1. 1 Mississippi River Bridge An Analysis of Alternatives Expert Panel Review Sharon Greene & Associates

2. Agenda ●Purpose and Need for New Bridge ●Existing Conditions ●Definition of Alternatives ●Comparison of Alternatives

3. Sharon Greene & Associates Purpose of Project “The purpose of the proposed action is to relieve increasingly severe traffic congestion and reduce traffic crashes on downtown St. Louis-area Mississippi River crossings, especially on the Poplar Street Bridge (I-55/70/64), thereby avoiding economic stagnation at the core of the region.” Source: Mississippi River Crossing: Relocated I-70 and I-64 Connector, Final Environmental Impact Statement, March 2001.

4. Sharon Greene & Associates Need for Project ●Improve travel capacity and travel efficiency ●Improve system linkages and community access ●Reduce traffic crashes ●Reduce travel times ●Avoid economic stagnation Source: Mississippi River Crossing: Relocated I-70 and I-64 Connector, Final Environmental Impact Statement, March 2001.

5. Sharon Greene & Associates Existing Downtown Crossings McKinley Bridge ML King Bridge Eads Bridge Poplar Street Bridge

6. Sharon Greene & Associates Existing Conditions: Daily Crossings Source: Mississippi River Crossings: Average Daily Traffic History, Illinois Department of Transportation.

7. Sharon Greene & Associates Existing Conditions: Downtown AM Peak Westbound Destinations I-64 CBD I-70 I-55 10,964 Total Peak Hour Trips 3,847 (35%) 1,478 (13%) 3,877 (35%) Source: Mississippi River Crossings: Overview of Travel Patterns, East-West Council of Governments, September 2005. 1,762 (16%) N Mississippi River

8. Sharon Greene & Associates Existing Conditions: Poplar AM Peak Westbound Destinations I-64 CBD I-70 I-55 6,767 Total Peak Hour Trips 3,847 (57%) 1,478 (22%) 979 (14%) Source: Mississippi River Crossings: Overview of Travel Patterns, East-West Council of Governments, September 2005. 463 (7%) N Mississippi River Poplar

9. Sharon Greene & Associates Existing Conditions: All Downtown Crossings by Vehicle Type AM Peak, Westbound Destinations Movement Passenger Vehicles Heavy Trucks I-6499%1% I-55/I-4488%12% I-7090%10% Downtown98%2% Total96%4% Source: Special Traffic Counts, East-West Council of Governments, December 2006.

10. Sharon Greene & Associates Existing Conditions: Poplar Street Crossings by Vehicle Type AM Peak, Westbound Destinations Movement Passenger Vehicles Heavy Trucks I-6499%1% I-55/I-4488%12% I-7079%21% Downtown94%6% Total95%5% Source: Mississippi River Crossings: Overview of Travel Patterns, East-West Council of Governments, September 2005.

11. Sharon Greene & Associates Existing Conditions: Poplar Street Crossings by Vehicle Type: Off-Peak Only West bound Destinations Movement Passenger Vehicles Heavy Trucks I-6494%6% I-55/I-4470%30% I-7067%33% Downtown97%3% Total82%18% Source: Mississippi River Crossings: Overview of Travel Patterns, East-West Council of Governments, September 2005.

12. Sharon Greene & Associates Alternatives Under Consideration McKinley Bridge ML King Bridge Eads Bridge Poplar Street Bridge Proposed MRB Proposed Coupler Bridge Proposed IL-3 Proposed I-64

13. Sharon Greene & Associates MRB: No Connections ●Landside Improvements: None ●Capital Cost Estimate: $999.2M (YOE) ●Proposed Schedule: 2009-2014 ●NEPA Status: ROD proposed 2007 ●Potential Committed Funding:  SAFETEA-LU Earmarks: $239M  Additional IDOT Funding: $210M ●Tolling Considered: Yes Proposed MRB

14. Sharon Greene & Associates MRB: With I-64 Connector ●Landside Improvements: I-64 Connection ●Capital Cost Estimate: $1,561.5M (YOE) ●Proposed Schedule: 2009-2014 ●NEPA Status: ROD proposed 2007 ●Potential Committed Funding:  SAFETEA-LU Earmarks: $239M  Additional IDOT Funding: $210M ●Tolling Considered: Yes Proposed MRB Proposed I-64

15. Sharon Greene & Associates MRB: With I-64 and IL-3 Connections ●Landside Improvements: I-64 Connection and IL-3 Connection ●Capital Cost Estimate: $1,762.5M (YOE) ●Proposed Schedule: 2009-2014 ●NEPA Status: ROD proposed 2007 ●Potential Committed Funding:  SAFETEA-LU Earmarks: $239M  Additional IDOT Funding: $210M ●Tolling Considered: Yes Proposed MRB Proposed I-64 Proposed IL-3

16. Sharon Greene & Associates MLK Coupler Bridge ●Landside Improvements: None ●Capital Cost Estimate: $545.9M (YOE) ●Proposed Schedule: 2012-2014 ●NEPA Status: Not Analyzed ●Potential Committed Funding:  SAFETEA-LU Earmarks: $239M  Additional IDOT Funding: $210M ●Tolling Considered: No Proposed Coupler Bridge

17. Sharon Greene & Associates Comparison of Alternatives ●Congestion Reduction ●Network Connectivity ●Travel Time Savings ●Regional Economic Development Impacts ●Potential for Revenue Generation

18. Sharon Greene & Associates Congestion Reduction: 2020 Traffic Volume Comparison 214,358 371,705 230,135 381,755 391,378 246,400 391,828 242,625 392,079 246,248 391,232 234,238 391,346 232,368 391,254 233,609 391,220 230,861 Source: East-West Gateway Council of Government Travel Demand Model Run

