1. 2 nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005 © NERC All rights reserved BINCASTS: BGS Index Nowcasts and Forecasts Alan Thomson and Ellen Clarke, BGS, Edinburgh SDA Objectives There appears to be a consistent (even increasing?) demand for near real time proxies and forecasts of common geomagnetic indices, for space weather applications, and for other studies. This SDA is therefore designed to make available BGS forecasts and near real time estimates of common geomagnetic and solar indices, for academic and other communities, and to make use of BGS real time data capabilities to provide the highest accuracy in index estimates. BINCASTS is not a package as such, but a collection of data and plots found at www.geomag.bgs.ac.ukwww.geomag.bgs.ac.uk Need to integrate these index data with

2. 2 nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005 © NERC All rights reserved BINCASTS: User Survey and Needs No survey of the user community was done: data were solicited by ESA for SWENET. Some History: In the 1990s ESOC commissioned 1-27 day forecasts of Ap, F10.7 & solar cycle predictions of smoothed monthly Sunspot number, F10.7, Ap, Aa. Forecast software was written >10 years ago and only recently updated (on request from ESOC) to include a 1-3 day neural network forecasts of Ap. Nowcasts : Daily Aa est, 3-hourly aa est, daily Ap est, 3-hourly ap est, Forecasts : Daily solar radio flux F 10.7, geomagnetic Ap est index and DRX index (the daily average of hourly range in the north component of the field in the UK) all for 1-27 days ahead. Solar cycle forecasts of monthly F 10.7, Ap est, Aa and Sunspot number.

3. 2 nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005 © NERC All rights reserved BINCASTS: User Satisfaction Survey For the community to decide! Do you need more, or different indices and forecasts? Are you happy with the near-real time aspects and the quality? NB: we do not keep a detailed list of user types or names, but no commercial access is allowed. BGS indices and forecasts access 1988-2005

4. 2 nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005 © NERC All rights reserved BINCASTS: Business Plan BGS is committed long term to near real time operations, e.g. > We are a World Data Centre for geomagnetism > We have good working relationships and data access to observatories that contribute to IAGA indices and to INTERMAGNET > These data products are free to non-commercial users (since a UK public service commitment), at annual staff cost ~5keuro Forecast and nowcast data will be maintained for the foreseeable future > can integrate with other data providers if asked > can develop new proxy indices if there is a need. We encourage the advertising of these data and feedback: ecla@bgs.ac.uk Real time estimated Ap/ap

5. 2 nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005 © NERC All rights reserved BINCASTS: Prospects for Improvements Daily 1-27 day Ap and DRX forecasts The community is encouraged to suggest developments that would keep system attractive to users: - Range indices, dB/dt, … for GIC applications – commercial? We will continue to make our proxy indices as close as possible to official IAGA endorsed versions. We will work with other index institutes for the benefit of the space weather community. -INTERMAGNET has begun developments towards real-time operations