1. 1 Making Aviation Safer: Results of the National Aviation Weather Program’s 10-Year Goal to Reduce Weather- Related Accidents by 80 Percent Jud Stailey, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology October 9, 2008 Friends/Partners of Aviation Weather

2. 2 Overview Background Mid-Course Assessment Final Assessment –FAR Definitions –Hazard Categories –Ten-year Trends –By Hazard Category Way Ahead Courtesy of Wings of Alaska Airlines © Mike Mastin Courtesy of AOPA © AOPA Courtesy of Southwest Airlines Courtesy of NATA © NATA Courtesy of Air Ambulance Specialists, Inc.

3. 3 Background NRC – Aviation Weather Services – A Call for Federal Leadership and Action – 1995 White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security – 1997 –Goal: Reduce fatal accidents by 80% in 10 years National Aviation Weather Program (NAWP) Strategic Plan – 1997 NAWP Initiatives – 1999 Programs/Projects –Baseline – 2001 –Update – 2003 –Update – 2004

4. 4 Mid-Course Assessment - 2003 Included accident data 1996-2001 Established trends for all weather-related and fatal weather-related accidents Reviewed status of programs/projects in context of accident trends Conclusions & Recommendations Sustaining risk reduction success in general aviation Further analysis into impact of weather hazards on smaller commercial carriers Reducing risk from turbulence and convection hazards Reducing risk from high density altitude Sustaining investment in programs/projects for near-term improvements Sustaining investment in R&D to continue longer-term improvements Focus areas to move forward Significant progress toward 10-year goal!

5. 5 Final Assessment Received final NTSB accident data through 2006 in Spring 2008 Analysis of the full ten years using same approach used in the Mid- Course Assessment

6. 6 Final Assessment Categories of aviation operations were considered separately: Part 91: All aviation other than military or commercial Part 121: Major passenger airlines and cargo carriers that fly large transport-category aircraft in revenue service Part 135: Scheduled passenger service in aircraft with fewer than ten seats and nonscheduled operations—revenue-earning flights in which the departure time, departure location and destination are negotiated with the customer

7. 7 Final Assessment Hazard Categories: Restricted Visibility and Ceiling (7) Precipitation (non-icing) (3) Icing Conditions (4) Turbulence and Convection (17) Temperature and Lift (6) En Route and Terminal Winds (4) Electrical (2) Airborne solids (2)

8. 8 Accident Trends Significant progress in meeting the 10-year accident reduction goal RATE TRENDS Part 91:All Part 121: Part 135 Fatal Wx-relatedAll causes 17% 63% 7% 49% 33%30%23%37% Fatal All

9. 9 Part 91 Aviation, Weather-Related Accidents per 100,000 Flight-Hours 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 19961997199819992000200120022003200420052006 Year Accidents per 100,000 Flight-Hours All weather-related accidentsWeather-related fatal 2006 goal = 0.08 2006 trend = 0.23 2006 goal = 0.34 2006 trend = 1.12

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12. 12 Part 91, Trend for Category A, Restricted Visibility and Ceiling Hazards 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 19961997199819992000200120022003200420052006 Year Fatal AccidentsAll Accidents 2006 goal = 0.10 2006 trend = 0.21 2006 goal = 0.08 2006 trend = 0.18 Weather Factor Cites per 100,000 Flight-Hours

13. 13 Part 91, Trend for Category D, Turbulence and Convection Hazards 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 19961997199819992000200120022003200420052006 Year Fatal AccidentsAll Accidents Weather Factor Cites per 100,000 Flight-Hours 2006 goal = 0.15 2006 trend = 0.41 2006 goal = 0.02 2006 trend = 0.05

14. 14 Part 91, Trend for Category F, En Route and Terminal Winds 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 19961997199819992000200120022003200420052006 Year Fatal AccidentsAll Accidents Weather Factor Cites per 100,000 Flight-Hours 2006 goal = 0.16 2006 trend = 0.47 2006 goal = 0.015 2006 trend = 0.022

15. 15 Part 121: Trends for all weather hazards andfor turbulence & convection hazards 0.000 0.020 0.040 0.060 0.080 0.100 0.120 0.140 0.160 0.180 0.200 19961997199819992000200120022003200420052006 Year AllTurbulence and convection hazards 2006 goal = 0.025 2006 trend = 0.084 2006 goal = 0.023 2006 trend = 0.077 Weather Factor Cites per 100,000 Departures

16. 16 The Way Ahead Continue to collect and analyze annual data Investigate timing and potential effectiveness of programs/projects in light of trends (including those completed before 1997) Consider continuing to identify and track programs/ projects Objective: Sustain progress to date, remove barriers to reducing accident rates further, and provide an effective system for NextGen transition.

