1. Divining the Future: Library Workers and Information Technology Darlene Fichter September 19, 1999

2. Taking a Look at the Future n Computers n Wider Context: Knowledge Economy/Labour force trends economies, consumers and Eatons n Library Trends n What should library worker’s focus on?

3. The Future "Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons." (Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949). "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” (Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943).

4. "I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year.” (The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957). "But what... is it good for?" (Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip). There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” (Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp. 1977).

5. Knowledge based economy Rapid shift to knowledge based economy has an impact on education, training and skills required to find work in the 1990’s. n Labour Force n Industry Trends n Skills

6. What do the Economists have to say? n Like all industrialized countries, employment in Canada has shifted from the goods sector (natural resources, manufacturing) to the services sector. n Nearly 90% of the job growth in Canada since 1967 has taken place in the services sector, with business services experiencing some of the fastest growth rates. n IT sector is one area experiencing growth

7. Labour Market Models The Jelly Doughnut u increasing number of non-standard jobs

8. Jelly Doughnut The doughnut model is so named because jobs in the labour market can be defined as core (the jelly centre of the doughnut) or peripheral (the outer layer). Core jobs can be described as those that are full-time, full-year, with good benefits and some career prospects. The usual employer is a large firm or government. The doughnut model is so named because jobs in the labour market can be defined as core (the jelly centre of the doughnut) or peripheral (the outer layer). Core jobs can be described as those that are full-time, full-year, with good benefits and some career prospects. The usual employer is a large firm or government.

9. Labour Market Models Layer Cake Layer Cake u decreasing demand for middle level jobs B.C. Job Futures web site Futures web site

10. Layer Cake n Bottom Layer u entry level jobs, minimum wage u there is a continuing expectation for a high wage job among the inexperienced and lesser-skilled workers is resulting in both unfilled service jobs and more unemployment. n Middle Layer u excess of supply and no demand u usually have experience or education but no specific marketable skill n Top Layer u highly marketable skill, high demand, short supply u Employers prefer not to substitute down

11. Trends n Rise of small businesses with 20+ employees n rapid increase self-employment. n Impact on secretarial and support staff n 64% of the jobs in the year 2000 will require more than a Grade 12 vs. 44% of existing jobs.

12. Skills (typewriter vs. computer) n Generic Skills for Employability u people who can communicate u people who can think and who show a willingness to continue to learn throughout their lives u people who can demonstrate positive attitudes and behavior, responsibility and adaptability, and u people who can work with others n Mathematical skills, basic computer literacy, entrepreneurial personality

13. Doomsayers n The sky is falling! n All bad things stem from IT. n In the old days, …. n Internet is junk (who cares that 40%* of people now use it from home) n End of public libraries (as we know them) *1998 Survey of Household Internet Use showed 35% usage, 40% usage is extrapolated based on growth trend from 1997 to1998.

14. Pollyanna n Technology is great n Look at this new cool “dancing baby” site n If you’re not wired, your passe n The library is better than ever before

15. Changing Environment n Relearn your job every 2-3 years n New skills n Elimination of jobs n New opportunities ?? "In the absence of the old containers [books], almost everything we think we know about intellectual property is wrong. We are going to have to unlearn it. We are going to have to look at information as though we'd never seen the stuff before.”

16. Specific Library IT Roles n Computer Operator n System Operator n Programmer n Public Relations & Communications n Web development, Graphic Designers and Illustrating Artists n Computer Consultants n Trainers

17. New Job - Data Library Assistant n No one would have the qualifications n Actually had 3 pretty good applicants and some others with strength

18. Public Sectors Organizations Struggle to Survive n Tax dollars are hard to find n Competitors: bookstores, internet services n Customer Service has been reinvented in the 1990’s

19. Ask yourself? n Did library workers build the search engines? u Yahoo? n Did library workers build the biggest library on the web? u No Amazon did. n It’s 12:00, do we know where our users are?

20. Ask ourselves what is a library in 1999? n Is it bricks and mortar? Or was it bricks and mortar?

21. What has IT really meant for Library jobs? n Initially, 1970s and 1980s no real productivity gains, just papering over n 1990’s - new products, new services - reinventing libraries - reorganizations are rampant - reorganizations are rampant - downsizing - downsizing - outsourcing - outsourcing - “information age” - “information age”

22. Trends n Disintermediation u (self service) u self charge u holds n Personalization n Competition u how long until “lending” comes back u Internet (friend or foe) n New Products n Constant Change

23. Trends n Consortium n Revenue Generation n Partnerships Whole new vocabularies - just in time, document delivery, HTTP, thin clients,

24. Success look like n If libraries are successful, they will adapt and find a niche in this new order n Value and Service EATONS VS CANADIAN TIRE

25. Value Based Service n Obstacles: our library vendors are not with the program n Our cultures are behind the times n What does our management team look like?

26. Libraries: What This Means Together we are facing an incredible challenge with the changing economy. As library workers it is both an exciting time and frightening time. Keep the public in the public library!