1. HF management communication system and link optimization Bruno Zolesi. bruno.zolesi@ingv.it bruno.zolesi@ingv.it Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

2. Ionospheric Mapping and Models for Ionospheric prediction 2SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013 Monthly prediction of the hourly HF set of frequencies over the N radio links given by the network, based on the available ionospheric model and methods. Daily forecasting of the hourly HF set of frequencies based on the mediterranean ionospheric measurements.

3. Ionospheric Mapping and Models for Ionospheric prediction 3SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013 The principal objective of any frequency planner is to predict the useful radio frequencies that could guarantee for a given epoch a point to point radio link. This means that should be predicted the wave band between the so called MUF, the maximum usable frequency, and the LUF, the lower usable frequency. Another important parameter is the area covered by a given frequency around a given transmitter point or the minimum distance from the transmitter reflected by the ionosphere called skip distance.

4. Ionospheric Mapping and Models for Ionospheric prediction 4SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013

5. Ionospheric Mapping and Models for Ionospheric prediction 5SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013 HF area prediction The skip distance is defined as the minimum distance D for which it is possible to establish a radio link for a given frequency f ob and the critical angle of incidence φ 0. For this distance D and this angle of incidence φ 0 the relative frequency f is also the maximum frequency reflected from the ionosphere. If a line is traced around a point of transmission at the same distance as the skip distance, that line is the isoline of the maximum frequency reflected by the ionosphere, or in other words the isoline of a given MUF.

6. 6SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013 Ionospheric Mapping and Models for Ionospheric prediction

7. 7SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013

8. DIAS Web – Maps: Long term prediction 8SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013

9. DIAS Web – Maps: Long term prediction 9SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013

10. 10SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013

11. 11SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013 Examples of local nowcasting maps for foF2 and M(3000)F2 over the Central Mediterranean. (Space Weather Pilot Project, promoted by the European Space Agency at http://www.esa-spaceweather.net/sda/gifint/).http://www.esa-spaceweather.net/sda/gifint/

12. 12SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013 Point to point long term ionospheric prediction for the radio link Roma-Roquetes.

13. 13SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013 Isolines of the now casting (up) and the long term (down) prediction for the MUF and skip distance for the transmission points in Rome at 0700 on April 3th, 2013.

14. 14SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013

15. 15SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013 Monthly Ionospheric Forecasts. October 2013.

16. Ionospheric Mapping and Models for Ionospheric prediction 16SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013

17. Ionospheric Prediction and Forecasting 17SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013 Qui futura cognoscere profitetur, mentitur….

18. Ionospheric Prediction and Forecasting 18SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013 1 Introduction 1.1 Background 1.2 Previous Studies 1.2.1 A Brief History of Ionospheric Measurement 1.2.2 Evolution from Long-Term HF Planning to Nowcasting and Space Weather Applications 1.3 Layout of the Book Suggested Readings 2 The General Structure of the Ionosphere 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Main Sources of Ionization of the Earth’s Upper Atmosphere 2.2.1 Sun and Solar Interactions 2.2.2 The Solar Wind, the Geomagnetic Field, and the Magnetosphere 2.2.3 Solar and Geomagnetic Indices 2.3 General Atmosphere 2.3.1 General Description of the Atmospheric Regions, Composition, and Temperature 2.3.2 Formation of the Earth’s Ionosphere 2.3.3 General Electron Density Profile 2.4 Ionospheric Regions 2.4.1 Regular Ionospheric Regions 2.4.2 Sporadic Ionospheric Layer Es 2.5 Ionospheric Irregularities 2.5.1 Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances 2.5.2 Spread-F Suggested Readings

19. Ionospheric Prediction and Forecasting 19SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013 3 Ionospheric Measurements and Characteristics 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Basic Physical Principles of the Magneto-Ionic Theory 3.2.1 Basic Equations of an Electromagnetic Wave 3.2.2 The Appleton–Hartree Formula 3.3 Vertical and Oblique Incidence Sounding in the Ionosphere 3.3.1 Vertical Incidence Sounding 3.3.2 Oblique and Backscatter Sounding 3.3.3 Ionosondes 3.3.4 Ionograms and Their Interpretation 3.4 Ionospheric Scattering 3.4.1 Incoherent Scatter Radar: EISCAT 3.4.2 Coherent Scatter Radar: SuperDARN 3.5 In-Situ Measurements and Trans-Ionospheric Propagation 3.5.1 Topside Measurements 3.5.2 Ionospheric Sounding with GNSS Signals Suggested Readings 4 Ionospheric Spatial and Temporal Variations 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Geographic and Geomagnetic Variations 4.2.1 High-Latitude Ionosphere 4.2.2 Equatorial Ionosphere 4.3 Daily and Seasonal Variations at Mid-Latitudes 4.3.1 D Region 4.3.2 E and F1 Layers 4.3.3 F2 Layer 4.4 Solar Cycle Variations at Mid-Latitude Suggested Readings

