1. Kansas and Climate Change Johan Feddema & Nate Brunsell, KU Department of Geography Presentation to the Kansas Energy Council’s MGA Committee, Feb. 21, 2008

2. What is Climate Science Understanding of the movement of energy into, through, and out of the Earth System Based on physics through the processes of: Electromagnetic radiation Convective heating of the Atmosphere (sensible heat)‏ Convective transport of water vapor

3. Background: The Climate System Source: IPCC 2007

4. So what are we worried about? Humans develop as species { 1900 1958 2005 Ice Age Present Future? 1900 Rate = +0.7 ºC 100yrs 0.7 ºC 100 years Rate ≈ +0.036 ºC 100yrs 5-8 ºC 18,000 years Rate – Depends on: response time? feed backs? Last Glacial Maximum Domestication of plants and animals Industrial revolution begins

5. Climate Simulation: How good are the models?

6. Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007 Climate projections: What is to come?

7. Climate change experiments from 16 groups (11 countries) and 23 models collected at PCMDI (over 31 terabytes of model data)‏ Committed warming averages 0.1°C per decade for the first two decades of the 21 st century; across all scenarios, the average warming is 0.2 ° C per decade for that time period (recent observed trend 0.2°C per decade )‏ IPCC Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32 Anomalies relative to 1980-99 Climate projections: Global Temperature

8. Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice Observations Simulated 5-year running mean Gradual forcing results in abrupt Sept ice decrease Extent decreases from 70 to 20% coverage in 10 years. “Abrupt” transition Impacts of Climate Change – Sea Ice Extent Sources NSIDC NCAR Simulated Observed Greenland Russia Scandinavia Alaska Canada Alaska Greenland Russia

9. + 2 C all months + 0% Precipitation D = 95 S = 246 + 4 C all months + 0% Precipitation D =151 S = 188 + 1.5 C all months + 5% Precipitation D = 69 S = 302 Present Day Normal D = 47 S = 304 2050 Kansas Climate projections Eastern Kansas (37N, 95W)‏ 2100 + 3 C all months + 5% Precipitation D =107 S = 255 Precipitation Potential Evapotranspiration D = Annual Deficit (mm)‏ S = Annual Surplus (mm)‏ Source: IPCC 2007 J. Feddema University of Kansas IPCC A1B Scenario Middle of the road Scenario 3.5ºC (6.3ºF) annual T increase 3% annual P increase (summer -3% P)‏

10. + 1.5 C all months + 5% Precipitation D = 383 S = 0 2050 Kansas Climate projections D = Annual Deficit (mm)‏ S = Annual Surplus (mm)‏ Western Kansas (37N, 95W)‏ 2100 + 2 C all months + 0% Precipitation D = 433 S = 0 + 3 C all months + 5% Precipitation D =463 S = 0 + 4 C all months + 0% Precipitation D =540 S = 0 Source: IPCC 2007 J. Feddema University of Kansas Precipitation Potential Evapotranspiration D = 330 S = 0 IPCC A1B Scenario Middle of the road Scenario 3.5ºC (6.3ºF) annual T increase 3% annual P increase (summer -3% P)‏

11. QUESTIONS?

12. CLIMATE SYSTEM

13. Mechanisms of Climate Change What Causes Climate to Change Solar variation (input to the system)‏ How energy travels through and is partitioned in the atmosphere (Greenhouse Effect)‏ How energy is partitioned at the surface Storage and release of energy in various components of the earth system (e.g. Oceans)‏

14. Background: Human Climate Interactions Human impacts on the climate system Agriculture Grazing Natural Vegetation? Urban De/Re-forestation Soil Degradation Atmospheric Composition Solar Variation

15. Keven Trenberth, NCAR How reliable are climate models

16. z 342 324 390 165 40 235 30 0 78 24 67 107 30 77 168 Surface Energy Balance: 168 = 390 – 324 + 24 + 78 Top of Atmosphere Energy Balance: 342 – 107 = 235 Sensible Heat Latent Heat Evapo- transpiration Conduction Long-wave Radiation from Clouds Long-wave Radiation from Atmosphere Long-wave Radiation Atmospheric Window Longwave Radiation Absorbed by Atmosphere Longwave Radiation Emmited by Surface Long-wave Radiation Emitted by Atmosphere 350 Outgoing Long-wave Radiation Thermal heating Incoming Solar Radiation Shortwave Reflected Shortwave radiation by Clouds Aerosols and Gases Reflected Shortwave radiation by Surface Absorbed Shortwave radiation by Surface Absorbed Shortwave radiation by Atmosphere Reflected Shortwave radiation Global Average Energy Balance Atmosphere Energy Balance: 67 + 350 + 24 + 78 = 324 + 165 + 30

17. z 342 324 390 165 40 235 30 0 78 24 67 107 30 77 168 Surface Energy Balance: 168 – 324 = 390 + 24 + 78 + 0 Top of Atmosphere Energy Balance: 342 – 107 = 235 Sensible Heat Latent Heat Evapo- transpiration Conduction Long-wave Radiation from Clouds Long-wave Radiation from Atmosphere Long-wave Radiation Atmospheric Window Longwave Radiation Absorbed by Atmosphere Longwave Radiation Emmited by Surface Long-wave Radiation Emitted by Atmosphere 350 Outgoing Long-wave Radiation Thermal heating Incoming Solar Radiation Shortwave Reflected Shortwave radiation by Clouds Aerosols and Gases Reflected Shortwave radiation by Surface Absorbed Shortwave radiation by Surface Absorbed Shortwave radiation by Atmosphere Reflected Shortwave radiation Global Average Energy Balance 39 234 3512 1 166 326 79 391 Atmosphere Energy Balance: 67 + 350 + 24 + 78 = 324 + 165 + 30 235 352 16679326352 79 391326

