1. Development of a Public Transportation Strategic Plan for Metro Cebu
Engr. Ildefonso T. Patdu, Jr.
Director, Project Development Service
Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC)
Cebu City BRT Studies Coordination Conference
May 9, 2009
Park Lane Hotel, Archbishop Reyes Ave. and Escario St., Cebu City

2. Outline Background: Metro Cebu Transport Strategy Role of DOTC
Objectives of the Project
Project Activities
Schedule of Activities

3. Background: Metro Cebu
Metro Cebu is composed of four (4) cities of Cebu, Mandaue, Lapu-Lapu and Talisay, and the six (6) adjacent municipalities of Naga, Minglanilla, Liloan, Consolacion, Cordova and Compostela
Defined in the 1994 Cebu Integrated Area Development Master Plan Study (CIADMPS)
It is the country’s second international gateway and has the second largest urban area in the Philippines

5. High Population Growth
Over the years, the metropolitan area has been experiencing a rapid growth in population and an increasing level of urbanization
From a total of 1,693,881 persons reported in 2000, the population of Metro Cebu has increased to over 2 million in 2007, registering a 2.8% population growth rate for the period

6. Population Growth Rate
Population of Metro Cebu for the Years 2000 and 2007
City/ Municipality
Population
Population Growth Rate
2000
% Share
2007
Cebu City
718,821
42.44%
798,809
38.97%
1.52%
Mandaue City
259,728
15.33%
318,575
15.54%
2.96%
Lapu-Lapu City
217,019
12.81%
292,530
14.27%
4.36%
Talisay City
148,110
8.74%
179,359
8.75%
2.77%
Naga
80,189
4.73%
95,163
4.64%
2.48%
Minglanilla
77,268
4.56%
101,585
4.96%
3.99%
Liloan
64,970
3.84%
92,181
4.50%
5.12%
Consolacion
62,298
3.68%
87,544
4.27%
4.98%
Cordova
34,032
2.01%
45,066
2.20%
4.09%
Compostela
31,446
1.86%
39,167
1.91%
3.19%
Total
1,693,881
100.00%
2,049,979
Ave
2.76%
Source: Draft EST Casebook (2008), UP-NCTS
The share of Cebu City’s population to Metro Cebu decreased from 53% of the total population in 1970 to 42% and 39% in 2000 and 2007, respectively. Among the component cities and municipalities of Metro Cebu, Cebu City itself had a decelerating growth rate for the past three decades while the adjoining cities and municipalities were growing comparatively faster

7. Increasing Use of Private Mode
The increasing level of urbanization is accompanied by a corresponding shift in the preferred mode of transportation from public to private transport
The share of trips using private modes at the 1979 level of 9.7% has increased to 20.6% by the year 1992, while the share of public transport has decreased from its previous level of 90.3% to 79.4% during the same period
Contributes to worsening traffic congestion and increasing air pollution levels

8. Motor Vehicle Registration in Cebu
In , Cebu City’s share ranged from 40 to 55% of the total vehicles registered in Cebu Province. From 1994 to 2000, motor vehicle registration in Cebu City tremendously increased by 42.1%, with an average annual growth rate of 7.0% while the increment in 2000 to 2006 was halved to 21.4% or an average annual growth rate of 3.6%.
Source: Draft EST Casebook (2008), UP-NCTS
In , Cebu City’s share ranged from 40 to 55% of the total vehicles registered in Cebu Province. From 1994 to 2000, motor vehicle registration in Cebu City tremendously increased by 42.1%, with an average annual growth rate of 7.0% while the increment in 2000 to 2006 was halved to 21.4% or an average annual growth rate of 3.6%.

9. Metro Cebu Travel Demand , 1979-2020
Mode
1979
1992
2012*
2020*
Private
110,500
9.7%
305,666
20.6%
515,416
17.1%
989,910
23.5%
Public
1,028,900
90.3%
1,180,408
79.4%
2,492,066
82.9%
3,229,717
76.5%
Total
1,139,400
100.0
1,486,074
3,007,482
4,219,627
Trip Rate
1.10
1.26
1.54
1.61
Notes: *projected using regression
Source: Cebu City CLUP (2000)
Based on the 1979 Metro Cebu Land Use and Transport Study (MCLUTS) report and the 1992 Home Interview Supplemental Survey conducted by the Metro Cebu Development Project (MCDP) Phase 3, the Metro Cebu Trip Demand Projection estimated that the share of trips using the private modes increased from 9.7% in 1979 to 20.6% in 1992 while the share of trips using public transport decreased from 90.3% in 1979 to 79.4% in 1992.
Based on the 1979 Metro Cebu Land Use and Transport Study (MCLUTS) report and the 1992 Home Interview Supplemental Survey conducted by the Metro Cebu Development Project (MCDP) Phase 3, the Metro Cebu Trip Demand Projection estimated that the share of trips using the private modes increased from 9.7% in 1979 to 20.6% in 1992 while the share of trips using public transport decreased from 90.3% in 1979 to 79.4% in 1992.

