 Year 1990 2010 2000 NEC Business as usual: statistical methods are used to provide future emissions, activity rates and/or emission factors. The only information used are past data without taking into account possible effect of measures. It is a “reference” scenario and it has physical constrains. Equivalent to “without measures”. Base: it includes every plan, policy or measure officially adopted that has any effect in atmospheric emissions. Equivalent to “with measures”. Target: it incorporates additional measures aimed at achieving the targets included in both National Emissions Ceilings Directive and Kyoto Protocol. Equivalent to “with additional measures”.

8. 30th October 2006.8TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. SCENARIOS Base BAU SCENARIOS Base BAU Emission data (Inventory) Socioeconomic data Sectoral studies Legislation Technological aspects Basic information - Activity Rate trend (A) - Emission factor trend (EF) - Emission trend (E) - Control Factor (CF) and Growth Factor (G) First HypothesesMethod for calculation Evaluated emissions Below threshold? Results Definition of a Target scenario YES NO CONCLUSIONS Kyoto Protocol NEC SCENARIO Target SCENARIO Target Target Hypotheses - Activity Rate (A) - Emission factor (EF) - Emission (E) - Control & Growth Factors (CF & GF)

9. 30th October 2006.9TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. Integration criteria -Development of ‘macroscenarios’ for coherence assurance Projection estimation AR = activity rate Consistency criteria Relationships, implications Group of related activities SNAP 1 SNAP 2 SNAP... AR 1 AR 2 Hypothesis homogenization Proj 1 Proj 2 Proj... Macroscenario Σ Proj -Once the relationship mapping has been clearly identified, it is only a matter of introducing consistency conditions into the hypothesis made under each scenario for a particular activity rate

10. 30th October 2006.10TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. 1.5.- EmiPro -EmiPro (Emission Projections) is a software tool specifically developed to handle all the data and procedures involved in the SEP project. Last non-Beta version, currently v4.0 - Start screen -

11. 30th October 2006.11TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. -Generally, projections are made on national basis But, the setting of thresholds derived from NEC Directive’s commitments must be done taking into account only a subset of the total national emissions Solution: -Implementation of a parallel database system inside EmiPro corresponding to the two different geographic and pollutant scopes. None of them stores NUTS-3 level information: Design issues

12. 30th October 2006.12TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. NEC-Base: - Only NMVOC, NH 3, NO X and SO 2 - SNAP 11 (nature) emissions are excluded - NMVOC from SNAP 10 (agriculture) are excluded - Emissions under the EMEP domain (Canary Islands are not included) - Domestic and international cruise traffic (h > 1000 m) emissions are excluded - National and international airport traffic (LTO cycles<1000m) are included Results CORINAIR DB 2004 General: - National scope - All SEP’s project pollutants NEC-BaseGeneral SEP (1990-2000) NECGeneral EmiPro (1990-2020) Activity-rate historical datasets analysis and geographical disaggregation criteria - Parallel projection scheme and information stored in each database

13. 30th October 2006.13TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. Storage and recovery of past (history) emissions Main functionalities

14. 30th October 2006.14TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. Generation of projections from history data and algorithm factors Main functionalities

15. 30th October 2006.15TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. Storage and recovery of projected emissions Main functionalities

16. 30th October 2006.16TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. Reports generation Main functionalities

17. 30th October 2006.17TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. Quality Assurance/Quality Check Main functionalities

18. 30th October 2006.18TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. 1.6.- Updating system Updated NEI (series 1990-year i-2) year i year i+1 Projections 2001-2020 (NEI series 1990-year i-3) Publication of new methodology (series 1990-year i-2) Projection update (NEI series 1990-year i-2) Inclusion of new policies and measures Updated NEI (series 1990-year i-1) 9-month delay

19. 30th October 2006.19TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. Conclusions from updating system Other updates -It is not possible to obtain consistent emission projections until 9 months after NEI publication -New policies and measures are included into emission projections as they appear vs. NEI annual updates -Base year intended to be changed every 5 years -Temporal scope is extended, if necessary, when the base year is updated -Historical data up to new base year are included -Previous projected series are kept

20. 30th October 2006.20TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. 1.1. Aim of the project 1.2. Activities 1.3 Pollutants 1.4. Projection methodology 1.5. EmiPro 1.6. Update system 2.1. Ex-post evaluation 2.2. RAINS comparison 2.3. National Emission Ceilings achievement 3. CONCLUSIONS OUTLINE 1 - METHODOLOGY 2 - RESULTS

21. 30th October 2006.21TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. 2.1.- Ex-post evaluation -Each 2 years: - Projection values are checked against official NEI estimates - Comparison at group and national level - Deviation analysis: - due to trend estimation (non-updated NEI) (a) - due to methodological issues (updated NEI) (b) Ex-post evaluation for NH 3 emissionsEx-post evaluation for GHG emissions (a)

22. 30th October 2006.22TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. Ex-post evaluation for total VOC emissions* (b) * Provisional data

