1. UTAH HOUSING MARKET: CYCLES AND CONDITIONS JAMES WOOD BUREAU OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS UNIVERSITY OF UTAH APRIL 2005

2. RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS IN UTAH (Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah) Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4

3. Residential Construction in Utah County as Percent of State Residential Construction Year% of StateYear% of State 19856.70199519.74 19868.93199612.02 198714.99199715.91 198813.98199819.07 198915.80199920.20 199018.52200021.47 199117.35200121.71 199219.28200222.14 199318.41200320.48 199418.50200419.46

4. CHARACTERISTIC OF CURRENT CYCLE Utah Ranks Third in Increase in Housing Inventory Since 2000 – 11.4%. One Out of Every Eight Homes in Utah Built Since 2000, Utah County One Out of Every Five Ranked Last in Price Increases of Homes 2000-04 Share of First Time Home Buyer Market Grows in 2004 – 36% of New Home Closing Less Than $150,000 (Salt Lake, Davis, Utah) Sales of Existing Homes in Wasatch Front Counties – 38% Sold for Less Than $140,000 The Share of Rental Units at Record Low for Cycle – 10% of All Units Rental

5. CHANGE IN HOUSEHOLDS AND RESIDENITAL CONSTRUCTION IN UTAH (BEBR and U.S. Census Bureau)

6. WHAT DRIVES DEMAND FOR HOUSING? Economic Determinants of Demand Employment Income Housing Prices MLS Sales Interest Rates Demographic Determinants of Demand Household Formations Age Structure Migration Marital Status and Headship Rates Fertility Rate

7. CHANGE IN POPULATION 25 YEARS TO 34 YEARS: UTAH ( U.S. Census Bureau and Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget)

8. CHANGE IN POPULATION FOR AGE GROUP 25 YEARS TO 34 YEARS: UTAH (Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget) Ten Year Interval Change in Population (25 to 34 years) 1990-200056,800 2000-2010173,400 2010-2020-35,200 2020-203070,600

9. UTAH AVERAGE ANNUAL PAY AS PERCENT OF U.S. AVERAGE (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)

10. MEDIAN HOUSING PRICE FOR SALT LAKE METRO AND U.S. ( OFHEO and National Association of Realtors) $66,700 $75,500 $151,100 $192,900

11. Average Sales Price for Existing Homes: First Quarter (WFRMLS) Year (1 st Qtr) Salt LakeUtahDavisWeberTotal 2003$179,479$170,639$159,413$127,474$168,375 2004$189,014$171,793$163,798$120,255$172,718 2005$204,244$205,133$179,997$141,451$192,172 % Chg. 2004-05 8.0%19.5%9.8%17.6%11.3%