1. Tourism Cycle Where do we go ?

2. Tourism Cycle Butler Exploration Involvement Development Consolidation StagnationDecline or Rejuvenation

3. 6 - Decline OR Rejuvenation 6A - Decline option The competition from other, ‘newer’, ‘more fashionable’ areas increases The absolute numbers of tourists drops and the psychocentrics left are lower spenders looking for bargains

4. 6A - Decline The attendant property values on tourist facilities starts to decline (for sale signs, vacancies abound) There is an increase in weekend or day trips if possible Attempts are made to change activities - perhaps use of facilities for retirement living

5. 6A - Decline Local involvement begins to grow again Corporations leave the area The economic base changes and falls in value - the ‘heyday’ is over

6. 6B - Rejuvenation Option This only seems to occur with a complete makeover 1Return to the original attraction - clean up the physical environment and rejuvenate (upgrade) accommodation and other facilities Stay with local ownership or high-grade outside ownership Intense advertising and marketing

7. 6B - Rejuvenation Option 2Addition of human-made focus or facilities Prime example would be gambling such as that created in Atlantic City Use of previously untapped physical resource Example would be such as older European Spas now used as facility bases for winter skiing New England summer resorts refurbished and used for winter skiing Hot trend - use of environment - Ecotourism

8. Considerations Places may not be able to sustain rejuvenation –May end up floating from one activity to another Places may not see a ‘cycle’ progression but may establish a fixed long-term clientele

9. A steady state may develop where a steady return rate of mass tourists keep coming back –Example would be Disneyworld - marketing changes and new developments and playing the nostalgia card –A different example would be places where cost and accessibility are foremost - such as English seaside resorts

10. So the cycle can be held at any stage or initiated (progression) by determined planning Movement on either axis (time or number of visitors implies an increase in impacts The cycle has a lifespan implicit (the X axis) but little work has been done on this aspect

11. Alternative - Gormensen Model Development may come from and be initiated by - external developers (pro active) The tourist ‘elites’ that are linked to allocentric behaviour may demand luxury accommodations and facilities

12. Seeing trends and profit potentials, governments and local populations may initiate development and keep control Factors other than tourism (Butler) may drive the system –Style of local culture –Government considerations Butler may be a part (sub-set) of the above considerations

13. Individual Decisions Processes

14. The Decision Making Process The time span for individual decision- making varies from individual to individual –depends on motivation and stimulation as we have discussed If stimulation is not present then the individual may ignore messages about new activities or let minor obstacles hinder their participation

15. The Decision Making Process The complication for understanding the end result is that individuals also pass through stages when making decisions

16. 1 - Assessment of Relative Value This is an assessment based on how personally valuable the activity or facility would be –link to Maslow - fitness, enjoyment, personal gain Problem is the perception of the activity or place - is it accurate? –activity, place, safety, cost

18. 2 - Assessment of Probable Satisfaction The assessment of an activity or place in relation to another activity or place Are the new choices more valuable than the old –investment in ‘old’ activities or places time - training, knowledge, familiarity cost - equipment, training, knowledge of ‘deals’

20. 3 - Assessment of Personal Suitability How comfortable will the individual be with all aspects of the activity or place? Plog - familiarity and adventure, self- confidence How comfortable with re-training and new experiences (beginning classes may be a different age range)

21. 4 - Assessment of Feasibility (Barriers) The practical or perceived assessment of the restrictions on one –personal (economic, personal conditioning, age, sex, knowledge of opportunities, family ties - TIME) –facility or activity restrictions (scheduling, daylight, need for other participants, location)

22. ‘It is a wonder that people recreate at all’