1. 4.0 Fuel Usage (Combustibles) Frank R. Leslie, B. S. E. E., M. S. Space Technology 1/25/2010, Rev. 2.0.1 fleslie @fit.edu; (321) 674-7377 www.fit.edu/~fleslie

2. 4.0 Overview Currently, energy comes primarily from combustion of fossil fuels or nuclear energy Electricity and hydrogen are energy carriers, not sources! In some areas of the World, wind energy is being significantly developed: Europe, United States, Denmark, Sweden, Germany, India, China are a few Energy sources are so critical to civilizations that many wars have been fought over the supplies Lack of common local energy sources can hold back the development of a nation 100119

3. 4.0.1 About This Presentation 4.1 Energy Consumption 4.2 Energy Flows 4.3 State Fuel Consumption 4.4 Fuel Declines 4.5 Degree-days 4.6 CAISO, an ISO 4.7 Energy Diversity 4.8 What’s a Fuel? 4.9 Energy Selection and Countries 4.10 Predictions for 2050 4.11 Conclusion 060118

4. Figure 1. Energy Consumption by Source, 1635 -2000 (Quadrillion Btu) http://www.eia.doe.gov/aer/eh/frame.html 050116

5. 4.1 Energy Demand Trends The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides extensive graphs and tables about energy  Visit them at www.eia.doe.govwww.eia.doe.gov Oil predominates, NG is gaining, coal climbs steadily, renewables continue to gain slowly, nuclear leveling off (might change) 060116 http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/press/00-05-1.gif

6. 4.1.1 EIA Figure 33. US Energy Consumption History and Outlook http://www.eia.doe.gov/aer/eh/frame.html 060115

7. 4.1.2 Energy Price Trends Note forecast prices can vary Actuals for 2010 were about $74/bbl On Jan 18 2006, price was about $65.80/bbl; 1/16/2008, ~$91 Note the inflation adjustment to 2006 prices --- very important for good decisions 100126 http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/press/images/2007-11-1.gif

8. 4.2 2008 US Energy Flows from EIA 060115 http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec1_3.pdf Quadrillion Btu, or “Quads”

9. 4.3 US States Fuel Consumption 060115 http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec1_14.pdf

10. 4.4 The Hubbert Curve Predicts Fossil Fuel Decline Dr. M. King Hubbert, geophysicist, published his prediction that the US oil peak would be reached in 1970. Later, others predicted the World oil peak would occur in the first decade of the 21st Century. Past the production peak, oil prices will increase as extraction becomes more difficult and the price is bid up. www.hubbertpeak.com/midpoint.htm 050111 From Wikipedia

11. Millions of years of incoming solar energy were captured in the form of coal, oil, and natural gas; current usage thus exceeds the rate of original production (0.02%) Coal may last 200-400 years; estimates vary greatly; not as useful for transportation due to thermal losses in converting to convenient liquid “synfuel” We can conserve energy by reducing loads power or time used and through increased efficiency in generating, transmitting, and using energy Efficiency and conservation will delay an energy crisis, leaving more for later but will not prevent it 100126 4.4.1 The Eventual Decline of Fossil Fuels

12. 4.5 Degree-Days The January map from ClimateSource below shows degree-days of heating required. Degree-days are computed as the temperature difference from 65 degrees F (I’d prefer 75F) When the temperature changes, increased heating or air conditioning increases the electrical power demand Oil dealers use computed degree-days to deliver to home tanks before the oil runs out 080116 Ref.: ClimateSource

13. 4.6 CAISO, the California System Operator This power curve is from Tuesday, 1/26/2010 CAISO, the California Independent System Operator, buys and sells power Low consumption at 3 a.m., a modest peak at 9 a.m., and a sharp rise at 6 p.m. Why? The top green line is the maximum power (32 GW) that the system can generate 100126 http://www.caiso.com/outlook/SystemStatus.html 1/11/2003

14. 4.7 Energy Diversity Next Era Energy (was FPL Energy) has resources across the US that are heavily invested in wind and solar energy Large energy companies like BP and Shell are pursuing renewable energy development Utilities often obtain energy from unconventional sources 100126 Conlon, Oregon (photo by F. Leslie)

15. 4.7.1 Energy Diversity for US The US uses a greater average % of coal (52%) versus 6% in Florida 100125 http://www.eia.doe.gov/aer/eh/frame.html Florida

16. Bolivia Inti - France has also been very active in training personnel from several African NGOs about the benefits of solar ovens and other alternative cooking devices such as wood efficient stoves and retained heat cookers. Bolivia Inti's President Robert Chiron and others during a public demonstration in Nantes, France 040120 http://solarcooking.org/celebrate-solarcooking.htm 4.8 Is Solar Energy a Fuel? “Not Exactly”

