1. MARCH 2010Developed by Agency Human Resource Services, DHRM1 Scenario Planning What Is It? Scenario Planning is a method of business planning in which leaders consider a range of possible “scenarios” and develop plans relevant for each scenario. –These plans include evaluation of key business factors and how changes in these will impact finances, operational needs, employment levels, workforce mix, and organizational structures. –A key component of developing these scenarios is the evaluation of how influencing factors (e.g., technology, government, workforce demographics, etc.) may influence key business factors and subsequent operational needs. The following slides outline a Scenario Planning Model and simplified technique for discussing and creating Scenario Plans.

2. MARCH 2010Developed by Agency Human Resource Services, DHRM2 Scenario Planning Model Workforce Levels & Structure Funding Complexity/Level of Services Unsupported Growth Operations Impact Employment Level Impact Workforce Mix/Structure Impact Resource Investment Operations Impact Employment Level Impact Workforce Mix/Structure Impact Growth Operations Impact Employment Level Impact Workforce Mix/Structure Impact Status Quo or Decline Operations Impact Employment Level Impact Workforce Mix/Structure Impact

3. Scenario Planning Model With Influencing Factors Funding Complexity/Level of Services Unsupported Growth Operations Impact Employment Level Impact Workforce Mix/Structure Impact Resource Investment Operations Impact Employment Level Impact Workforce Mix/Structure Impact Growth Operations Impact Employment Level Impact Workforce Mix/Structure Impact Status Quo or Decline Operations Impact Employment Level Impact Workforce Mix/Structure Impact Workforce Demographics Population changes Generational knowledge Turnover Retirement eligibility Labor Markets Skill availability Geographic positioning Supply & demand Competitiveness Technology Accessibility Evolution Cost Security Government Federal influences Political influences Mandates Other Factors Consider these and other influencing internal & external environmental factors when modeling your potential scenarios:

4. MARCH 2010Developed by Agency Human Resource Services, DHRM4 Scenario Planning Steps (Simplified) 1.Brainstorm the potentials for each scenario. –Think about the implications for each. Think freely – this step isn’t about creating a spreadsheet or financial model or staffing plan. Imagination of “what if” situations is key. –A tool that may help you brainstorm (feel free to use other tools that work for your group): –If appropriate and necessary, break into teams to flush out the specifics of each scenario. Come back to the larger group with a description and summary. –A SWOT Analysis could be used in evaluating the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for each scenario once they are created. 2.Determine a plan for each scenario. –Compare the “current” with the “new.” –Identify gaps and ways to close those gaps. Click here for a Sample SWOT Template

5. MARCH 2010Developed by Agency Human Resource Services, DHRM 1.Provide participants with self-stick notes. 2.Each participant has a set timeframe in which to record on the self-stick notes his/her thoughts about the 3 scenario planning impacts for each quadrant (you may want to do each quadrant separately). The participants post their self-stick notes on a whiteboard or wall. 3.The group begins reviewing and “mapping” or “clustering” like self-stick notes. 4.Once completed, repeat the process addressing the influencing environmental factors. 5.Your end result should be clusters of thoughts/information from which participants can develop detailed plans for each scenario quadrant. Brainstorming Tool Mapping/Clustering: The Basics Click to return to prior slide