20. Ionospheric Prediction and Forecasting 20SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013 5 Ionospheric Models for Prediction and Forecasting 5.1 Introduction 5.2 The Ionospheric Inverse Problem 5.3 Theoretical and Parameterised Ionospheric Models 5.4 Models of the Electron Density Profile in the Ionosphere 5.4.1 True Height of Peak Density: The Shimazaki Formula and Subsequent Improvements 5.4.2 Bradley and Dudeney Model 5.4.3 International Reference Ionosphere (IRI): Basic Principles and Equations for the Electron Density Profile 5.4.4 The NeQuick Model 5.5 Assimilation Models in the Ionosphere Suggested Readings 6 Ionospheric Prediction for Radio Propagation Purposes 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Long-Term Prediction Maps 6.2.1 Global Prediction Maps 6.2.2 Regional Prediction Maps 6.2.3 Local Single Station Models 6.3 Instantaneous Mapping 6.3.1 Contouring Techniques 6.3.2 Instantaneous Mapping Based on Additional Screen-Point Values 6.4 Nowcasting: Real-Time Ionospheric Specification 6.4.1 IPS Global and Regional Nowcasting Maps 6.4.2 SIRMUP. 6.5 Testing Procedures Suggested Readings

21. Ionospheric Prediction and Forecasting 21SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013 7 Total Electron Content Modelling and Mapping 7.1 Introduction 7.2 TEC Evaluation Technique from RINEX Files 7.3 Total Electron Content Modelling 7.4 Global Total Electron Content Mapping 7.5 Regional Total Electron Content Mapping 7.6 Total Electron Content and Ionospheric Tomography. Suggested Readings 8 Ionospheric Forecasting 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Ionospheric Disturbances 8.2.1 Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance (SID) 8.2.2 Polar Cap Absorption 8.2.3 Ionospheric Storm 8.3 Ionospheric Forecasting Techniques 8.3.1 Statistical Methods 8.3.2 Neural Network Methods 8.3.3 Forecasting Maps Suggested Readings

22. Ionospheric Prediction and Forecasting 22SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013 9 Prediction and Nowcasting for HF Applications and Radio Links 9.1 Introduction 9.2 HF Ionospheric Performance Predictions 9.2.1 Geometrical Aspects or Basic Principles of an HF Radio Link: The Secant Law and Martyn Theorem 9.2.2 MUF Definition and Calculation 9.2.3 Determination of the Path of an Electromagnetic Wave in the Ionosphere 9.2.4 Definition and Calculation of Attenuation and LUF 9.2.5 Point to Point HF Prediction and Nowcasting 9.2.6 HF Area Prediction and Nowcasting 9.3 Existing Prediction and Nowcasting Propagation Procedures 9.3.1 IONCAP, VOACAP, and ICECAP. 9.3.2 The IPS Advanced Stand Alone Prediction System 9.3.3 France Telecom Method 9.4 What Purpose Do Ionospheric Prediction, Nowcasting, and Forecasting Serve? Suggested Readings 10 Current and Future Trends in Ionospheric Prediction and Forecasting 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Ionospheric Prediction and Forecasting in Radio Wave Propagation as an Important Contribution to Space Weather 10.3 Mitigation of Disturbances and Signal Errors in GNSS and Other Systems 10.3.1 Navigation Systems 10.3.2 Communication Systems 10.3.3 Surveillance 10.4 Lithosphere and Ionosphere Coupling 10.5 Conclusions Suggested Readings

23. Ionospheric Prediction and Forecasting 23SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013

24. Conclusion 24SWING Final Meeting | CNIT - Pisa, Italy13/12/2013 Thanks for your attention!