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IREM Forecast January 26, 2011 The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University.

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Presentation on theme: "IREM Forecast January 26, 2011 The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University."— Presentation transcript:

1 IREM Forecast January 26, 2011 The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University

2 Quarters After Trough % Change in GDP Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, (2009 Recession has 6 th Q added from GI Forecast)

3 Quarter July 2009October 2010January 2011 2009 Q1 -5.5 -4.9** Q2 -2.1 -0.7** Q3 0.6 1.6** Q4 1.1 5.0** 2010 Q1 1.4 3.7** Q2 2.7 1.7** Q3 2.3 1.5 2.6** Q4* 3.3 1.9 3.7 2011 Q1* 2.2 3.8 Q2* 2.2 3.1 Q3* 2.7 2.4 Q4* 3.7 3.3 Quarterly GDP Revisions: Global Insight *Projected **Actual

4 U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2006 – 2013 % 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Global Insight Forecast > > > > > > >

5 U.S. Job Change by Sector December 2007 – December 2009 (000s) Total - 8,363,000 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Ranked by Size in 2010

6 U.S. Job Change by Sector December 2009 – December 2010 (000s)Total = 1,124 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Ranked by Size in 2010

7 U.S. Unemployment Rate % Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted 9.4 % GI Fcst 10 9.6 11 9.5 12 8.9 13 8.2 14 7.5 15 6.9

8 Consumer Confidence 100 Present Situation Expectations Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

9 Interest Rates 2001 - 2015 Forecast > > > > > >

10 Consumer Prices 2001 - 2015 Forecast > > > > > > % Source: BLS, Global Insight

11 Oil Prices $ per barrel $/barrel Source: Global Insight Forecast > > > > > > > >

12 Growth in Total Consumption Outlays % Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Forecast > > > > >

13 The Washington Economy

14 Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average

15 Annual Job Change Washington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

16 Job Change by Sector Nov 2009 – Nov 2010 Washington MSA (000s) Total 49,200 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

17 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Nov 09 – Nov 10 (000s) Washington + 49,200 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

18 10.2 – DC 9.3 – U.S. 6.3 – SMD 6.0 – MSA 4.8 - NVA Unemployment Rate Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

19 Economic Forecast

20 Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s ) 20082009201020112012201320142015 D.C.10.1-0.610.810.39.79.69.39.4 Sub. MD -4.3-26.81.515.013.615.314.914.6 No. VA 3.7-24.59.521.520.722.922.320.3 REGION9.5-51.921.546.844.047.846.544.2 Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS

21 Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) % DC SM MSA NV Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

22 % Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015 Washington U.S.

23 policy-cra.gmu.org

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