23. 30th October 2006.23TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. 2.2.- RAINS comparison -Development of a 4-level hierarchy nomenclature (sub-SNAP = SEP) -Mapping RAINS-SEP (biunivocal correspondence) - Comparisons: - Activity rate - Technology penetration and emission factors - NEC emissions 01/01/01/01 PP_EX_OTH-BC1-NOC SNAP Fuel = F Technology =T Reduction measure =M SEP Power Plant (SNAP) Existing (T) Other boiler type (T) Brown Coal (F) No Control Measure (M)

24. 30th October 2006.24TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. 2.3.- NEC accomplishment NH 3 Emissions* * Provisional data

25. 30th October 2006.25TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. VOC Emissions* * Provisional data

26. 30th October 2006.26TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. NOx Emissions* * Provisional data

27. 30th October 2006.27TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. SOx Emissions* * Provisional data

28. 30th October 2006.28TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. Policies and measures included in base scenario SNAP GroupsPolicy and measure 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 & 9Strategy for saving energy and improving efficiency (E4) 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8 & 9Action plan for the implementation of E4 in the period 2005-2007 1, 2, 3, 4, 7 & 9Plan for the electricity and gas sectors 1, 2, 3, 7 & 8Plan for the increase of renewable energies 1Directive 2001/80/EC for Large Combustion Plants 1BREF on Large Combustion Plant 1, 4BREF on Refineries 2, 6National plan for house accessibility 1, 2, 3, 7 & 8Directive related to the quality of petrol and diesel fuels 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10 & 11Population projections for 2002-2020 3, 4BREF on Iron and Steel production 3BREF on Ferrous Metal processing 3, 4BREF on Non-Ferrous Metal processes 3, 4BREF on Cement and Lime production 3BREF on Glass manufacture 3 4BAT on ammonia manufacture

29. 30th October 2006.29TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. SNAPPolicy and measure 4BAT on ammonium nitrate manufacture 4BREF on Chlor-Alkali manufacture 4BREF on Large Volume Organic Chemicals 4BREF on Pulp and Paper manufacture 4, 6, 7, 8Strategic Plan for Transport Infrastructures 4, 5Directive on the control of VOC emissions. 4, 8OSPAR Convention 4BREF on Food, Drink and Milk processes 6Directive on the limitation of emissions of VOC due to the use of organic solvents 6BREF on Textile processing 6Reduction of the emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF 6 in the European Union 7Auto Oil II programme 7Agreements with car manufacturers 8Directive against the emission of pollutants from engines in non-road mobile machinery 9 & 10Waste plans 9Directive on packaging and packaging waste 10 & 11Nitrogen balance in Spanish agriculture 9, 10 & 11Spanish Forestry Plan 10 & 11Reform of the CAP. Medium-Term prospects for agricultural markets and income in the EU

30. 30th October 2006.30TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. Drivers’ comparison NEC (1999)SEP (2006)IIASA (2006) 20101990%20101990%20101990% Pop. (Mp) 40,5738,974,145,5038,8517,145,5038,8517,1 GDP (b€) 631,20377,9667,0695,57406,2571,2--- Energy (PJ) 5215,003621,5344,06674,58N.A.-6674,583618,1284,5 Cattle (Mh) 6,005,1317,05,675,0612,06,145,0820,9 Pigs (Mh) 20,3015,9827,026,3316,9455,426,9416,9958,6 Poultry (Mh) 83,1044,9285,0181,53166,269,2170,03157,198,2 F. use (kt N) 1052,001062,63-1,01090,261074,171,51049,001074,17-2,3 -Most of the drivers were underestimated -SEP and IIASA estimates show a reasonable agreement Current situation2005*NEC% Population (Mp)44,1140,57+8,7% GDP (billion €)641,19631,20+1,6% Energy (PJ)6119,435215,00+17,3% Cattle (Mheads)6,65**6,00+10,9% Pigs (Mheads)24,89**20,30+22,6% Poultry (Mheads)178,35**83,10+114,6% Fertiliser use (kt N)1052,29**1052,00+0,0% * Total National ** Data from 2004

31. 30th October 2006.31TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. 2010 comparisonSEP-NECRAINS-NEC Population (Mp)+12.15% GDP (billion €)+10.20%- Energy (PJ)+27.99% Cattle (Mheads)-5.53%+2.34% Pigs (Mheads)+29.70%+32.72% Poultry (Mheads)+118.45%+104.61% Fertiliser use (kt N)+3.64%-0.29% Emissions comparison for 2010 with NEC SEP-NECRAINS-NEC NH 3 2.18%0.48% NMVOC30.09%- NOx22.13%35.43% SO 2 -52.24%-32.63%

32. 30th October 2006.32TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsSpain’s Emission Projections. UPM. 3.- Conclusions -Spain has a consistent methodology to evaluate emission projections -A tailored software tool (EmiPro) supports data management, quality checks and report generation -A specific nomenclature (SEP) has been developed with a SEP- RAINS mapping (open for comments) -Spain’s projections have been compared against RAINS/GAINS results using this mapping -SEP and RAINS emission trends are very similar -Difficulties in the achievement of the ceilings for 2010 could be partly explained by unrealistic estimation of drivers trends when negotiating Spain’s emission ceilings