1. Research Methods

2. Reasoning Fallacies Hindsight bias
Tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it
The “I knew it all along” phenomenon
Ex: After the Packers lost on Sunday, people thought, “I knew all along they’d lose.” – even if they didn’t

3. Overconfidence Tendency to think we know more than we do
EX: Thinking you did better on a quiz than you actually did

4. Ethics In conducting an experiment, psychologists must
Obtain informed consent of participants
Protect them from harm and discomfort
Treat info about participants confidentially
Fully explain research afterward

5. Testing hypotheses with descriptive methods
Case study - studies one person in depth in hopes of revealing universal principles
EX: studying a patient with a specific mental disorder

6. Survey - uses a representative sample of people to estimate attitudes or reported behaviors of a whole population
Population - all the cases in a group being studied from which samples may be drawn
Random sample - every member of a population has an equal chance of inclusion

7. Practice
At the end of the first two weeks of the baseball season, newspapers start publishing the top ten batting averages. The leader after the first two weeks normally has a batting average of .450 or higher. Yet no major league baseball player has ever finished the season with a better than .450 average. What do you think is the explanation for the fact that batting averages are higher earlier in the season?

8. Importance of Sample Size
Imagine you are a golfer of above-average ability and that you have the opportunity to play the greatest golfer in the world. If you want to maximize your slim chance of winning, how much golf would you elect toplay, g iven the choices of 1, 18, 36 or 72 holes?

9. A certain town is served by two hospitals
A certain town is served by two hospitals. In the larger hospital about 45 babies are born each day, and in the smaller hospital about 15 babies are born each day. Although the overall proportion of boys is about 50%, the actual proportion at either hospital may be greater or less than 50% on any day. At the end of a year, which hospital will have the greater number of days on which more than 60% of the babies born were boys?
The larger hospital
The smaller hospital
Neither – the number of days will be about the same (within 5% of each other)

10. Naturalistic observation - observing and recording behavior in a natural environment
Studying gorillas in the wild or high school behavior in the lunch room
Advantage: Can observe someone in his natural environment
Disadvantages:
Reactivity subject’s behavior is different when the person knows he is being observed than it would otherwise be
Single cases may be misleading

11. Correlational studies
Measure how closely two things vary together and thus how well either one predicts the other
Graphed on a scatterplot and measured with a correlation coefficient
Positive = two sets of scores rise or fall together
Negative = two sets of scores relate inversely
zero = weak correlation

12. CORRELATION DOES NOT PROVE CAUSATION
EX: Self-esteem and depression are negatively correlated. Which is causation? Is a third factor (heredity, age) to blame?

13. Illusory correlation: The perception of a relationship where none exists
EX: It always rains after you wash your car.

15. Experimentation: in psychology, a study where variables are manipulated to determine a casual outcome
Random assignment - assigning participants to experimental and control groups by chance
Double blind procedure - neither the research participants nor the research staff know whether participants have received the treatment or a placebo

16. Placebo effect - experimental results caused by expectations alone
EX: A drug/treatment works simply because the participant believes it will

17. EXPERIMENTAL EXAMPLE
Experimental terms using the hypothesis: Breast feeding increases intelligence
Experimental group - group exposed to treatment
Babies who are breastfed
Control group - group not exposed to treatment
Babies who are bottle fed

18. Independent variable (IV) - experimental factor that is manipulated
Breast fed or bottle fed
Confounding variable - factor other than the IV that might produce an effect in an experiment
Environment, diet, wealth
Dependent variable - outcome factor; variable that may change in response to manipulations of the IV
Intelligence

19. Statistical significance - observed difference is likely not due to chance variation between the samples