17. 4.8.1 Fuel Specific Heat Energy Fuels are burned in direct combustion with air Various fuels have differing values of heat when burned The energy density of these fuels is important in determining how they will be used Wind and solar energies are diffuse or less dense than burning the top surface of a fuel in a shallow pan  Wind power density varies from zero to kilowatts of power/m 2 by cube of wind speed  Solar module power output varies from zero to ~300 watts/m 2, while typically it is 150 W/m 2 (at 15% efficiency)  Wave power varies from zero to ~90 kW/meter of wave front around the World 100126

18. 4.8.1 Fuel Heat Capacity Zerban, 1964 100125 Douglas fir9050 Btu/lb Fuel Oil140 000 Btu/gal Coal15 000 Btu/lb Natural Gas1000 Btu/cu ft Propane, C 3 H 8 21 690 Btu/cu ft Butane, C 4 H 10 21 340 Btu/cu ft Bagasse7985 Btu/cu ft Gasoline20 200 Btu/cu ft Kerosene19 900 Btu/cu ft One Btu

19. 4.8.2 Fuel for Transportation Transportation of fuels is determined by economics  If a closer fuel cost plus the transportation cost is less, that closer fuel is likely to be used Coal is usually transported by train or ship, although locally, it is sometimes carried by dump trucks for home heating While oil flows through pipelines or is brought by double-hulled tankers, the military hauls jet fuel by tanker aircraft to refuel other aircraft in flight  The cost of air transport exceeds that of the raw fuel on the ground! 080116

20. 4.8.3 Iraqi military burns wells in Kuwait http://www.users.cloud9.net/~bradmcc/cgi-bin/vuImag3.pl?i=167 Copyright © 2001-2002 Brad McCormick, Ed.D. Copyright © 050111

21. 4.8.4 An Iranian View of the Iraq Situation September 18, 2002 The Iranian If and when it happens, an invasion of Iraq will be the seventh oil war in some 50 years. Wars are largely violent struggles for material and symbolic resources. They also demonstrate the failure of human imagination to find peaceful solutions to their problems. Resorting to war is easy. Peace building is difficult. 050111

22. 4.8.5 Fuel Availability and Military Action President Roosevelt imposed an oil embargo on Japan that led to the Pearl Harbor attack of Dec. 7, 1941  For three previous years, the US supplied 50% of Japan’s oil while she conquered much of China Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1991, and the US Coalition responded to protect oil interests (and World peace)  The late Saddam Hussein ordered the burning of oil wells as his forces retreated and the spilling of oil into the Gulf: two environmental disasters The US military is in Iraq again in 2005-10; the US buys little oil from Iraq, but it’s a global market with worldwide interaction 100121

23. 4.9 Optimal energy selection and use Energy source selection is based primarily on price Price varies with availability and World commodity markets, but psychology is a strong factor A common petroleum indicator is “Light Sweet Crude” on the NYMEX commodity exchange; was ~$38 on 1/14/2009 (Sweet means it is low in sulfur; the old- time geologists actually tasted it!) Energy trading is how utilities find additional energy to buy if they run short In some states, consumers can choose the source of energy they prefer; there may be a premium There may be a market for energy brokering services 090114

24. 4.9.1 Bolivian Energy Most energy is from hydroelectric plants Oil use exceeds production; imports half the diesel oil needed There is an active solar energy market developing Proposed natural gas exports led to President’s replacement Chile wouldn’t allow pipelines to cross anyway (war of 1879) 100125 http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/bolivia.html Oct 2003 EIA report

25. 4.9.2 India Energy Uses 14 quadrillion Btus, of which Coal (52%), Oil (34%), Natural Gas (7%), Hydroelectricity (5%), Nuclear (1%), Other Renewables (0%) [EIA, 2003] Oil consumption is increasing beyond production! Home of Suzlon wind turbines 090114 http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/India/Oil.html

26. 4.9.3 Panamanian Energy Most energy is imported (70%), primarily as petroleum  1999 production was 0.0335 Quads; consumption was 0.1463 Quads; imported oil is used  1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTUs There are some hydro systems (70% of energy) Only imported coal Electricity is primarily from thermal burn; next is hydro 0.045 B kWh imported; 0.095 B kWh exported; 0.341 B kWh is lost in transmission lines! 050116 http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/ntl24027.htm

27. 4.9.3.1 Panama Fuel Information http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ world/country/cntry_PM.html 050116 Negligible hydrocarbon; imports 70% of energy Hydro produces 70% of energy; 300 MW ~1.7% of US oil dependent on Panama Canal [EIA}

