1. Evaluating Election Administration in the 2006 Midterm Elections Professor Rick Hasen Loyola Law School, Los Angeles

2. Three means of evaluating 2006 election  Meltdown standard  Public confidence standard  Election administration competence standard

3.  Meltdown standard Election a success because the balance of Senate or House did not depend upon resolution of an election administration snafu Serendipity: We are lucky Montana election administration was not like Denver’s

4. Public opinion standard: Evidence to 2004

5. Public confidence standard shows gaps by race, party in 2006 (pre-election)

6. Source: Pew Center for People and the Press Oct. 11, 2006 release http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/291.pdf

7.  Election administration competence standard Serious, isolated problems Denver, FL-13 (Sarasota race) Less serious, widespread problems Poll worker problems, machine malfunctions, etc.

8. Litigation issues

9.  The average number of cases in the 1996–99 period was 96 per year, compared to an average of 254 cases per year from 2001–04.  Preliminary look at 2006 numbers shows at least 240 cases, consistent with post-2001 trend.

10. Main issue with much election administration litigation: lack of good empirical evidence  Voter identification evidence needed to assess (1) Extent of impersonation fraud voter id laws deter; and (2) Extent of deterrence of eligible voters caused by voter id laws Unfortunately, access v. integrity debate mostly in a vacuum

11.  So far, not much evidence points to impersonation fraud. EAC preliminary report; lack of EAC leadership on this issue  Preliminary study by Eagleton Institute and Moritz on deterrence of eligible voters showing decline in voting in states using voter identification cases, especially among racial minorities (http://www.eac.gov/docs/Public%20Meeting,%202-08- 07,%20Testimony%20O'Neill%20and%20Vercellotti.pdf)

12. Troubling treatment of this issue by the courts  Supreme Court’s opinion in Purcell v. Gonzalez Troubling suggestion of balancing a “feeling” of disenfranchisement when ineligible voters vote  7 th Circuit opinion in Indiana voter identification case: no good evidence on either side (but concerns about Judge Posner’s opinion on value of voting)

13. Electronic voting issues  Sarasota/Florida governor’s decision on electronic voting machines  EAC/Ciber controversy  Possible congressional legislation  Voter confidence v. election administration issues (paper trail)