1. 1 Measuring Vocational Program Outcomes: What We Know and What’s Next Patrick Perry Vice Chancellor, Technology, Research, & Information Systems

2. 2 Who is this guy? Why should we listen to you? u Brad Pitt-like looks u Vin Diesel physique u I collect data and measure stuff for a living. u I have all the data. u Information Management & Institutional Research: l IM…therefore IR.

3. 3 My Credo u I realize that I will not succeed in answering all of your questions. Indeed, I will not answer any of them completely. The answers I provide will only serve to raise a whole new set of questions that lead to more problems, some of which you weren’t aware of in the first place. When my work is complete, you will be as confused as ever, but hopefully, you will be confused on a higher level and about more important things.

4. 4 Today’s Learning Outcomes u Learn about recent impacts of fee increases/budget cuts on Voc. enrollments u Learn about vocational course completion rates u Know the trends of awards/certificates conferred in the system u Learn about wages by degree type u Learn about wages by TOP code u Learn about the ARCC/1417 Wage Study (Pre-Post)

5. 5 Fee History of the CCC’s Time FramePer Unit FeesPrecipitating Event(s) Prior to Fall 1984$0 Fall 1984 - Spring 1991$5, capped at $50 per sem.Recession in 1982-83 Fall 1991 – Fall 1993$6, capped at $60 per sem. Recession/State Budget Crisis of 1991-93 Spring 1993 $10, cap eliminated, differential fee of $50/unit for holders of BA/BS Fall 1993 to Fall 1995$13, Differential fee of $50/unit Spring 1996 to Fall 1998$13, Differential fee eliminated Period of economic boom Spring 1999 to Fall 1999$12 Spring 2000 to Spring 2003$11 Fall 2003 – Spring 2003$18 Recession/State Budget Crisis of 2001-04 Fall 2004 – present$26

6. 6 Budget History of the CCC’s Fiscal YearSystem Funding (Billions) 1992-93$2.74 1993-942.729 1994-952.757 1995-962.948 1996-973.199 1997-983.530 1998-993.889 1999-004.087 2000-014.672 2001-024.956 2002-034.907 2003-044.969 2004-055.416

7. 7 Fee/Budget Impacts and Voc Programs: Sections Offered TermTotalOcc EdOcc Ed %Transfer Transfer % Basic Skills Basic Skills % Fall 1999157,01554,033-1.70%105,182-0.40%14,0786.70% Spring 2000160,72856,8345.20%107,9482.60%13,717-2.60% Fall 2000160,69755,422-2.50%108,7430.70%14,3794.80% Spring 2001165,90658,9886.40%112,2423.20%14,090-2.00% Fall 2001166,73558,385-1.00%113,5581.20%14,5363.20% Spring 2002172,81162,6787.40%117,2603.30%14,259-1.90% Fall 2002170,37359,528-5.00%115,873-1.20%15,6169.50% Spring 2003164,59757,973-2.60%112,731-2.70%14,561-6.80% Fall 2003160,57355,768-3.80%109,975-2.40%14,6320.50% Spring 2004165,26158,2094.40%113,1622.90%14,8311.40%

8. 8 Top 10 Curricular Areas Lost (FTES) Subject Area02-03 FTES 04-05 FTES FTES Loss Physical Education83,747.9065,980.2017,767.70 Information Technology, General34,482.1025,045.709,436.40 General Studies123,413.20114,348.909,064.30 Computer Software Development8,848.205,287.503,560.70 Office Technology/Office Computer Applications17,893.8014,632.303,261.50 Art32,512.6029,656.102,856.50 Music29,393.1026,709.302,683.80 Administration of Justice23,342.0020,919.202,422.80 Mathematics, General105,219.00103,253.301,965.70 Electronics and Electric Technology5,843.504,011.801,831.70

9. 9 Top 10 Curricular Areas Gained (FTES) Subject Area02-03 FTES 04-05 FTES FTES Gain Real Estate5,065.807,140.402,074.60 Manufacturing and Industrial Technology7,667.809,606.201,938.40 Anatomy and Physiology6,634.008,044.301,410.30 Fire Technology9,888.0010,906.201,018.20 Chemistry, General23,147.9023,992.00844.1 Nutrition, Foods, and Culinary Arts7,882.008,630.20748.2 Microbiology1,223.601,887.20663.6 Sociology15,641.0016,161.80520.8 Radiologic Technology2,460.302,945.40485.1 Speech Communication21,824.3022,179.40355.1