10. Annual Average TSP Level (ug TSP/N cu. m) in Selected Stations
in Metro Cebu
Source: Draft EST Casebook (2008), UP-NCTS
In , all stations were observed to exceed the 1-year ambient air quality guideline value for TSP of 90 mcg/N. cu. m. with peak concentrations occurring in In , there has been a slight improvement due to presence of annual average concentration values below the guideline value. Around 1-2 stations still exceed the guideline value. With few available data, the annual average concentrations of PM10 were also obtained and it was observed that there was one station that exceeded the guideline value of 60 mcg/N. cu. m. in This indicates that air pollution is still a continuing problem for the city.
In , all stations were observed to exceed the 1-year ambient air quality guideline value for TSP of 90 mcg/N. cu. m. with peak concentrations occurring in In , there has been a slight improvement due to presence of annual average concentration values below the guideline value. Around 1-2 stations still exceed the guideline value. With few available data, the annual average concentrations of PM10 were also obtained and it was observed that there was one station that exceeded the guideline value of 60 mcg/N. cu. m. in This indicates that air pollution is still a continuing problem for the city.

11. Cost of Air Pollution

12. Cost of Air Pollution
The Philippines Environment Monitor study (World Bank, 2002) quantified the detrimental effect of air pollution on the health, productivity and quality of life into economic values and it estimated that the total cost of the exposure to PM10 in the four cities of Metro Manila, Baguio, Cebu and Davao adds up to over US$430 million.
Among the four cities, Cebu City ranked second to Metro Manila in derived costs, which in 2001, was equivalent to US$16 million.

13. Cost Traffic Congestion

14. Transport Strategy
As a possible strategy to alleviate congestion along the heavy traffic corridors of Metro Cebu and to arrest the increasing level of air pollution in the area, the development and promotion of public transportation is envisioned
It is noted that the last comprehensive transport study for the metropolitan area was the Metro Cebu Land Use and Transport Study (MCLUTS), which was conducted way back in 1978 by the then Ministry of Public Works, Transportation and Communication (MPWTC) with technical assistance from the Government of Australia.

15. Role of DOTC
The Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC) as the lead agency responsible for the promotion of Environmentally Sustainable Transport (EST) intends to support Metro Cebu in the promotion and development of public transportation
DOTC intends to engage the services of a qualified consulting firm for the development of a Public Transportation Strategic Plan for Metro Cebu that will span a planning horizon of up to the year The Plan is expected to provide the blueprint for the development and promotion of public transportation in Metro Cebu within the established planning horizon

16. Role of DOTC
The DOTC moreover intends that the Public Transportation Strategic Plan for Metro Cebu will be developed with the use of sketch planning methodology and tools
The key idea of sketch planning method is to facilitate the generation of alternatives quickly and easily.

17. Sketch Planning Methodology
The methodology shall incorporate both demand-side and supply-side aspects of public transportation that is able to analyze various planning scenarios and perform ‘what-if’ types of analysis
The analysis shall take into consideration existing development plans for Metro Cebu over a planning horizon of 20 years with 2009 as the Base Year.

18. Sketch Planning Methodology
Main features:
Adopting the logic structure of the traditional transportation modeling process;
Limiting the classification of trip purposes (working, schooling, shopping and others) and trip modes (private car, transit and walking);
Setting the appropriate zoning system (grouping of residents and activities) that are consistent with past zoning systems, especially MCLUTS;
Updated network representation with appropriate level of aggregation;
Utilization of past origin-destination (OD) tables as bases for OD table updating; and
Modest model calibration but where practicable employ extensive use of matrix estimation techniques

19. Objectives of the Study
Identify the traffic corridors in the metropolitan area where the promotion and development of public transportation would be most effective in addressing the emerging problems of increasing traffic congestion and air pollution;
Establish and provide the necessary directions and appropriate strategies for the development and promotion of public transportation in Metro Cebu in the short, medium and long term periods;
Generate a shopping list of potential programs and projects for the short, medium and long term planning horizons;

20. Objectives of the Study
Identify list of high priority programs and projects that may be considered by the DOTC and/or other concerned stakeholders;
Establish the relative viability of selected high priority programs and projects for implementation; and
Provide the DOTC a sketch planning methodology and tools for use in future updating of the Plan.

21. Project Activities Compilation and Assessment of Existing Data
Development of a Public Transportation Sketch Planning Methodology
Conduct of Transport and Traffic Surveys
Development of Public Transportation Sketch Planning Tool
Development of a Metropolitan-Wide Public Transportation Strategic Plan
Conduct of Pre-Feasibility Studies for Identified High Priority Projects

22. Schedule of Activities

23. Thank you!