17. 17 BACKUP SLIDES

18. 18 NTSB Factors and Weather Categories Restricted visibility and ceiling: Below approach/landing mins Clouds Fog Haze/smoke Low ceiling Obscuration Whiteout Precipitation (non-icing): Rain Snow Drizzle/mist Icing conditions: Icing conditions Ice fog Freezing rain Carburetor icing Turbulence and convection: Turbulence (thunderstorm) Thunderstorm Thunderstorm outflow Microburst (dry) Microburst (wet) Updraft Downdraft Gusts Wind shear Dust Devil/Whirlwind Variable wind Sudden wind shift Mountain Wave Turbulence Turbulence, clear air Turbulence in clouds Turbulence (terrain induced)

19. 19 NTSB Factors and Weather Categories (Cont’d) Temperature and lift: Temperature inversion High density altitude Temperature, high Temperature, low Thermal lift No thermal lift En route and terminal winds: Unfavorable wind Crosswind Tail wind High wind Electrical: Lightning Static discharge Airborne solids: Sand/dust storm Hail

20. 20 National Aviation Weather Program Strat Plan Initiatives User Forum Training Mid-Course Assessment Volc Ash Conference Programs & Projects Update 19971998199920002001200220032004

21. NBAA Weather Panel Orlando, Florida October 9, 2008 Steve Hansen National Air Traffic Controllers Association 1325 Massachusetts Ave NW Washington, DC 20005

22. 22 ATC DUTY PRIORITY a. Give first priority to separating aircraft and issuing safety alerts as required b. Provide support to national security and homeland defense activities c. Provide additional services to the extent possible, contingent only upon higher priority duties and other factors including limitations of radar, volume of traffic, frequency congestion, and workload.

23. 23 ATC SERVICE …The provision of additional services (includes weather advisories) is not optional on the part of the controller, but rather is required when the work situation permits…

24. 24 Issue pertinent information on observed or reported weather. Provide radar navigational guidance and/or approve deviations around weather or chaff areas when requested by the pilot. Issue the level of echo intensity when that information is available. When a deviation cannot be approved as requested and the situation permits, suggest an alternative course of action. ATC Requirements

25. 25 Important Things to Remember Any additional service, such as weather avoidance assistance, can only be provided to the extent that it does not take away from ATC’s primary function of providing safe separation between aircraft. To a large degree, the assistance that might be rendered by ATC will depend upon the weather information available to controllers. Due to the extremely transitory nature of severe weather situations, the controller's weather information may be of only limited value if based on weather observed on radar only. Frequent updates by pilots giving specific information as to the area affected, altitudes, intensity and nature of the severe weather can be of considerable value.

26. 26 Controllers want YOU to avoid weather Controllers want YOU to avoid weather Do not assume ATC will automatically keep you clear of weather Do not assume ATC will automatically keep you clear of weather Depending on aircraft type, controller may assume you have weather radar Depending on aircraft type, controller may assume you have weather radar Ask EACH controller about weather avoidance services Ask EACH controller about weather avoidance services Keys to Dealing With ATC

27. 27 ATC Terms & Phraseology “Precipitation” - used to describe radar derived weather information LIGHT, MODERATE, HEAVY, EXTREME ENROUTE – MODERATE, HEAVY, EXTREME "Heavy to Extreme precipitation between ten o'clock and two o'clock, one five miles. Precipitation area is two five miles in diameter."

28. 28 ATC Terms & Phraseology Correct Phraseology: “Deviation approved, up to 15 degrees right of course, advise when able to proceed direct XXX.” Phraseology that you often hear: “Deviation approved, up to 15 degrees right of course, proceed direct XXX when able or when clear of the weather.” “Direct when able” trap: Controller gives “proceed direct XXX when able” or “when clear of the weather”, and pilot assumes they are clear of the weather.

29. 29 Thunderstorms Turbulence Turbulence Hail Hail Rain Rain Snow Snow Lightning Lightning Sustained updrafts/downdrafts Sustained updrafts/downdrafts Icing Icing

30. 30 ATC and NEXRAD NEXRAD available to ATC, but…. Different adaptation schemes Major terminals integrate NEXRAD –more colors than centers Centers integrate NEXRAD – three colors Flight Service Stations use NEXRAD, but use pilot reports for position and planned route

31. 31 NEXRAD Sites

32. 32 CONUS NEXRAD Coverage

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34. 34 ATC Weather Displays Only show precipitation Weather updates are 5 to 8 minutes old Approach control displays STARS is digital – NEXRAD is integrated Old CRT’s with primary WX Center display DSR is digital – NEXRAD is integrated

35. 35 ENROUTE WX Display

36. 36 Terminal WX Display (STARS) Courtesy of Raytheon

37. 37 ITWS (Integrated Terminal WX System) Courtesy of Raytheon

38. 38 PIREPS – An Important Tool PIREPS are used to develop hazardous WX avoidance plans, and to assist ATC in providing a safe expeditious flow of air traffic. FAA air traffic facilities are required to solicit PIREPs when the following conditions are reported or forecast: Ceilings at or below 5,000 Visibility at or below 5 miles Thunderstorms and related phenomena Icing of light degree or greater Turbulence of moderate degree or greater Wind shear Reported or forecast volcanic ash clouds.

39. 39 “Safety breakdowns are the product of good people trying to make sense of an operationally confusing context, rather than the product of bad people making errors….” “Safety breakdowns are the product of good people trying to make sense of an operationally confusing context, rather than the product of bad people making errors….” Bert Ruitenberg Bert Ruitenberg IFATCA Human Factor Specialist IFATCA Human Factor Specialist

40. 40 Summary Radar available to ATC can only “see” precipitation ATC guidance for WX avoidance – vague at best Some controllers provide better WX info than others – expect inconsistency NEVER assume controllers are providing WX avoidance services – ask each controller! Worse case scenario: You think ATC is providing WX avoidance services at the same time ATC thinks you are avoiding WX on your own – in fact NOBODY IS!!!