1. Understanding the Basic Elements & Tools of Conflict AnalysisBy
Dr Benjamin A. Aluko

2. Probing Questions Who are you in the context of a Conflict?
What is conflict?
What are the sources of conflicts?
What are the phases of conflicts?
Is conflict desirable?
What are the some of the basic facts about conflict?
What is conflict analysis?
Why do we need a conflict analysis?
When do we do conflict analysis?
What are the key elements of conflict analysis?
What are some of the tools of conflict analysis?
Suggested good practices in conflict analysis

3. Who are you in the context of a conflict?
As a Medical Practitioner VS Patient (Restoring Health) As a Peace Practitioner VS Conflict (Restoring Relationships)

4. What is Conflict? A Layman Perspective: Disagreement, Crisis,
Dispute, killing
Violence, Debate,
Fight, War,
Protest/Riot, Aggression
Confusion, Chaos

5. What is Conflict… cont
Conflict is a form of competitive behaviour between people or groups. It occurs when two or more people compete over perceived or actual goals or limited resources. (Boulding, 1962).
It is ...”a relationship between two or more parties who believe they have incompatible goals” (Kriesberg, 1973).

6. What are the Sources of Conflict?
CAUSATIVE FACTORS
STRUCTURAL FACTORS
Competition for inadequate (or perceived to be inadequate) resources;
Contradicting value systems;
Psychological needs of groups and individuals;
Manipulation of information. (Albert, I.O. 2001:5-6)
Governance(bad governance);
Economics (lack of economic opportunities);
Security;
Socio-cultural factors.

7. What are the Phases of Conflict?
The pre-conflict phase: This is the period when there is an incompatibility of goals between two or more parties, which could lead to open conflict.
The conflict or crisis phase: In a large scale conflict, this is the period of war, when people on all sides are being killed.
Post-conflict phase: This is the stage when issues are being addressed to promote normal relationships between the parties. In the international context, this phase can be subdivided with labels such as ‘stabilisation; humanitarian; early recovery; ‘peace-building; development.

8. Is Conflict Desirable?
Conflict can be positive or negative depending on the perceptions of parties.
When conflict is constructively managed, it can create an opportunity for positive change.
The outcome of a conflict is determined by the way parties perceive it, which is also a function of its management.

9. What are some of the Basic Facts About Conflict?
Conflict is natural and inevitable
Conflict occurs at all levels human endeavors
Conflict emerges through an interactive process
Conflict can be constructive or destructive
Conflict occurs because parties pursue incompatible interest.
Conflict can be Prevented, Managed or Resolved

10. What is Conflict Analysis?
Conflict analysis is a practical process of examining and understanding the reality of a conflict from a variety of perspectives (Fisher, S. et al, 2000).
Conflict analysis is the systematic study of the profile, causes, actors, and dynamics of conflict. (FEWER/CIDA)

11. Why conflict analysis?
To understand the background and history of the situation as well as current events.
To identify all the relevant groups involved, not just the main or obvious ones
To understand the perspectives of all these groups and to know more about how they relate to each other.
To identify factors and trends that underline conflicts.
To learn from failures as well as successes.

12. When do we Carry Out Conflict Analysis?
“Conflict analysis is most frequently done, as a formal exercise, prior to designing programmes.
Conflict analysis can usefully be done or re- done when there is a significant shift in the dynamics
It may actually be useful to include a ‘revisiting’ of the situational dynamics into the ongoing programme management e.g. in the form of periodic strategic reviews.
Periodically taking stock of ‘what has changed and what has not changed and why’ in one’s operating environment, may help detect and invite reflection on more subtle qualitative changes that have meaning for your intervention and efforts. On-going analysis keeps you in ‘strategic mode rather than just an initial ‘strategic moment’.

13. Elements of Conflict Analysis?
The Conflict Profile:
Causes of Conflict
Actors:
Dynamics

14. Tools of Conflict Analysis
There are many tools often used for analyzing conflicts. Five salient ones are discussed here.
ABC Triangle
Onion/Doughnut Model
Conflict Mapping
Conflict Progression
Conflict Tree

15. ABC Triangle- Basic Assumptions
Every conflict begins with a CAUSE
Once there is a CAUSE, it brings about a –ve change in ATTITUDE.
-ve ATTITUDE gives rise to –ve change in BEHAVIOUR
A wrong BEHAVIOUR leads to more CAUSES.
This cycle of conflict provocations brings about ESCALATION of conflict.

