1. Draft Report Breakout Session III-5 Ecosystem Consequences of Climate Change Ecosystem Impacts & Feedbacks Effects on Biodiversity, Invasions, Protected Areas Societal Consequences, Ecosystem Services

2. Ecosystem Consequences of Climate Change “Climate Change” –- 35,496 hits in Web of Science “Climate Change and Ecosystem(s)” – 5,097 hits 97 in Nature/Science, 612 Reviews

3. What are likely ecosystem consequence of climate change? Terrestrial Ecosystems –Carbon –Fire –Phenology –Insect defoliation –Vegetation Communities –Permafrost –Coastal Ecosystems Marine Ecosystems –Pelagic Systems –Coastal Wetlands –Mangroves/Sea Grass –Eutrophication/Anoxia –Algal Blooms –Coral Reefs –Phytoplankton Biodiversity

4. Ecosystem Impacts and Feedbacks Carbon cycle –Very strong research, remote sensing crucial Fire Regimes –Strong research, remote sensing crucial Phenology –Strong research, remote sensing crucial

5. Ecosystem Impacts and Feedbacks Insect Defoliation –Some research, remote sensing crucial Vegetation Community Change –Strong modeling based research, remote sensing crucial for baseline –Most work has used climate envelopes, better models may be necessary

6. Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System (MAPSS) output; US Global Change Research Program. 2000. Climate Change Impacts on the United States 20002100

7. Ecosystem Impacts and Feedbacks Permafrost –Some research, remote sensing crucial Freshwater Lakes Limited research, remote sensing important Coastal Ecosystems –Some research, remote sensing important

8. Ecosystem Impacts and Feedbacks Pelagic System Very little research, remote sensing crucial Estuarine and Coastal Wetlands –Some research, innovative remote sensing required Mangroves, Sea Grass, and Kelp Beds –Some research, innovative remote sensing required Coastal Eutrophication and Anoxia –Some research, some remote sensing measurements

9. Ecosystem Impacts and Feedbacks Harmful Algal Blooms –Some research, innovative remote sensing required Coral Reefs –Some research, remote sensing crucial Ocean Acidification Important research, remote sensing important Global Phytoplanton Biodiversity / Food Webs –Some research on functional groups, innovative remote sensing methods required

10. What are likely consequences of climate change for biodiversity et al.? Biodiversity –Species Range Shifts and Extinctions –Loss of Rare Ecosystems Protected Areas Native and Exotic Invasions

11. Biodiversity, Protected Areas, and Invasions Species Range Shifts and Extinctions –Strong modeling based research, remote sensing important Loss of Rare Ecosystems –Some modeling based research, remote sensing important for baseline

12. Biodiversity, Protected Areas, and Invasions Protected Areas –Limited research on climate change threats, remote sensing important for baseline Invasions –Some modeling based research, remote sensing important

13. What are the societal consequences of climate change? Ecosystem Services –Agriculture/Forestry –Fisheries/Aquaculature –Water/Glaciers/Precipitation –Pollination –Geomorphogy Extreme weather events Urbanization Human Health Political Destabilization/Failed States

14. Threatened Ecosystem Services Agriculture / Forestry –Strong research, remote sensing crucial Fisheries / Aquaculture –Some research using remote sensing and modeling Water / Precipitation –Strong research, remote sensing important Pollination –Some research, remote sensing relevant What are the societal consequences of climate change?

15. Extreme Events (Hurricanes etc.) –Strong research, remote sensing crucial Human Health –Some research, remote sensing role unclear Political Destabilization / Failed States –Little quantitative research, remote sensing could play important role What are the societal consequences of climate change?

16. Interactions, Adaptations, and Mitigation Climate change and society What are the most important cross-cutting science questions?

17. Adaptations The importance of the rates of climate change is largely unknown –Rapid evolution; we don’t know how quickly species can adapt (genetically and behaviorally) –Species ability to migrate will depend on rates of change What are the most important cross-cutting science questions?

18. Mitigation Society will attempt to mitigate climate change What are the ecosystem consequences of different mitigation measures? E.g.., Iron fertilization What are the most important cross-cutting science questions?

19. Overview Part I Biodiversity loss Harmful Algal Blooms Sea Level Rise Ecosystem Response to Disturbance What are the most important cross-cutting science questions?

20. Overview Part II Sea Ice Loss and Change of Trade Routes Desertification Land Use Change and Coastal Systems Protected areas, source-sink dynamics, biodiversity, and carbon sequestration What are the most important cross-cutting science questions?

21. Biodiversity loss –Land use is currently more important, climate change will be after 2050 (or so) –Range shifts will depend on landscape fragmentation –Land use change in response to climate change may matter more than actual climate change What are the most important cross-cutting science questions?

22. Interdisciplinary Land-Ocean Research Affects of use change on sediments and nutrients in estuaries and ultimately harmful algal blooms Climate change and increasing duststorms affecting algal blooms What are the most important cross-cutting science questions?

23. Where are changes most likely? Focused field campaigns may be necessary Lenton et al. 2008. Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system. PNAS. 155:1786-1793

24. Vegetation structure, ecosystem function, and species distributions –DESDynI and HyspIRI (and ACE) are exciting and will be crucial Data continuity crucial (LDCM …) Ready-to-use standardized data products Web-tools, data integration Can upcoming NASA mission address these questions?

25. Model Integration Model Web (G. Geller) Partnership with Science Agencies NIH, NSF, NOAA Partnership with Management Agencies and NGOs Is there a need for additional coordination of research activities?

26. Ecosystem Consequences of Climate Change The major challenge will be to develop a holistic understanding of human-natural systems to predict climate change consequences