1. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Energy Balance vs. Energy Efficiency Indicators Michel Francoeur Head of Section Energy Statistics Division International Energy Agency ESDS International Annual Conference 2008 The Changing World London, 1 December 2008

2. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Overview Objectives Objectives Monitoring the Energy Market Monitoring the Energy Market Relevance of an Energy Balance Relevance of an Energy Balance Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance? Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance? Energy Indicators Energy Indicators Conclusion Conclusion

3. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Objectives Highlight the importance of : sound energy statistics and energy balances as a foundation to understanding the energy market, sound energy statistics and energy balances as a foundation to understanding the energy market,and the benefits of going beyond the energy balance for energy indicators. the benefits of going beyond the energy balance for energy indicators.

4. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Monitoring of the Energy Market An Evolving Challenge Production Imports/Exports Stocks Data Price Dependency Security Oil prices at $30/bl Data Diversity (gas, coal, electricity) Consumption Transformation Socio- economic Data Emissions Efficiency Rio SummitKyoto Protocol Oil prices ? Establishment of the IEA

5. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Secondary Combustible Renewables Nuclear Heat and Non- Thermal Electricity Heat and Electricity Primary Wastes Coals Crude Oil NGLs Natural Gas Oil Shale Biofuels Petroleum Products, Manufactured Solid Fuels Liquids and Gases Any Fuels Derived from Renewable Sources Non Renewables Monitoring of the Energy Market Basket of Energy Commodities

6. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Monitoring of the Energy Market From Energy Supply to Consumption Transformation Secondary Commodities Primary Commodities Final Energy Use/consumption Imports Exports Stock Changes Indigenous Production Imports Exports Stock Changes Primary Commodities Indigenous Production Driven by demand for energy services

7. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Monitoring of the Energy Market Is this the kind of energy map policy makers want?

8. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Monitoring of the Energy Market The energy balance provides for better maps, which in turn will provide…

9. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Relevance of an Energy Balance A Foundation to Policy The lack of essential data can lead the policy making process towards the wrong energy policy choices The lack of essential data can lead the policy making process towards the wrong energy policy choices A sound monitoring and reporting framework of the energy market: A sound monitoring and reporting framework of the energy market: Provides the foundation for policy and market analysis; Provides the foundation for policy and market analysis; which in turn can better inform the policy decision process; which in turn can better inform the policy decision process; therefore help policy makers: therefore help policy makers: select policy instruments best suited to meet domestic and international policy objectives; select policy instruments best suited to meet domestic and international policy objectives; and decide on required adjustments to existing policies. and decide on required adjustments to existing policies.

10. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Relevance of an Energy Balance There is a Supply & Demand side to the energy equation; For long, and for many people, monitoring the energy market was a supply issue; For long, and for many people, monitoring the energy market was a supply issue; Monitoring of demand was often limited to an aggregate energy intensity (e.g. Energy / Total GDP); Monitoring of demand was often limited to an aggregate energy intensity (e.g. Energy / Total GDP); A better understanding of demand is an essential element to defining solutions to key energy related issues: A better understanding of demand is an essential element to defining solutions to key energy related issues: Energy security, Energy security, Economic and technological development opportunities, Economic and technological development opportunities, Sustainable development, Sustainable development, Mitigating environmental impact… Mitigating environmental impact…

11. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Relevance of an Energy Balance In Summary the Energy Balance: Provides an energy supply & demand statistical equilibrium; Provides an energy supply & demand statistical equilibrium; accounting framework to validate energy flows from supply to consumption by economic sectors, accounting framework to validate energy flows from supply to consumption by economic sectors, Provides for the reconciliation of supply/disposition vs. consumption data, Provides for the reconciliation of supply/disposition vs. consumption data, Defines energy flows within boundaries of economic sectors; Defines energy flows within boundaries of economic sectors; Starting point toward a better understanding of demand for energy driven services in the deferent economic sectors and how they are delivered. Starting point toward a better understanding of demand for energy driven services in the deferent economic sectors and how they are delivered.

12. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Production Import Export International Marine Bunkers Stock Changes Domestic Supply International Marine Bunkers Stock Changes Domestic Supply Transfers Statistical Differences Transformation Sector (18 sub-sectors) Transformation Sector (18 sub-sectors) Energy Sector (16 sub-sectors) Energy Sector (16 sub-sectors) Distribution Losses Final Consumption Industry Sector (13 sub-sectors) Transport (7 sub-sectors) Other Sectors (4 sub-sectors) Non Energy Uses Electricity and Heat Outputs Electricity and Heat Outputs TOTAL: 95 FLOWS Relevance of an Energy Balance Questionnaires: Flows Collected

13. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Coal (17 products/categories) Coal (17 products/categories) Natural gas Natural gas Crude Oil and Petroleum products (25 products) Crude Oil and Petroleum products (25 products) Nuclear Energy Nuclear Energy Hydro Energy Hydro Energy Renewable Energy (19 products/categories) Renewable Energy (19 products/categories) Waste Energy (3 products/categories) Waste Energy (3 products/categories) Electricity Electricity Heat (7 categories) Heat (7 categories) TOTAL: over 75 products/categories Relevance of an Energy Balance Questionnaires: Products Collected

14. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Latin America (22 countries) Africa (27 countries) Former Soviet Union (15 countries) Middle East (13 countries) OECD (30 countries) Non OECD Europe (12countries) Asia (22 countries) Data are collected, processed and published for over 140 countries Relevance of an Energy Balance Done via a Network of Focal Points Done via a Network of Focal Points

15. © OECD/IEA, 2008 FAO UNEUROSTAT WORLD BANK OPEC OAPEC AFREPREN Relevance of an Energy Balance Network of Focal Points Network of Focal Points

16. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Online Databases & CDs Annual Books & PDF Relevance of an Energy Balance Quarterly data & Monthly data services

17. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance? An Even Stronger Foundation to Policy Detailed energy indicators provide for more targeted policy and market analysis to support policy objectives Detailed energy indicators provide for more targeted policy and market analysis to support policy objectives

18. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Indicators defined at the level of an energy balance tend to be aggregate Indicators defined at the level of an energy balance tend to be aggregate Energy self sufficiency Energy self sufficiency Energy mix / reliance Energy mix / reliance Energy intensity per GDP Energy intensity per GDP Energy intensity per Capita… Energy intensity per Capita… While todays policy objectives often try to influence the delivery and consumption of energy services While todays policy objectives often try to influence the delivery and consumption of energy services Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?

19. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance? Basic energy statistics

20. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?

21. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?

22. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?

23. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?

24. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?

25. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Detailed indicators Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?

26. © OECD/IEA, 2008 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 160% 1973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997 1973 = 100% Now you know why Total Energy Space heat/Sq. m Total Energy Space heat/Sq. m Macro Micro Energy Indicators

27. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Building an end-use mapping of energy and activity Household Energy = space heating + space cooling + cooking + water heating + lighting + appliances… Space heating = function (floor space, temperature, dwelling types, vintages, fuel mix, heating systems, cross-effect with other end-uses… ) Floor space = function (number of dwellings, average floor area by dwelling type…) For example: As you can see, it is all about data… Energy Indicators Energy consumption = Household + Industries + Comm. & Public Services + + Transportation + Agriculture …

28. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Energy Indicators Drilling Down into the Details IEA / Eurostat /APEC Statistics Aggregated indicators Disaggregated indicators Current Indicator data Process efficiency etc Some scattered national data End-uses < ===== Energy balances

29. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Energy Indicators Initial Data Coverage of IEAs Indicators

30. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Overview of the initial template Menu driven

31. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Diffusion, stocks and average consumption of selected appliances RESIDENTIAL % 10 6 kWh/unit

32. © OECD/IEA, 2008 End-use consumption by fuel

33. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Interactive Graphs

34. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Current Market Technico- Economic Potential Technological Potential Increase the uptakeSeek to provide a favourable market environment Provide economic viabilityPush further away the technological frontier Energy Indicators provides key information to : Past and Current Market Situation Monitoring Market Performance Setting Expectation Long Term Future Perspective Set the starting point and help define optimum policy measures Short… Medium… Long term Objectives Assess market performance vis-à-vis policy measures Assess medium and long term potential scenarios Qualitative perspective (Policy) Quantitative perspective (Data) Energy Use in the New Millennium Worldwide Trends in Energy Use and Efficiency Tracking Industrial Energy Efficiency Energy Technology Perspectives Energy Indicators

35. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Maintain sound energy statistics and energy balances as the foundation to energy market analysis. Maintain sound energy statistics and energy balances as the foundation to energy market analysis. Developed an energy indicators data template for the better harmonization of the data and analysis, Developed an energy indicators data template for the better harmonization of the data and analysis, Workshops to develop, with Members and partner countries, the data, the analysis and the policy aspects of energy indicators, Workshops to develop, with Members and partner countries, the data, the analysis and the policy aspects of energy indicators, Working in partnership with other organizations e.g.: Eurostat, EC, APEC… Working in partnership with other organizations e.g.: Eurostat, EC, APEC… Energy Indicators IEAs Energy Indicators work

36. © OECD/IEA, 2008 Conclusion An energy balance is a dynamic tool which provides the starting to a better understanding of the energy market and the identification of its opportunities toward policy objectives. An energy balance is a dynamic tool which provides the starting to a better understanding of the energy market and the identification of its opportunities toward policy objectives. A solid energy balance is highly beneficial to the development of energy indicators. A solid energy balance is highly beneficial to the development of energy indicators. Energy indicators provide for a stronger foundation to market and/or policy analysis and objectives. Energy indicators provide for a stronger foundation to market and/or policy analysis and objectives.

37. © OECD/IEA, 2008 To measure is to know and If you cannot measure it, you cannot improve it. you cannot improve it. Lord Kelvin Conclusion