1. 16 th April 2008 Energy Outlook View of an International Oil Company Thierry PFLIMLIN President & CEO Total Oil Asia-Pacific Pte Ltd 2 nd ARF Seminar on Energy Security

2. 2 16th April 2008 Severe imbalances in world wealth and energy Russia and FSU 4 600 $ / capita 3,6 tep / capita Latin America* 5 400 $ / capita 1,1 tep / capita Africa 1 100 $ / capita 0,7 tep / capita Europe 34 600 $ / capita 3,8 tep / capita North America* 43 700 $ / capita 7,9 tep / capita Middle East 4 900 $ / capita 2,7 tep / capita Japan & Pacific OECD 30 400 $ / capita 4,5 tep / capita China 2 000 $ / capita 1,5 tep / capita India 800 $ / capita 0,6 tep / capita Source: IEA Balances, Total projection. IMF GDP current $. * North America : US + Canada, Latin America includes Mexico Average GDP : 7 500 $ / capita Average annual consumption of energy : 1,8 tep / capita Year 2006

3. 3 16th April 2008 Population and economy transforming the 2030 map Source : UN, world population prospects, 2006. IEA. Total OECDNon-OECD Energy demandGDP (at exchange rates) Trillions (2000$) 20 40 60 80 198020052030 2.8% 4.9% 2.2% Population Average growth/year 2005-2030 1% 2 4 6 8 10 198020052030 Billions 1.2% 0.2% MBoe/d 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 198020052030 1.2% 1.8% 1.7% 0.6%

4. 4 16th April 2008 80% of the energy mix still derived from fossil fuels in 2030 World energy demand* Million boe/day Renewables (including hydro & biomass) Nuclear Coal Gas Oil * Primary energy Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 and Total + 0.8% / year 2015-2030 + 1.8% / year 2005-2015 + 1,8% / year + 1,2% / year 1980 152 43 % 17 % 25 % 13 % 3 % 65 26 37 4 20 2005 244 35 % 21 % 25 % 13 % 6 % 84 52 62 15 31 2030 328 30 % 22 % 27 % 6 % 15 % 79 % 100 73 87 19 49

5. 5 16th April 2008 A supply forecast barely reaching 100 Mb/d… Oil demand and supply forecast(*) Total demand forecast Mb/d Natural gas liquids Crude oil including heavy oil GTL, CTL (*): excluding biofuels Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 and Total 40 60 80 100 200520102015202020252030

6. 6 16th April 2008 …as a result of OPEC influence and the complexity of new projects Sources: IEA, Total Tight market fueling a high price environment Breakeven oil price of new projects in $/bbl Oil resources in billion barrels Oil need from 2005 to 2030 80 60 40 1000 2000 3000 20 OPEC Middle East Other Conventional Deep water Ultra deep water Enhanced Recovery Heavy oil Arctic

7. 7 16th April 2008 Greenhouse gas emissions: the major issue for sustainable growth CO 2 emissions by sectorCO 2 emissions : Potential savings Gton CO 2 Demand efficiency measures Improved efficiency in the Power sector Increased Renewables Increased Nuclear 65% 12% 13% 10% IEA Alternative policy scenario IEA Reference scenario 26 30 34 38 42 20052010201520202025 2030 5 10 15 20 199020052030 Power generation Industry Transport Residential and services Other Gton CO 2