10. 10 Voc Ed Course Completion Rates Course Type1995-962004-05% change Transferable Courses68.3%69.5%1.8% Basic Skills Courses60.3%60.7%0.7% Vocational Courses77.2%84.3%9.2%

11. 11 Annual Volume of Awards/Certificates Degree Type1997-982004-05% change AA/AS Degrees60,55277,09327.3% Certificates23,62721,107-10.7%

12. 12 Effects of Degree Attainment on Wages u Recent study done in support of ARCC/Ab1417 Accountability Project l Catharine Liddicoat, CCC Research Unit

13. 13 Effects of Degree Attainment on Wages u Methodology: l Take all award recipients in 2000-2001 who were u Not enrolled in 01-02 and 02-03; and u Not transferred to a 4-yr college; and u Had a record on EDD’s wage file l Cut post-attainment wages by award type and TOP code of award (2+ years after)

14. 14 Study Domain u 2000-2001 “Completers Cohort” had 14,516 students l 12,105 earned one award; 2,411 earned 2 or more u 78.7% had wage data for all 3 years out u Looking at only single award earners who had 3 years of wage data: l Study N=9,490

15. 15 Study: Median and Mean Wages Subsequent YearsMedianMeanStd. Dev. Wages 01-02$31,515$35,244$24,302 Wages 02-03$35,279$39,491$26,396 Wages 03-04$37,174$41,444$28,206

16. 16 Study: Wages by Award Type Award TypeWages 01-02Wages 02-03Wages 03-04 Assoc. of Arts$25,741$29,215$30,679 Assoc. Of Science$38,498$46,002$48,942 Certificate, <6 units$46,460$48,110$48,603 Certificate, 6-18 units$24,504$26,267$27,384 Certificate 18-30 units$30,447$33,297$35,252 Certificate, 30-60 units$30,419$33,369$34,520 Certificate, 60+ units$36,696$40,687$44,049

17. 17 TOP 5 Highest Earning: u 5. Admin. Of Justice ($54,158) u 4. Plumbing & Pipefitting ($56,628) u 3. Corrections ($62,414) u 2. Physicians Assistant ($64,658) u 1. Surveying ($70,626)

18. 18 Bottom 5: u 5. Fashion Design ($16,206) u 4. Animal Science ($14,086) u 3. Home Health Aide ($14,081) u 2. Cosmetology ($11,616) u 1. Spanish ($9,307)

19. 19 Wage Study: Wages Pre-Post 1994199519961997199819992000200120022003 ccc median income $19,19721,00422,99525,69627,46829,10932,45642,89147,33148,718 median household income $34,10035,30037,10039,00040,60043,80046,90047,17747,50049,320

20. 20 Wage Study: Wages Pre-Post

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22. 22 ARCC/AB1417 u Is the next Accountability report of the CCC System u Features College-level metrics and System-level metrics

23. 23 ARCC/AB1417 u Ideally, we desired to produce program completion rates for all voc. Programs, but… u MIS does not collect data on student program of study

24. 24 ARCC/AB1417 u Metrics Associated with Vocational outcomes: l Student Progress & Achievement Rate-College Metric u FTF cohort tracked over 6 years u Tracks students who attempt transfer or degree- applicable level math + English courses as “behavioral intent to complete” u Outcomes: Transfer, Transfer-prepared, transfer- directed, AA/AS, Certificate, or “earned 30 units” threshhold

25. 25 ARCC/AB1417 u Annual Successful Course Completion Rate (Vocational Courses)—College Metric l Same as in PFE Report

26. 26 ARCC/AB1417 u Annual Volume of Degrees/Certificates Conferred (System Metric) l Cut by TOP code u Increase in Total Personal Income as a result of degree/certificate attainment (System metric)

27. 27 ARCC/AB1417 u Draft report sent to college ~October u 60-day review of draft report, data resubmission allowed u Peer Groupings created for metrics u Final draft of report to field ~January u 30 day “response to report and local analysis”; college comments made a part of the report u Report due March u Colleges have 1 year to have local board review report and acknowledge having interacted with it

28. 28 Your Turn… u We are always open to hearing good research ideas…feel free to contact us so we may assist. u Thanks for inviting me to your conference!