1. Environmental Sciences: Towards a Sustainable Future Chapter 5
The Human Population: Demographics

2. Ch. 5 Outline
The world population explosion including the United States. What about your state?
Different population growth rates in developed and developing nations.
Consequences of exploding populations.
Dynamics of population growth.

3. As of Oct 27, 2009…. World Population: 6,793,208,538 U. S
As of Oct 27, 2009…. World Population: 6,793,208,538 U.S. Population: 307,796,653
Where do you find the greatest population densities?

4. Major Shifts in Sustainability natural systems displaced by human ones
Paleolithic Time of early humans (40,000 to 10,000 yrs ago)  hunter-gatherers, settlements were small and short-lived
Neolithic Revolution (12,000 yrs ago in Middle East after colder and drier climate occurred)  development of animal domestication and agriculture, more reliable  efficient and abundant food source allowed for specialization of labor and permanent settlements  permitting better care and protection leading to greater population growth
Industrial Revolution (1800’s to present)  modern science and technological advancements energized by fossil fuels, first coal then oil and gas  expanding economies, global commerce, larger cities, exploitation of natural resources and POLLUTION

5. The Next Revolution…a return to GREEN
Environmental Revolution (1960’s…NOW?)  revolution implies an overthrow of “business as usual” to sustainable development, finding ways to limit degradation of natural resources and keep ecosystem cycles intact

6. The Human Population Explosion
9,000 human beings added to the
planet every hour

7. World Population Growth and Percent Growth Rate

8. Average Number of Children, Grandchildren, and Great Grandchildren
In America
West Germany
Africa 14 5
258…wow!

9. Developing country: generally used to describe a nation with a low level of material well being (low GNI, low GDP non industrialized)
The World Bank considers all low- and middle- income countries as "developing". In 2008, countries with Gross National Income (GNI) per capita below US$11,905 were considered developing.
Developed country: used to describe countries that have a high level of development /industrialization (high GNI or high HDI)
World Bank considered high income developed countries with GNI per capita above US$11,905 in 2008.
Some use other criteria such as Human Development Index (HDI), or Kofi Annan, former UN Secretary General, defined a developed country as “one that allows all its citizens to enjoy a free and healthy life in a safe environment."

10. Developing Vs. Developed Countries
Who is mostly contributing to the planet’s growing population?

11. Growth of Cities
Within the last year, over half of the world’s population now live in “cities” (including shanty towns)

12. Reasons for the Human Population Explosion…better health conditions
Causes of disease recognized
Improvements in nutrition
Discovery of antibiotics
Improvements in medicine
Increase in number of women who actually reach child-bearing age
Short doubling times in some countries

13. Changing Human Survivorship Curves: Went From A to B
% Survival
Age
Birth
Death A B

14. Consequences of Exploding Populations
deforestation
resource depletion
loss of agricultural land
biodiversity
disease
pest resistance
population migration
irrigation/water shortages
Wetlands degradation
More Population
Causes

15. Basic Human Needs are already limited
Drinkable Water
Edible Food
Safe Housing
Health Care
An Education
A Job

16. Developing or Developed Nations?
High fertility rates
High consumptive lifestyles: use 80% of world’s wealth
Intense poverty
Eat high on the food chain

17. Developing or Developed Nations?
Long doubling times
High environmental degradation
Twenty percent of the world’s population

18. Global Conditions for a Sustainable Population
Lower fertility rates
Improve the lives of people
Protect the environment

19. The Meaning of Absolute Poverty
Malnutrition
Illiteracy
Disease
Squalid surroundings
High infant mortality
Low life expectancy
17 million children under
5 die each year

20. Resolving the Problems of Population Growth and Land Availability
Subdividing farms
Opening more land for agriculture
Move to cities
Engage in illicit activities
Move to other countries
How do these “solutions” aggravate the problems?

21. Population Profiles

22. Population Profiles
Fertility Rate
< 2
Fertility Rate
> 2

23. Projected World Population: Three Different Fertility Scenarios

24. Population Projections for the United States

25. Population Projections: Developing Nations

26. The Demographic Transition

27. Demographic Transition Comparisons

28. 4 Phases of Demographic Transition
Phase I
 primitive stability‖
 high CBR, high CDR
Phase II
 epidemiologic transition
 declining CDR
Phase III
 significant population growth
 declining CBR from declining fertility rates
Phase IV
 ―modern stability‖
 low CBR and CDR
developed countries have completed the demographic transition
developing countries are in Phase II and III

29. Calculating Fertility Rates and Doubling Times
(CBR - CDR)/10 = Rate of Increase or decrease
in population as a percentage
(because now the rate would be
per 100 instead of per 1000)
70/ Rate of Increase = Doubling Time (in yrs)

30. Calculating Fertility Rates and Doubling Times: Practice
0.6%
0.2%

31. 3 Important American Environmental Organizations
1886 Audubon Society founded
1892 Sierra Club incorporated (John Muir as president)
1935 The Wilderness Society founded

32. Dec 2007 IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Please view your American Environmental Movement Timeline document
Add these 3 international events to your timeline…
Dec 2007 IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Released 4th climate change summary for policy makers scientifically showing that “warming of our climate system is unequivocal” and mostly caused by “anthropogenic GHG concentrations”

33. Dec. 7-20th 2009 COP15 UN Climate Change Conference in Denmark
The “Copenhagen Protocol”?? What will we decide to do to mitigate or correct global heating?
1975 CITES agreement
Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species restricted/regulated international trade of species