16. CAUSE
ATTITUDE
BEHAVIOR
C3 C2 C1
B1 B2 B3
A3 A2 A1

17. Onion/Doughnut Likens a conflict to an Onion or doughnut with 3 layers
The outer layer is often very tough and thus constitute the POSITION-the claims of parties.
The Inner layers are soft and sweet but difficult to reach.
The NEED is the most important, without which the conflict cannot be resolved.
The exercise involves Trust Building for conflicting parties to agree to share vital information about one another.
A good mediator needs to understand all the perspectives of the conflict.
When parties refuses to share vital information about themselves. It becomes extremely difficult to unravel the NEEDS.

18. Onion/Doughtnut
POSITIONS
INTERESTS
NEEDS

19. Conflict Mapping
Presents in a concise form, the graphic representation of a conflict situation.
Depicts the conflict actors and their power status
Claims of actors
Shows the relationships of actors
Reveals the Shadow parties if any.
Shows the kinds of intervention in place

20. An Example of a Family Dispute
GRD.MOTHER
UNCLE
FATHER
MOTHER
DAUGHT
SON
Strong Relationship
Broken Alliance
Alliance
Discord

21. Liberian Conflict Embezzle- Ment Jail Break Rebel Movt.
Armed Forces of
Liberia
NIGERIA
INPFL
AID
AGENCIES
Mediation
UNO/
ECOMOG
NPFL
Ethnicity
Corruption
H/R ABUSE
DICTATO-
SHIP
LIBYA/B. FASO

22. Conflict Progression Latent:
A pre-conflict stage or emergent stage, when there is incompatibility of goals between two or parties. The conflict is hidden from the general view. Only the primary parties know a conflict exists.
Escalation:
This is a confrontational stage, when the conflict has become obvious. Each parties may be mobilizing resources and perhaps looking for allies. Supporters may begin to engage in demonstrations. Relationships between parties become strained, leading to polarization between supporters of each side.
Crisis
This is the peak of open conflict and large scale conflict when violence is most intense. A high casualty is being recorded on both sides. A call for humanitarian intervention.
De-Escalation
at this stage, the level of tension, confrontation and violence decrease considerably with the possibility of settlement. It may be as a result of one party defeating the other An authority may impose a ceasefire or parties agree to Negotiation or Mediation
Transformation
A period of peace-building and post conflict reconstruction. Rehabilitation and Reconciliation projects become the major challenge

23. Conflict Progression Crisis Conf Esca De-Escalation Escalation
Transformation
Latent
Time

24. Conflict Tree
Leaves
Fruits
Trunk
Root

25. Good Practices in Conflict Analysis
It is important to note that analysing a conflict is not a ‘value-free’ or emotion-free exercise. As a matter of fact, peace-building is a value-based engagement and so you must beware of subjectivity and bias creeping into your analysis. You are better placed to engage all sides and appreciate the situation more clearly, if you engage in your analysis with an open mind.

26. Good Practices of Conflict Analysis…Cont.
You must factor the need to actively review what has been tried before and what worked or did not work, especially if you are not the first one trying to intervene in the conflict, in your analysis.
You must consider the scope of the analysis from the perspective of the realities on the ground and not in terms of your particular interests or circumstances.

27. Good Practices of Conflict Analysis…Cont.
Conflict analysis should also not be a simple expression of the areas of ‘common interest’ of those doing it.
We must also be conscious of the fact that a conflict analysis is not a ‘one off exercise. Good practice implies that periodic updates are planned for to capture effectively the dynamics of the conflict

28. Good Practices of Conflict Analysis…Cont
Conflict analysis is done in participatory or non-participatory ways.
We must also be conscious of the fact that conflict analysis is not only relevant when there is visible violence

29. Thank you
for
Listening