28. 4.9.4 South Africa South Africa has a highly developed synthetic fuels industry supported by abundant coal resources, offshore natural gas and condensate production in Mossel Bay, and natural gas imports from Mozambique. Sasol, with a capacity of 160,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) from coal-to-liquids (CTL), and PetroSA, with a capacity of 45,000 bbl/d from gas to liquids (GTL), are the major producers of synthetic fuel in South Africa. Together, the two firms supply approximately 40 percent of the South African fuels market. 080116 http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/South_Africa/Oil.html

29. 4.10 Energy Considerations for 2050 Fossil-fuel energy will deplete in the future; being used faster than made and price rises US oil production peaked about 1974; world energy will likely peak about 2004-9 Renewable energy will eventually become mandatory, and our lifestyles may change Transition to renewable energy (or nonfossil hydrogen) must occur well before a fuel crisis occurs 100126

30. 4.10.1 My Predictions for 2050 I predict that energy prices will be much higher in 2050, as energy becomes more costly to extract and increased antipollution costs are passed on to the consumer In some states, more nuclear plants will be placed in operation while in others, nuclear plants will be closed  These changes will be primarily politically driven Coal will continue to be a primary source in coal mining states, while wind energy will be greatly developed where winds are strong enough for economic use Overseas, offshore wind farms will provide much of the power, while fossil fuels will fall in use due to their price Fossil fuel lifetimes will increase because it’s so expensive that use will decline; it then lasts longer Cars and trucks may be plug-in hybrids for most of us 100121

31. 4.11 Fuels Conclusion Fuel usage is determined by cost and convenience High fuel density is critical for transportation Low costs of fossil fuels and nuclear energy will keep these in predominance for several decades, but wind energy is close to coal cost Renewable energy provides small contributions to total now, but will increase as transition is made 090114

32. Olin Engineering Complex 4.7 kW Solar PV Roof Array 080116 Questions?

33. References: Books Zerban, Alexander and Edwin Nye. Power Plants. Scranton: International Textbook Co., 655 pp., 1964. Brower, Michael. Cool Energy. Cambridge MA: The MIT Press, 1992. 0-262-02349-0, TJ807.9.U6B76, 333.79’4’0973. Duffie, John and William A. Beckman. Solar Engineering of Thermal Processes. NY: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 920 pp., 1991 Gipe, Paul. Wind Energy for Home & Business. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green Pub. Co., 1993. 0-930031-64-4, TJ820.G57, 621.4’5 Patel, Mukund R. Wind and Solar Power Systems. Boca Raton: CRC Press, 1999, 351 pp. ISBN 0-8493-1605-7, TK1541.P38 1999, 621.31’2136 Sørensen, Bent. Renewable Energy, Second Edition. San Diego: Academic Press, 2000, 911 pp. ISBN 0-12-656152-4. 050116

34. References: Websites, etc. 050111 www.eia.doe.govwww.eia.doe.gov Comprehensive statistical site on energy usage http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/world/country/cntry_PM.html http://hnn.us/articles/89.htmlhttp://hnn.us/articles/89.htmlHistory News Network http://www.soton.ac.uk/~engenvir/environment/water/oil.gulf.war.html http://www.users.cloud9.net/~bradmcc/cgi-bin/vuImag3.pl?i=167 http://www.iranian.com/MajidTehranian/2002/September/Oil/http://www.iranian.com/MajidTehranian/2002/September/Oil/Iranian webpage http://www.hubbertpeak.com/debate/energy50.htm http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/security/esar/esar.html http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/plugs/plhotsp.htmlhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/plugs/plhotsp.htmlEIA World Energy Watch (great reference) ____________________________________________________________ awea-windnet@yahoogroups.com. Wind Energy elist awea-wind-home@yahoogroups.com. Wind energy home powersite elist geothermal.marin.org/ on geothermal energy mailto:energyresources@egroups.com rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-01m.html PNNL wind energy map of CONUS windenergyexperimenter@yahoogroups.com. Elist for wind energy experimenters www.dieoff.org. Site devoted to the decline of energy and effects upon population www.ferc.gov/ Federal Energy Regulatory Commission www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/ert/otec_hi.html#anchor349152 on OTEC systems telosnet.com/wind/20th.html www.google.com/search?q=%22renewable+energy+course%22 solstice.crest.org/ dataweb.usbr.gov/html/powerplant_selection.html

35. Slide stockpile follows! Older slides follow this one. Look at these if you have interest or time. It’s difficult to decide what to leave out of the lecture to save time!

36. Outtakes follow Some slides may be placed past this point as they became somewhat older or situations have changed