19. Sharon Greene & Associates Congestion Reduction: 2020 Traffic Volume Comparison Source: East-West Gateway Council of Government Travel Demand Model Run

20. Sharon Greene & Associates Congestion Reduction: 2020 AM Westbound Volume to Capacity (V/C) Ratio Source: East-West Gateway Council of Government Travel Demand Model Run

21. Sharon Greene & Associates Congestion Reduction: 2020 PM Eastbound Volume to Capacity (V/C) Ratio Source: East-West Gateway Council of Government Travel Demand Model Run

22. Sharon Greene & Associates Travel Patterns MRB: All Connections

23. Sharon Greene & Associates Internal/External Trips Analysis: New MRB Source: East-West Gateway Council of Government Travel Demand Model Run

24. Sharon Greene & Associates Internal/External Trips Analysis: Poplar Street Bridge Source: East-West Gateway Council of Government Travel Demand Model Run

25. Sharon Greene & Associates Internal/External Trips Analysis: Change on Poplar Street Bridge Source: East-West Gateway Council of Government Travel Demand Model Run

26. Sharon Greene & Associates Annual Travel Time Savings: All Bridges Source: East-West Gateway Council of Government Travel Demand Model Run

27. Sharon Greene & Associates Average Travel Time for AM Westbound Trips: Poplar, New MRB, and MLK Bridges Source: East-West Gateway Council of Government Travel Demand Model Run

28. Sharon Greene & Associates Average Travel Time Between Key Origins and Destinations

29. Sharon Greene & Associates Average Travel Time Savings Source: East-West Gateway Council of Government Travel Demand Model Run

30. Sharon Greene & Associates Average Travel Time Savings Source: East-West Gateway Council of Government Travel Demand Model Run

31. Sharon Greene & Associates Average Travel Time Savings Source: East-West Gateway Council of Government Travel Demand Model Run

32. Sharon Greene & Associates Average Travel Time Savings Source: East-West Gateway Council of Government Travel Demand Model Run

33. Sharon Greene & Associates Regional Economic Development Impacts ●Little definitive data is available ●Business community forecasts show positive impacts in qualitative terms ●Changes in the rate of growth and traffic within the region over the last 10 years raises issues related to economic growth: ●Will a new bridge spur new net growth, and hence contribute positively to the region’s economy? ●Will the absence of a new bridge hinder potential growth with an inherent negative impacts on the region’s economy?

34. Sharon Greene & Associates Potential Toll Revenue Generation ●Toll Diversion Rates ●Assumptions ●Potential Revenue Generation ●Potential Funding Scenario

35. Sharon Greene & Associates Estimated Toll Diversion Rates: Travel Demand Model Results Source: East-West Gateway Council of Government Travel Demand Model Run

36. Sharon Greene & Associates Potential Toll Bond Revenue Generation: Assumptions ●Weekend traffic levels: 0.5 * weekday levels ●Annualization Factors  Weekday: 250  Weekend: 115 ●Toll Rate Scenarios:  $1 Auto / $3 Truck  $2 Auto / $4 Truck ●Annual O&M Cost:10% of Annual Toll Revenue ●Debt Coverage Level: 1.4 ●Bond Amortization: 30 years @ 5.75%

37. Sharon Greene & Associates Potential Toll Bond Revenue Generation Estimate: Travel Demand Model Results (in millions) MRB: All Connect - $1/$3 MRB: I-64 Connect - $1/$3 MRB: No Connect - $1/$3 MRB: All Connect - $2/$4 2020 Annual Auto Volume6.966.995.432.33 2020 Annual Truck Volume0.62622,3800.560.76 Annual Toll Revenue$8.81$8.86$7.10$7.71 Annual O&M Estimate$0.88$0.89$0.71$0.77 Annual Net Revenue$7.93$7.96$6.39$6.94 Available for Bonding (1.4 Coverage)$5.66$5.70$4.57$4.96 Bond Issue$80.00 $64.00$70.00 Percent of Total Project Costs4.54%5.12%6.41%3.97% Additional Cost to Project (Interest on Bonds) $89.72 $71.78$78.5

38. Sharon Greene & Associates Potential Funding Scenarios: Travel Demand Model Results

39. Sharon Greene & Associates Potential Funding Scenarios: Travel Demand Model Results

40. Sharon Greene & Associates Potential Toll Bond Revenue Generation: Additional Consultant Assumption ●$1 Auto / $3 Truck Diversion Rate = 50% ●$2 Auto / $4 Truck Diversion Rate = 70%

41. Sharon Greene & Associates Potential Toll Bond Revenue Generation Estimate: Consultant Assumption (in millions) MRB: All Connect - $1/$3 MRB: I-64 Connect - $1/$3 MRB: No Connect - $1/$3 MRB: All Connect - $2/$4 2020 Annual Auto Volume13.4513.148.158.07 2020 Annual Truck Volume2.742.541.861.65 Annual Toll Revenue$21.68$20.75$13.73$22.73 Annual O&M Estimate$2.17$2.08$1.37$2.72 Annual Net Revenue$19.51$18.68$12.36$20.45 Available for Bonding (1.4 Coverage)$13.94$13.34$8.82$14.61 Bond Issue$195.00$189.00$172.00$205.00 Percent of Total Project Costs11.06%12.10%17.21%11.63% Additional Cost to Project (Interest on Bonds) $218.69$211.96$192.86$229.90

42. Sharon Greene & Associates Potential Funding Scenarios: Consultant Assumptions

43. Sharon Greene & Associates Potential Funding Scenarios: Consultant Assumptions

44. Sharon Greene & Associates Questions?