18. Effects of CO2 on Energy Balance Sources: Globalwarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Atmospheric_Transmission_png Gordley et al. (1994). J..Quant. Spect. & Rad. Trans. 52 (5). Kiehl and Trenberth (1997) Bull. Am. Meteor. Assoc. 78. Lashof (1989). Climatic Change 14 (3): 213-242. Rothman et al. (2004). J..Quant. Spect. & Rad. Trans. 96. Peixoto and Oort (1992). Physics of Climate. Springer

19. Kansas Historical Records

20. Source: IPCC 2007

21. Global Climate over the last century Source: IPCC 2007

23. Figure 10.18

24. Figure 10.19

25. Figure 11.12

26. How to lie with Statistics (or maps)‏ 1977 to 2007 Annual 1977 - 2007 Average = 54.56 degF Annual 1977 - 2007 Trend = 0.53 degF / Decade 1930 to 2007 Annual 1930 - 2007 Average = 54.55 degF Annual 1930 - 2007 Trend = -0.04 degF / Decade Kansas Temperature Changes Source National Climate Data Center http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl 1895 to 2007 Annual 1895 - 2007 Average = 54.27 degF Annual 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.09 degF / Decade

27. Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Average = 31.54 degF Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Trend = 0.21 degF / Decade Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Average = 76.50 degF Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.04 degF / Decade Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Average = 55.87 degF Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Trend = -0.04 degF / Decade Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Average = 53.23 degF Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.12 degF / Decade Source National Climate Data Center http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl Spring WinterFall Summer Kansas Temperature Changes: Seasonal

28. Annual 1895 - 2007 Average = 27.50 Inches Annual 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.22 Inches / Decade Annual 1930 - 2007 Average = 27.62 Inches Annual 1930 - 2007 Trend = 0.56 Inches / Decade Annual 1977 - 2007 Average = 28.96 Inches Annual 1977 - 2007 Trend = 0.32 Inches / Decade Kansas Precipitation Changes Source National Climate Data Center http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl 1895-2007 1930-2007 1977-2007

29. Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Average = 2.53 Inches Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Trend = 0.02 Inches / Decade Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Average = 6.18 Inches Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.02 Inches / Decade Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Average = 10.64 Inches Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.05 Inches / Decade Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Average = 8.14 Inches Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.12 Inches / Decade Source National Climate Data Center http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl Spring WinterFall Summer Kansas Precipitation Changes: Seasonal

30. HISTORICAL FORCINGS

31. Climate Science How can we know climate is changing and what is causing it? Observations Surface observation networks (weather stations etc)‏ Balloon observations Satellites Geologic and other evidence Use models to simulate processes and evaluate the combinations of independent factors driving climate change This is expensive and requires national/international level resources Form the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)‏ Contributions from over 2500 scientists from around the world 23 Global Climate Models (GCMs) (+ many more specialized models)‏ Some of the worlds fastest supercomputers (Earth Simulator)‏ IPCC has produced 4 reports freely available at (www.ipcc.ch)‏ 1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007 Reports are a summary of the state of knowledge from reviewed literature

32. Sources: Globawarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Sunspot_Numbers_png Hoyt and Schatten (1998a) Solar Physics 179: 189-219. Hoyt, and Schatten (1998b) Solar Physics 181: 491-512. Stott et al. (2003) Journal of Climate 16: 4079-4093.

34. Recent Climate Variable Trends: Observations Sources: Globawarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Short_Instrumental_Temperature_Record_png Brohan, et al. (2006) J. Geophaysical Research 111: D12106 Luo etal. (2002 J Clim 15: 2806-2820 Sources: Globawarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Solar_Cycle_Variations_png Irradiance:/www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant International sunspot number:/www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/SOLAR/ftpsunspotnumber.html Flare index: www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/astronomy/readme.html 10.7cm radio flux: www.drao-ofr.hia-iha.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/icarus/www/sol_home.shtml

35. QUESTIONS?

36. Why are climate Scientists concerned? What is the big deal with Global Warming? We are observing human induced changes in the system that we know to affect climate. Atmospheric composition (CO2, Methane, aerosols, etc.)‏ Land cover change that affects CO2 and energy partitioning We are seeing changes in the climate and related systems that suggest we are in a transition Temperature records Sea ice records Biological systems

38. Higher CO2 in the Past – Absolutely! Permian Crash Extinction of Dinosaurs Terrestrial plants But it was a different world Sources Globalwarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Phanerozoic_Carbon_Dioxide_png Bergman etaal (2004). American Journal of Science 301: 182-204. Berner and Kothavala (2001). American Journal of Science 304: 397–437. Gradstein, FM and JG Ogg (1996). Episodes 19: 3-5. Gradsteinet al. (2005). A geologic time scale 2004. Camb. Univ. Press Rothman (2001) Proc. of the Nat. Academy of Sciences 99 (7): 4167-4171. Royer, et al. (2004) GSA Today www.scotese.com

39. MODEL VALIDATION

40. Timeline of Climate Model Development

42. T. Barnett and D. Pierce of SIO

43. MODEL PROJECTIONS?

44. Climate Change Attribution

45. Climate Change Scenarios : At any point in time, we are committed to additional warming and sea level rise from the radiative forcing already in the system. Warming stabilizes after several decades, but sea level from thermal expansion continues to rise for centuries. Each emission scenario has a warming impact. (Meehl et al., 2005: How much more warming and sea level rise? Science, 307, 1769-1772) ‏

48. BACKGROUNDS STATISTICS

50. Regional sources of emissions

51. Greenhouse gas sources