1. The Wiki and the Blog NIH Wiki Fair D. Calvin Andrus Chief Technology Officer Center for Mission Innovation Central Intelligence Agency 28 February 2007

2. 2 Battle of New Orleans

3. 28 February 20073 Operation Iraqi Freedom

4. 28 February 20074 Intelligence - Policy Time Compression

5. 28 February 20075 Arms Race v.s. Times Race Rapid responses are required to maintain tactical and strategic advantages over those who would do the United States harm

6. 28 February 20076 Rapid Turnover and Genetic Research Family: Drosophilidae Maturity: 14 Days Gestation: 10 Days Offspring: 500 Family: Elephantidae Maturity: 11 Years Gestation: 22 Months Offspring: 1

7. 28 February 20077 Rapid Policy Turnover and Intelligence Cold War Global War on Terrorism

8. 28 February 20078 We Must Adapt to Change The US National Security Communityand the Intelligence Community within itis faced with the issue of how to operate in a security environment that, by its nature, is changing rapidly in ways we cannot predict. A simple answer is that the Intelligence Community, by its nature, must change rapidly in ways we cannot predict.

9. 28 February 20079 Allow Learning to Change Us We must transform the Intelligence Community into a community that dynamically reinvents itself by continuously learning and adapting as the national security environment changes.

10. 28 February 200710 Begin Detour Here... On our way to suggesting an answer, let us consider the ideas of those who have already wrestled with similar issues...

11. 28 February 200711 What do These Have in Common? Alan Turing, 1912-1954 Ant Hill Adam Smiths Invisible Hand Fractals The Butterfly Effect General System Theory

12. 28 February 200712 Complexity Theory They are all examples of a extremely diverse body of thought that has recently been codified as Complexity Theory. Complex Adaptive Behavior is a basic tenet of this theory and is characterized by: –Cooperative individual behavior –Emergence of a community –Adaptation to feedback

13. 28 February 200713 Complex Adaptive Behavior

14. 28 February 200714 Complexity Theory Suggests...... that from intelligence officers who are allowed to share information and act upon it within a simple tradecraft regime will emerge an intelligence community that continuously and dynamically reinvents itself in response to the needs of the national security environment.

15. 28 February 200715 Technology Can Enable Complex Adaptive Behavior in Human Knowledge Workers

16. 28 February 200716 One Model to Follow...

17. 28 February 200717 Wiki Home Page

25. 28 February 200725 Soggy Sweat

26. 28 February 200726 Discussion

27. 28 February 200727 Talk Update

28. 28 February 200728 Sweat Update

29. 28 February 200729 Capabilities Wikis Bring Because Wikis are real-time, self-authored, hyperlinked bodies of knowledge that are open to everyone on the system, they can adapt as fast as a person can enter information. With the addition of –knowledgebase, –search, and –feedback tools, contributors can know--in real time--how the knowledge is received, and thus can make adjustments--in real time.

30. 28 February 200730 Standing on Giants If I have been able to see further, it was only because I stood on the shoulders of giants. Wikis can provide a space for our Intelligence giants to walk... and for them to stand on each others shoulders in near real time.

31. 28 February 200731 The Technology Stack

32. 28 February 200732 Social Value of Technology

33. 28 February 200733 Metcalfe and Disruption Robert Metcalfe, inventor of the Ethernet protocol and founder of 3Com, asserted that the value of a communication system grows as approximately the square of the number of nodes of the system. –Andruss corollary is that the value of a web space (wikis and blogs) grows as the square of the number of links created in the web space. Once a critical mass is reached, new social, political, and economic systems start to emerge. This is what authors Downes and Mui call the Law of Disruption. Larry Downes and Chunka Mui (1998) Unleashing the Killer App: Digital Strategies for Market Dominance. Cambridge, MA. Harvard Business School Press.

34. 28 February 200734 Page Rank

35. 28 February 200735 Critical Mass (as of 2/11/07)

36. 28 February 200736 New IC Emerges Through Links

37. 28 February 200737 Intellipedia

38. 28 February 200738 A Space to Grow By deploying wikis on classified networks, and granting access to all comers, we put the Foreign Policy, Defense, National Security, and Intelligence Communities together. Knowledge and feedback is shared by all. »Thus, changes in the National Security environment can be learned by the Intel Community, which in turn, can adapt »From simple local interactions, a global community emerges

39. 28 February 200739 Intellipedia

40. 28 February 200740 Behavior Changes

41. 28 February 200741 In Conclusion Technology is the enabler, not the solution The solution is changing the culture to allow intelligence officers to share and act -- with simple rules of engagement The IC/CMS must build an incentive and reward structure for those components that adopt this new model of doing business

42. 28 February 200742 The End

43. 28 February 200743 Backup Slides Follow

44. 28 February 200744 Feedback Examples

45. 28 February 200745 Two examples of self-organizing websites that allow expertise to play a deciding role are –Slashdot –Experts Exchange

48. For X = min to max, step For Y = min to max, step For counter = min to limit, step 1 C = X + Y Z(counter+1) = Z(counter) * Z(counter) + C If Z(counter+1) > threshold then next counter else plot X,Y with color (counter) and go to next Y If counter=limit then plot X,Y with color (black) Next Y Next X Mandelbrot Fractal Algorithm Z (n+1) = Z (n) ^2 + C, where C = X+Y