1. 1 SUSTAINABLE WORLD COAL MINING AND USE: PERSPECTIVES TO 2030 by Dr. Klaus Brendow World Energy Council, Geneva / London INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE 22-23 NOVEMBER 2005 WARSAW

2. 2 FOUR QUESTIONS: I.WHAT IS COAL’S ROLE IN WORLD MINING? II.WHAT ARE COAL’S PERSPECTIVES TO 2030? III.WOULD THOSE BE SUSTAINABLE”? IV.WHAT ARE THE ISSUES AND OPTIONS FOR INDUSTRY AND GOVERNMENTS?

3. 3 COAL MINING WORLDWIDE: A COMPARISON World coal demand 2002: 4.8 bill. t investments in coal mining equipment: $ 6.1 billion/year fatalities: 10,000 +

4. 4 THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES 2000-2030-2050 2030: + 50 % (IEA), 100 % (EU)

5. 5 The main drivers are: electricity generation: in 2030, coal covers 45 % of world power need coal trade: about 640 mt in 2000 to 1100 mt in 2030 huge coal “reserves ”

6. 6 Share of developing countries in world coal demand: 1990: 37 %, 2050 68 % CEE/CIS: modest revival till 2020 and possibly 2030 (+ 12 % )

7. 7 THE REASON: COAL’S PRICE COMPETITIVENESS IS GROWING Coal’s main competitor till 2030: natural gas, thereafter perhaps new nuclear

8. 8 GROWTH THANKS TO: PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN MINING:  5 to 10 %/year during the 1980  10 to 15 %/year, during the 1990s  growth to continue due to rising labor productivity, restructuring, liberalization, technology transfer, growth of opencast versus underground mining HIGHER EFFICIENCIES IN POWER PLANTS present world average: 32 % state of the art 42 to 25 % perspective: 50 to 53 %

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10. 10 III. SUSTAINABLE COAL USE  mining control of dust, noise, water tables, land use  emissions of SO 2, No x desulphurization, denoxification  emissions of CO 2 efficiency plus carbon sequestration and storage

11. 11 Results:  stabilization possible as of 2030  even at doubling of coal demand by 2050,  but no decrease against 2000

12. 12 IV. POLICIES AND BUSINESS STRATEGIES  Governments  to favour market-oriented, non-discriminatory energy policies (phase-out price controls, import tariffs, producer subsidies; privatisation)  to support RD&D in carbon capture and storage  to adopt ILO Convention on Safety in Mines, close illegal mines, and regulate small-scale mining  to encourage technology transfer, JI, CDM and emission trading  to enforce higher environmental standards

13. 13 MINING COMPANIES  to preserve coal’s price competitiveness and profitability  to promote sustainable mining, e. g. through ISO certification  to deploy good mining and management practices to newly emerging coal nations (capacity building, community development) COAL-BASED POWER GENERATORS  to proactively support clean coal combustion technologies and RD&D in carbon capture and storage to explore synfuels production  to promote coal’s image and spread the message:

14. 14 1.COAL CAN CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANTLY TO SOCIO- ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ERADICATION OF ENERGY POVERTY AND SECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLIES. 2. COAL CAN BE CLEAN. 3. COAL IS PART OF THE PROBLEM OF SUSTAINABILITY, BUT ALSO PART OF THE SOLUTION.”

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